塔城盆地暴雪预报方法和白灾的防御对策

从1970--1997年28a的资料中筛选出30个个例为对象,对其从高、中、低、地面4个层次形势场进行对比和分类,对产生暴雪的物理机制进行诊断分析,采用统计预报中的多因子综合相关预报方法筛选预报因子,用集合预报方法集成预报结果。据此提出畜牧业生产防御暴雪的对策。     

国庆60周年演练中一次降水过程的短时预报服务

由于降水的原因,原定于2009年9月5日晚间的国庆60周年彩排向后平移24小时进行。在预报北京地区有连阴雨的天气背景下,利用风云2C、新一代天气雷达网、地面自动站、垂直风廓线、微波辐射计等多种高时空分辨率探测资料,结合BJ-RUC产品,对北京天安门降水进行精细化的短时预报。通过采取严密监视天气变化,跟进式精细化预报服务的措施,顺利完成了这次重大气象服务的保障任务。再次证明多种新型探测资料在对大气物理状况的释用,填补常规探测资料时空分布的不足等方面的应用价值,这些资料有助于对天气系统位置、强度变化的确定;雷达回波拼图可以得到较大范围降雨区的位置、移向和移速,在天气系统较为稳定的情况下可以进行2小时以上的外推。     

2007年9—11月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

2007年9-11月冷空气频繁,气温变幅大,热带气旋活跃,给中期天气预报增加了一定的难度.为积累预报经验,提高中期预报准确率,对9-11月T213模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行对比分析.结果表明,T213、ECMWF和日本模式对亚洲中高纬大气环流调整具有较好的中期预报性能,对转折性、灾害性天气的预报有较强指示意义.综合来看,ECMWF对天气系统和要素的预报误差最小,T213模式误差最大,日本模式温度预报性能与ECMWF相当.对0713号台风登陆前的位置和移速,ECMWF预报较为准确,T213模式对台风登陆前移速预报偏慢,对台风登陆后的位置预报偏差最小,日本模式对台风位置和强度预报较为失败.     

高台地震台依法保护地震监测环境的经验

阐述了高台地震台观测环境现状,通过高台地震台监测环境保护实践活动,认识到：法律、法规是地震监测环境得到有利保护的重要保障;观测环境保护工作需要依靠当地政府及各部门的重视和支持;地震台站工作人员要加强法律、法规的学习和运用,担负起地震台站监测环境保护的任务。     

广西客观预报工具竞赛工作总结分析

通过组织客观预报工具竞赛,促进客观、定量、精细化预报业务的发展,达到提高预报准确率的目的。     

海底地震有限断层破裂模型对近场海啸数值预报的影响

快速准确的海啸源模型是近场海啸精确预警的关键.尽管目前还没有办法直接对其进行正演定量计算,但是可以通过多源地震、海啸观测数据进行反演或联合反演推算.不同的海啸源可能导致不同的预警结论,了解不同类型海啸源适用性、评估海啸源特征差异对近场海啸的影响,无论对于海啸预警还是海啸模拟研究尤为重要.本文评估分析了6种不同同震断层模型对2011年3月11日日本东北地震海啸近场数值预报的影响,重点对比分析了有限断层模型与均一滑动场模型对近场海啸产生、传播、淹没特征的影响及各自的误差.研究表明:近场海啸波能量分布主要取决于海啸源分布特征,特别是走向角的差异对海啸能量分布影响较大;有限断层模型对海啸灾害最为严重的39°N以南沿岸地区的最大海啸爬坡高度明显优于均一滑动场模型结果;综合对比DART浮标、GPS浮标及近岸潮位站共32个站次的海啸波幅序列结果发现有限断层模型整体平均绝对/相对误差比均一滑动场模型平均误差要低,其中Fujii海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差最小,分别是0.56m和26.71%.UCSB海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差次之.3个均一滑动场模型中USGSCMT海啸源模拟精度最高.相对于深海、浅海观测站,有限断层模型比均一滑动场模型对近岸观测站计算精度更高.海啸源误差具有显著的方向性,可能与反演所采用的波形数据的代表性有关;谱分析结果表明Fujii海啸源对在12至60min主频波谱的模拟要优于UCSB海啸源.海啸源中很难真实反映海底地震破裂过程,然而通过联合反演海啸波形数据推算海啸源的方法可以快速确定海啸源,并且最大限度的降低地震破裂过程与海啸产生的不确定性带来的误差.     

Pelagic longline fisheries in southeastern/south Brazil. Who cares about the law?

The fishing industry has been facing problems related to catch yields, predatory competition and economic collapse. Management should be based on substantial scientific studies and the state's ability to implement these. In Brazil, the surface longline fishery has been in existence since the 1950s, and remains of great economic importance. This study analyzes 179 legal instruments (1934–2014), divided into restrictive, administrative and promotional, comparing with catches landed (1996–2011). The results show that there was a complete disrespect for the regulations, wherein fleets continued landing prohibited or size limited species, such as Kajikia albida, Makaira nigricans, Alopias superciliosus, A. vulpinus, Carcharhinus longimanus, Galeorhinus galeus and Xiphias gladius. Furthermore, divergent regulatory provisions have hindered understanding/implementation of regulations by all those involved. Being a country of continental proportions and with different longline fisheries along the coast, conducting scientific studies and the development of normative approaches becomes a huge challenge. In a dynamic activity such as fishing, the constant review of these regulations will allow fisheries management to become more accurate and in accordance with the aspirations of the different interests involved. Despite the surface longline fishery having operated for 60 years in Brazil, the existence of incongruous laws makes the management and control of this activity incompatible with the conservation of species. The lack of regulations governing this fishery creates a "gap", increasing the risk of extinction of species (target and bycatch) and the future collapse of this activity.     

Potential impacts of alternative regulatory interventions on the recreational value of angling on the Breede River estuary,South Africa

This study investigated the support for, and potential impacts of, alternative management measures to address declining fish stocks in the Breede River estuary. A survey of residents and visitors was carried out during 2011–2012. Angling was the most important attraction of the estuary, and accounted for at least R 25 million in annual expenditure in the area. The majority of recreational anglers were concerned about the status of fish stocks and felt that additional regulations were necessary. There was greatest support for banning the trolling of artificial lures, and majority support for a closed area and an upper size limit for one of the main species targeted – the dusky kob Argyrosomus japonicus. The options of a night ban on fishing and a closed season received little support. Ratings of alternative scenarios suggested that anglers were more sensitive to fish abundance than to regulations. Modelled results showed that regulations resulting in increased abundance of fish, and large A. japonicus in particular, would have a positive impact on angling value of the estuary, whereas further declines in fish stocks would result in a decrease in expenditure in the area.     

Firewood consumption amongst poor inhabitants in a semiarid tropical forest: A case study from Piura,northern Peru

Semiarid forests are disappearing on a large scale and are considered to be the most endangered ecosystems in the lowland tropics. The deforestation rate in Peru is among the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean. Poor people are often more dependent on forest resources than those who are well off. However, little is known about poor people's use of forest resources or the effect of logging in semiarid forests. The article deals with household energy use and the source of firewood (bought or collected, either locally or over some distance) in two semiarid forests in Piura, northern Peru. The most used tree species and the vulnerability of the species are also examined in order to understand deforestation. Peru has introduced regulations on the use of forest resources and the article focuses on how these regulations are locally understood. The methodology includes questionnaires, recording local household practices, and in-depth interviews with local informants and both governmental and non-governmental organizations. The daily wood consumption rates per person were measured. The findings reveal that household economy is not the only factor affecting daily firewood consumption rate, but also climate, ecology, access to firewood, and traditions are contributing factors.     

天津港气象水文综合预报系统

天津港气象水文综合预报系统是针对天津港安全生产特点和需求,集气象、水文要素监测实况和预报于一体、信息量大、获取及时、使用方便的一个具有行业特色的实用专业平台。该系统采用WRF大气模式和ECOM、ADI两种海洋模式以及计算浪高的半经验半理论的公式对海上大风、能见度、风暴潮、风浪进行了模拟计算,并依据自动站的观测数据进行了验证,从而实现了港口大雾、大风、风浪和风暴潮这四个方面的预报模拟,并提供了相关的可视化产品。