Source parameters determination for earthquakes in Kushiro,Japan considering source time function

This paper applies a new formulation to do moment tensor inversion for earthquakes in the Kushiro area of Japan. Comparing with conventional moment tensor inversion method, the new one takes the effect of source time function into consideration. For the inversion, best solution is obtained by minimizing the difference between the observed seismograms and the synthetic ones. And the best-fitting focal depth is determined from the variance reduction. The results indicate that half duration of source time function is proportional to the magnitude of earthquakes. Large earthquakes have long half duration, whereas that of moderate-small earthquakes is comparatively shorter. The focal mechanisms of all three earthquakes are of thrust fault type, which is mainly ascribed to the collision of the North American plate with the Eurasia plate in the late Cretaceous or Paleogene.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty.     

从构造热事件探讨湖南志留纪沉积时限兼论盆地演化特征

湖南地区志留纪的沉积时限一直以来争议颇多,笔者通过对该区沉积特征及层序地层、构造运动分析发现:小溪峪组属于一套有障壁海岸浅海细碎屑沉积,是海水由南东向北西退却期的沉积响应,属于早期高水位体系域;泥盆系云台观组属一套海侵型的海相陆源碎屑岩沉积,从野外的界面特征分析云台观组为一套开阔海岸受波浪作用明显的以石英砂为主体的沉积物,属于广西运动之后由东南向北西形成的海侵过程的沉积响应。小溪峪组与云台观组二者所属沉积盆地环境和演化不同,其界面属于Ⅰ型层序界面,不整合接触。广西运动导致的江南造山带的隆起在430Ma左右结束,志留纪沉积盆地应大部分消亡,由此认为志留纪沉积盆地接受的沉积物时间也应在相对应时段中,小溪峪组在湖南地区不存在晚志留纪沉积物。     

Foraging strategy of little auks under divergent conditions on feeding grounds

A dual foraging strategy (long versus short trips) has been described for some species of seabirds, such as petrels, albatrosses (Procellariiformes) and penguins (Sphenisciphormes). Such a strategy has recently been reported for little auks ( Alle alle ) from the central coast of west Spitsbergen, Svalbard. This has been explained as a response to poor trophic conditions close to the breeding colony, and better conditions further away (150 km). In the present study, we investigated the foraging strategy of little auks in Hornsund, southern Spitsbergen, during two seasons with contrasting oceanographic conditions. During 2004, foraging conditions for little auks were good: cold Arctic waters rich in profitable high-energy food were dominant in their feeding grounds. Conversely, during 2006 there was a great influx of warm Atlantic water in the feeding area, inducing poor foraging conditions. In both seasons we examined the pattern of foraging trip lengths automatically with a video camera (both adults from four nests in each year), and by direct non-stop observation of 20–54 individually marked birds. Our results showed that the dual strategy and the ratio of short and long trips were consistent, regardless of the conditions in the feeding grounds. This suggests that the strategy is inherent and may be crucial for the self-maintenance of adults.     

Intensity–duration–frequency curves exploiting neighbouring extreme precipitation data

ABSTRACT

Records of precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology, intensity–duration–frequency curves are typically estimated from observation records. However, conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do, duration-dependent area reduction factors are used, but precipitation is measured at only a few locations. Due to the high spatial variability of precipitation, it is relatively unlikely that a gauged observation network will capture the extremes that occur during a precipitation event. Therefore, the area reduction approach cannot be regarded as the reduction of an observed maximum. To investigate precipitation extremes, spatial aspects need to be considered using different approaches. Here, we both address the conventional practice of area reduction and consider a within-area chance of increased precipitation, defined as the maximum precipitation intensity observed in a cluster within a selected domain. The results show that (1) the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated in current design practice, and (2) traditional calculations underestimate extremes by as much as 30–50%. We show how they can be revised sensibly.     

Appropriate monitoring techniques using bomb tritium and other geochemical parameters in hydrogeological investigations

ABSTRACT

A critical review of earlier uses of bomb tritium spotlights problems in its applications that may result in erroneous interpretations. The old monitoring technique using boreholes causes mixing of groundwaters of different age zones. In this study, the mixing problem is overcome by using modern monitoring devices of multi-level samplers and bundle piezometers that yield groundwater samples of small volumes at closely-spaced intervals. The old method may be used to determine recharge and discharge areas of aquifers and used where pollution poses no serious threat. Otherwise, the major pumpage of the aquifer distorts and reverses flow directions, causes mixing of different waters and may spread the pollutants. The disadvantages of the modern method include its restricted use in shallow aquifers and porous media.     

OPERATING A LIMESTONE AQUIFER AS A RESERVOIR FOR A WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM

Abstract

An aquifer can be used not only as water source but also as a regulating reservoir linked to a water supply system, planning the operation of such reservoirs calls for a good knowledge of the characteristics and limitations of the aquifer, an estimate of its natural replenishment and outflows, as weil as the determination of a programme for pumping and artificial recharge.

A limestone aquifer of karstic nature, heavily exploited and artificially recharged, has been studied recently with respect to its storage capacity and responses to a planned scheme of operations established for the national water supply systems.

The physical characteristics of this aquifer, its inflows, outflows and dynamic behaviour, were first determined by geological and hydrological investigations. The dynamic model obtained was then verified and improved by use of a resistor-capacitor electric analog constructed for this purpose. Later on, several operational alternatives were tested on the same analog. An optimization analysis was performed on a simplified single cell model representing the aquifer system. The methodology of such integrational operation is discussed in light of the results obtained.     

Snow effects on alpine vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the relationships between snow and vegetation is important for interpretation of the responses of alpine ecosystems to climate changes. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is regarded as an ideal area due to its undisturbed features with low population and relatively high snow cover. We used 500 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets during 2001–2010 to examine the snow–vegetation relationships, specifically, (1) the influence of snow melting date on vegetation green-up date and (2) the effects of snow cover duration on vegetation greenness. The results showed that the alpine vegetation responded strongly to snow phenology (i.e., snow melting date and snow cover duration) over large areas of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Snow melting date and vegetation green-up date were significantly correlated (p < 0.1) in 39.9% of meadow areas (accounting for 26.2% of vegetated areas) and 36.7% of steppe areas (28.1% of vegetated areas). Vegetation growth was influenced by different seasonal snow cover durations (SCDs) in different regions. Generally, the December–February and March–May SCDs played a significantly role in vegetation growth, both positively and negatively, depending on different water source regions. Snow's positive impact on vegetation was larger than the negative impact.