Monthly streamflow forecasting using neuro-wavelet techniques and input analysis

ABSTRACT

Combinations of low-frequency components (also known as approximations) resulting from the wavelet decomposition are tested as inputs to an artificial neural network (ANN) in a hybrid approach, and compared to classical ANN models for flow forecasting for 1, 3, 6 and 12 months ahead. In addition, the inputs are rewritten in terms of the flow, revealing what type of information was being provided to the network, in order to understand the effect of the approximations on the forecasting performance. The results show that the hybrid approach improved the accuracy of all tested models, especially for 1, 3 and 6 months ahead. The input analyses show that high-frequency components are more important for shorter forecast horizons, while for longer horizons, they may worsen the model accuracy.     

���ڷ���������ڵ������Ʒ��ĵ����TEC����Ԥ���о�

??????????е??????????????????????????????????????????IGS????????TEC??????????????????????ò??????λ???30??40 ???50 ?????????з??????????????????????0.8 TECU???????????仯?????????￡????????????????????????????γ???й??     

阿克库勒地区白垩系层序地层样式及油气勘探有利区带预测[

为预测塔里木盆地阿克库勒地区白垩系油气勘探的有利区带,运用层序地层学理论,根据岩心、测井和地震资料,建立了该区白垩系层序地层格架,并探讨了其与沉积、构造演化的对应关系。结果表明：阿克库勒地区白垩系包括2个二级层序,分别相当于巴什基奇克组和卡普沙良群,其中卡普沙良群又细分为3个三级层序。研究区发育辫状河三角洲、曲流河三角洲、湖泊等沉积相类型。油气勘探应主要寻找阿克库勒地区卡普沙良群底部Sq1的低位及高位体系域的储集砂体,平面上以研究区中南部的三角洲前缘相带储层为最优。     

内蒙古镶黄旗道郎和都格矿区钨多金属成矿地质背景与综合定位预测方法

郎和都格矿区地表沙土和草原覆盖严重,直接寻找钨多金属矿的信息较少。地质地球化学研究结果表明,与钨多金属矿关系密切的是早白垩世钾长花岗岩,赋矿围岩主要是二叠纪辉石闪长岩。根据围岩与矿体之间的物性差异,完成了矿区1∶1万地质填图、磁法和重力测量,对数据进行重磁联合反演,识别出3条走向北东、长度800～3 000 m、宽度50～100 m的重要的构造蚀变带（分别对应于负磁异常带）,均分布在矿区西北侧的辉石闪长岩中,且平行于辉石闪长岩和钾长花岗岩的接触带。预测了6个综合物探异常区,也位于矿区西北侧的辉石闪长岩分布区,单个异常面积为500 800 m²,异常深度不超过1 000 m。经钻探工程验证,在3个异常部位发现了隐伏的构造破碎带型钨多金属找矿靶区,钨多金属矿体埋藏深度为150～650 m,单个矿体厚度为2～4 m。表明成矿地质条件分析与重磁联合反演相结合的定位预测方法,在覆盖区寻找钨矿效果明显,值得进一步推广。     

中国云南小江流域泥石流暴发与ENSO的关联性

选取典型泥石流发育区云南小江流域为研究对象,利用典型泥石流沟滇北小江流域蒋家沟的长期观测资料,分析了小江流域泥石流暴发与该流域邻近的沾益及会泽常规气象站夏季（6—8月）降水的关系,以及小江流域及其周边地区夏季降水与ENSO的关系。结果表明,蒋家沟泥石流暴发的次数与夏季降水量有显著的正相关关系,而夏季降水和前期的Nino3区海表温度（SST）呈显著的负相关;每年泥石流发生的次数与首场泥石流发生的早晚关系密切,而激发首场泥石流的降水量与冬春Nino3区SST呈负相关;泥石流暴发次数与大雨日数关系密切,而大雨日数与Nino3区SST具有较好的对应关系。这说明冬春季Nino3区SST对小江流域泥石流的暴发次数有显著的影响,形成了ENSO与小江流域及蒋家沟泥石流发生的关联性。分析结果亦表明,Nino3区1月SST与当年蒋家沟泥石流次数具有显著的负相关关系,El Ni?o位相年泥石流少发而La Ni?a位相年泥石流多发。Nino3区SST变化最少要超前泥石流暴发4个月,因而ENSO可以为云南北部泥石流的预测预报提供一种指标信息,从而有可能利用ENSO冬季信息来预测小江流域及其周边地区（滇北）当年夏季泥石流活动。     

2010年汛期多模式对山东降水预报的检验

为提高数值预报模式在山东汛期降水的预报能力,为降水预报及模式物理参数方案选择和调整提供客观依据,对2010年汛期（6-9月）山东区域MM5、WRF-RUC（WRF快速循环同化系统）和T639模式24 h、48 h累积降水预报产品,进行晴雨、一般性降水和分量级降水TS评分及平均绝对误差、平均误差分析。结果表明：从晴雨预报准确率来看,3种模式相差不大;一般性降水和小雨预报,MM5模式评分结果最差,T639模式预报效果最好;中雨以上量级,24 h降水T639模式预报效果最好,特别是24 h大暴雨评分T639模式达到了10.37 %,而48 h降水T639模式预报效果下降明显。无论24 h降水还是48 h降水,除9月WRF-RUC模式平均绝对误差最小外,6-8月T639模式平均绝对误差均为最低,WRF-RUC模式24 h和48 h降水各月平均误差均为负偏差;不同的降水预报检验方案和天气过程类型对检验结果有一定的影响。     

基于余水位订正的海洋潮位推算关键技术研究

从分潮数目选择、调和常数稳定性优化两个关键环节入手,选择11个主要分潮用于潮位推算,并利用邻近长期站对中短期验潮站调和常数做差比订正,显著提高了中短期验潮站的潮位推算精度。     

The evolution of legal instruments and the sustainability of the Peruvian anchovy fishery

Landings statistics of the Peruvian anchovy fishery show that the fishery went through a phase of explosive and uncontrolled growth from its establishment in the mid-fifties until its collapse in 1972. After the collapse, a second phase from 1973 to 1984 was characterized by unfavorable warm ocean conditions and low catches. A third phase, from 1984 to the present, with propitious ocean-environmental conditions and modern governance, can be further divided into a controlled growth period (1985-1994) and a sustainable landings' period (1995 to present). The most recent period of the third phase has enabled the fishery to maintain its catches and be labeled as one of the most sustainable fisheries worldwide. This article highlights the evolution of the legal system that provides for the current sustainable landings and governance of this fishery. Results show that General Fisheries Acts were enacted independently of failures to sustain anchovy landings. The three Peruvian Fisheries Acts were a reflection of broader national socio-political changes and were enacted mainly to define the role of the state and private investment and to delimit foreign involvement in the fishery industry. By contrast, the enactment of secondary legislation to control quotas and fishing seasons increased as the fishery moved towards stable landings. During this phase, enacted secondary legislation showed also a clear peak during strong positive sea surface anomalies driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 1997-1998, providing evidence of rapid adaptive management. The role of Fisheries Acts in defining access rights at the national level from a multilevel governance approach is discussed and further key elements that contributed to the transition towards sustainability are suggested.