地震电磁辐射前兆异常特征和异常指标关系研究

根据收集的地震电磁类资料, 总结分析了地震电磁异常特征及震例的异常指标间的关系。据统计, 一般对M≥ 3.0地震, 电磁异常平均出现在震前10～45天, 异常的平均传播距离为100～600 km, 震级越大, 异常提前出现的时间越早, 异常传播的距离越大; 一定范围内, 震级和异常提前出现的时间、 震级和异常传播的距离存在简单的线性关系。地震发生在异常出现后两个月之内的概率达93.5%。有88%的地震发生在异常结束后或异常结束当天, 有98%的地震发生在异常结束后20天以内。     

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the western part of Bangladesh

Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the western part of Bangladesh have been analysed. Standardized precipitation index method is used to compute the severity of droughts from the rainfall data recorded in 12 rainfall gauge stations for the period of 1961–1999. An artificial neural network is used to estimate missing rainfall data. Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to map the spatial extent of droughts of different severities in multiple time scales. Critical analysis of rainfall is also carried to find the minimum monsoon and dry months rainfall require in different parts of the study area to avoid rainfall deficit. The study shows that the north and north‐western parts of Bangladesh are most vulnerable to droughts. A significant negative relationship between multiple ENSO index and rainfall is observed in some stations. Analysis of seasonal rainfall distribution, rainfall reliability and long‐term rainfall trend is also conducted to aid prediction of future droughts in the area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

核磁共振测井T2cutoff确定方法及适用性分析

T2cutoff是核磁共振测井中的一个重要参数,它决定了核磁共振测井测量的有效孔隙度、渗透率、自由流体饱和度、束缚水饱和度等参数的精确程度.目前国内外普遍选取的T2cutoff为:砂泥岩储层取33ms,碳酸盐岩储层取92ms.实际研究发现T2cutoff应是变化的量而并非单一值.简单的运用单一的T2cutoff来计算各种地层参数势必会产生误差甚至得出错误的解释结论.叙述了33ms作为T2cutoff的由来及其不合理性,同时分析了目前国内外确定T2cutoff的各种方法及其适用性.     

The Polar Cap (PC) indices: Relations to solar wind parameters and global magnetic activity

The polar geomagnetic activity resulting from solar wind–magnetosphere interactions can be characterized the Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN and PCS. PC index values are derived from polar magnetic variations calibrated on a statistical basis such that the index approximate values in units of mV/m of the interplanetary “geo-effective” (or “merging”) electric field (E_M) conveyed by the solar wind. The timing and amplitude relations of the PC index to solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are reported. The solar wind effects are parameterized in terms of the geo-effective electric field (E_M) and the dynamical pressure (P_DYN). The PC index has a delayed and damped response to E_M variations and display saturation-like effects for E_M values exceeding 10 mV/m. Steady or slowly varying levels of solar wind dynamical pressure have little or no impact on the PC index above the effects related to E_M for which the solar wind velocity is also a factor. Sharp increases in the dynamical pressure generate impulsive variations in the PC index comprising a initial negative impulse of 5–10 min duration followed by a positive impulse lasting 10–20 min. Typical amplitudes of both the negative and the positive impulses are 0.2–0.5 units. A sharp decrease in the pressure produces the inverse sequence of pulses in the PC index. Auroral substorm activity represented by the AL index level has a marked influence on the average PC/E_M level at the transition from very quiet (AL0 nT) to disturbed conditions while more or less disturbed conditions (AL<−100 nT) have no systematic effect on the average PC/E_M values. At distinct substorm events the PC/E_M ratio has a minimum (0.8) in the pre-onset phase at around 20 min before substorm onset. The average ratio gradually increases in the expansion phase to reach a maximum value (1.1) at around 40 min after substorm onset (or 20 min after the largest (negative) peak in AL). At substorm recovery during the next 2 h the PC/E_M ratio decreases. Finally, we report on the application of polar magnetic variations to model the disturbance storm time (Dst) index development during magnetic storms by using the PC index as a source function to quantify the energy input to the ring current representing accumulated storm energy and characterized by the Dst index.     

基于可靠度理论的滑坡稳定性及其影响因素分析

基于可靠度理论,利用Morgenstern-Price法、Ordinary法、Bishop法和Janbu法等4类极限平衡方法对台州市北水南调工程朱溪引水段Ⅷ号滑坡的稳定性进行了分析,设计了最不利组合、最有利组合、平均值组合的确定性分析方案,目的是为可靠度计算结果提供对比基准;设计了Monte-Carlo循环次数为5 000,50 000,500 000,5 000 000次等4种计算工况,岩土参数的概率分布函数为正态分布、三角形分布和均匀分布等3种情况,方差等于0.5,1.0,2.0,3.0,4.0,5.0倍初始实验方差等6种计算方案,岩土参数间相关性在-1.0～1.0间按0.25等幅变化的9种情况。研究发现,循环次数仅对安全系极值有较大影响,对可靠度指标影响不大;分布函数和数据离散性均会对结果精度造成影响;参数相关性仅对失效概率造成较大影响。     

临近基坑既有建筑物地基的抗剪强度指标取值问题

基坑开挖不仅改变了半无限空间体边界条件,卸载时还会引起周围地层移动,导致既有建筑物地基承载力的附加损失。在临近基坑既有建筑物地基承载力计算中,其抗剪强度参数的选取有别于斜坡上地基计算参数的常规取值方法。通过探讨临近基坑既有建筑物地基抗剪强度指标的取值问题,建议以地基土的完全软化强度与残余抗剪强度的平均值作为临近基坑既有建筑物地基抗剪强度指标,并据此估算了临近基坑既有建筑物地基承载力。所得结果与斜坡上地基承载力的试验值和理论解对比分析后显示出其具有一定的合理性。所建议的抗剪强度指标取值方法,还有待于试验的进一步验证。     

中国近50年降水变化趋势及突变的Hurst指数试验

利用1953-2002年中国722个台站的降水资料,应用分形理论中的R/S分析法基本原理,设计了两种降水Hurst指数试验,研究预测了中国五大区年降水的气候变化趋势及其突变。通过两种试验对比得出:年降水20年试验能有效确定降水状态的转折点,进而判断降水变化的突变。研究表明:中国五大区年雨日有着完全一致的减少趋势,期间不存在年雨日由减少转为增加的突变点。今后年雨日仍将继续减少,依照五大区气候倾向率,未来10年,东部北方区、西北区、东部南方区、西南区、青藏高原区平均每10年减少雨日分别为6.8天、4.1天、5.9天、11.4天和3.7天。中国1953-2002年,有三次降水量突变。第一次年降水量由减少突变为增加,它包括了东部北方区的H11980、西北区的H11981和青藏高原的H11982;第二次年降水量由增加突变为减少,它依次包括上述三区的H21988,H21985和H21987;第三次年降水量由减少突变为增加,它仅包括青藏高原的H31991。中国五大区中,东部北方区和西北区的年降水量未来10年仍将继续减少,依气候倾向率,它们平均每10年分别减少15.3 mm和6.2 mm。东部南方区、西南区、青藏高原未来10...     

Late Quaternary lake response to climate change and anthropogenic impact: biomarker evidence from Lake Constance sediments

This study used organic matter in oligotrophic Lake Constance (southern Germany) to reconstruct lake environment and to disentangle the multiple factors, such as climate change and human impacts, which influence sedimentation in large lakes. A sediment core from Upper Lake Constance, which represents 16,000 years of Late Glacial and Holocene lake history, was analysed for organic biomarkers, hydrogen index and elements calcium, strontium, and magnesium. Magnetic susceptibility was measured to establish a high-resolution stratigraphic framework for the core and to obtain further information about changes with respect to relative allochthonous versus autochthonous sedimentation. Dinosterol—a biomarker for dinoflagellates—and calcium have low concentrations in Younger Dryas sediments and consistently high concentrations between 10,500 and 7,000 cal. years BP. These variations are attributed to changes in lake productivity, but are not reflected in the proportion of total organic carbon within the sediment. During the Younger Dryas and between 6,000 and 2,800 cal. years BP, concentrations and accumulation rates of land-plant-derived C₂₉-steroids (β-sitosterol, stigmastanol and stigmasterol), in combination with a relatively low HI, indicate periods of enhanced terrigenous input to the lake. For the Younger Dryas, higher runoff can be attributed to a cold climate, leading to decreased vegetation cover and increased erosion. After 6,000 cal. years BP, high terrestrial input may be explained by enhanced precipitation. Biomarker and HI results, in combination with archaeological studies, raise the question as to whether lakeshore settlements affected sedimentation in Upper Lake Constance between 6,000 and 2,800 cal. years BP.     

汶川8.0级地震震害遥感定量化初步研究以都江堰城区破坏为例

随着遥感技术的飞速发展, 遥感在地震应急救援、 灾害调查和损失评估中的作用越来越显著。 然而由于缺乏系统的遥感震害定量研究, 使得遥感的实用性常常受到质疑。 文中叙述了遥感震害定量研究的基本思路, 提出了遥感震害指数的概念与定量分析的基本模型, 并以2008年汶川8.0级地震造成的都江堰城区震害为例, 依据建筑物震害遥感解译结果和地面震害调查结果, 进行了都江堰城区部分街区的建筑物遥感震害指数和地面调查震害指数的统计分析, 并建立了两者之间的统计关系。 初步研究结果表明, 依据高分辨率航空遥感影像和卫星雷达图像建立的建筑物遥感震害指数与地面调查震害指数及房屋倒塌率存在显著的对应性。 因此, 通过遥感震害定量化研究, 将为地震震害调查、 损失评估提供有力的方法和工具。     

A study on feasibility of SI for identification of earthquake damages in Taiwan

Using the actual damage data of the strong earthquakes in Taiwan, the effectiveness of the earthquake risk indices, namely, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral intensity (SI), is verified. PGA and Housner's [Housner GW. Spectrum intensity of strong-motion earthquakes. In: Proceedings of symposium on earthquakes and blast effects on structures. EERI, UCLA; 1952] definition of SI are directly compared. A three-parameter spectral intensity system with spectral intensities SI_a, SI_v, and SI_d in the acceleration, velocity, and displacement regions, respectively, is discussed. Here, the effectiveness of SI, SI_a, SI_v, and SI_d has been compared by using the available earthquake-damage data in Taiwan. Three period ranges, namely, 0.1–0.6, 0.6–1.6, and 1.6–3.0 s were used for structures of 1–6 stories, 7–20 stories, and 21 and more stories, respectively. The results indicate that the three-parameter system is a good risk index of the damage potential of earthquakes.