New electron energy transfer rates for vibrational excitation of N2

In this paper we present the results of a study of the electron cooling rate, the production rates of vibrationally excited N₂(v), and the production frequency of the N₂ vibrational quanta arising from the collisions of electrons with unexcited N₂(0) and vibrationally excited N₂(1) molecules as functions of the electron temperature. The electron energy transfer rates for vibrational excitation of N₂ have been calculated and fit to analytical expressions by use of the revised vibrationally excited N₂ cross sections. These new analytical expressions are available to the researcher for quick reference and accurate computer modeling with a minimum of calculations.     

APPLICATION OF THE TRRL FLOOD ESTIMATION MODEL IN HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING FOR CATCHMENTS WITH LIMITED DATA A CASE STUDY

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Stochastic differential dynamic programming for multi-reservoir system control

: As with all dynamic programming formulations, differential dynamic programming (DDP) successfully exploits the sequential decision structure of multi-reservoir optimization problems, overcomes difficulties with the nonconvexity of energy production functions for hydropower systems, and provides optimal feedback release policies. DDP is particularly well suited to optimizing large-scale multi-reservoir systems due to its relative insensitivity to state-space dimensionality. This advantage of DDP encourages expansion of the state vector to include additional multi-lag hydrologic information and/or future inflow forecasts in developing optimal reservoir release policies. Unfortunately, attempts at extending DDP to the stochastic case have not been entirely successful. A modified stochastic DDP algorithm is presented which overcomes difficulties in previous formulations. Application of the algorithm to a four-reservoir hydropower system demonstrates its capabilities as an efficient approach to solving stochastic multi-reservoir optimization problems. The algorithm is also applied to a single reservoir problem with inclusion of multi-lag hydrologic information in the state vector. Results provide evidence of significant benefits in direct inclusion of expanded hydrologic state information in optimal feedback release policies.     

卫星云图在短时降水预报中的应用

把卫星云图分析同数值预报产品及常规资料相结合,给出了淮南市短时降水预报指标,以提高卫星云图在短时预报中的可用性。     

The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments PartII: The Operational Forecasting Experiments

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风暴的自动识别,跟踪与预报

利用多普勒雷达体扫描资料对风暴进行实时地自动识别、跟踪、结构分析和临近预报,风暴的识别基于其个连续区域的体积和雷达反射率大于给定的体积阈值和反射率阈值;用矩心跟踪法匹配相邻两时刻的风暴,对风暴的合并与分裂进行了处理;根据风暴在过去各个时刻的中心位置和体积,利用最小二乘法进行线性外推来预报其在下一时刻的位置和面积。结果表明本方法能较好地识别、跟踪和警戒强对流性天气。     

THE DESIGN OF A LIMITED AREA MESOSCALE MODEL AND PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS

Based on the dynamic frame of a 6-layer primitive equations model, a mesoscale primitive equations model is designed that includes larger range of physical processes. It is run in (x, y, σ) system with the model atmosphere topping at 10 hPa and availability of multiple conditions of horizontal boundaries, both horizontal and vertical resolution are adjustable; the precipitation scheme includes large scale and deep cumulus convective precipitation; the ground temperature is computed using surface heat budget equations; exchanges between land atmosphere and between ocean and atmosphere are considered, the Liouis format is used in the computation of vertical exchange budget; a scheme that combines the second and fourth order is employed in horizontal diffusion in which the coefficient is the function of the location of grid points and wind fields; the integration scheme is in the form of economic central difference.With the resolution that horizontal grids are spaced at intervals of 80 km and vertical length is unequally spaced into 16 layers, the model is experimented with 26 cases of forecast. The result has shown stable model computation, good prediction of major synoptic patterns and close reproduction of real precipitation. Statistics for a number of assessment indexes are given in this paper and comparisons are made to the original 6-layer model in respect of the forecasting ability and model properties.     

“97-11-24”和“97-11-27”大暴雨过程T106物理量预报场分析

对1997年11月24日和1997年11月27日两次江西大暴雨过程的T106物理量预报场进行了分析,得到T106物理量场对稳定切变的暴雨形势有较好的预报能力等一些有意义的结果。     

Real-time estimation of hazard for landslides triggered by rainfall

 Landslide movements triggered by rainfall can be foreseen in real-time by modelling the relationship between rainfall amount and landslide occurrence. This paper deals with the problem of the reliability of the FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfalls) model when applied to forecasting landslide movements in the usual condition of poor historical information availability. In this case, the identification of the admissibility field for the model parameters, instead of a point estimation, leads to an improvement of the forecasting reliability. Moreover, this approach makes the model capable of taking into account information embodied in periods of heavy rain but without movement. The concepts of informative content and foreseeability of landslide movements are introduced and their duality is analyzed. The effectiveness of the estimation procedure described has been tested by application on two landslides located in southern Italy. Received: 15 October 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

构造物理化学基本问题与金矿成矿预测

本文初步定义构造物理化学为研究地壳物质在构造力作用下发生的物理变化和化学变化相互关系的领域,提出该领域研究的基本问题：构造附加静水压力、构造影响热和构造岩石物理性质、成岩成矿ｐＴ变化及相组成,讨论了该领域的发展和应用前景。本文还以《金矿重点矿化区带隐仅矿床找矿方法和预测》项目（ＪＧ９４７１１０）成果为主,介绍用构造物理化学成矿找矿理论、方法开展金矿成矿预测方面的主要进展。