长江经济带新型城镇化协调性的趋同与差异研究

近10年来,城镇化进程中暴露的很多问题可以归结为城镇化的协调性问题,本文以“人地关系”理论为基础,从城乡、产城、城镇化区域和城镇化与资源环境协调发展4个方面来衡量新型城镇化的协调性。并以长江经济带为研究区域,运用空间杜宾面板模型(spatial Durbin panel data model, SDPDM)从经验上考察新型城镇化协调性的俱乐部与条件趋同现象,发现制约长江经济带东、中、西部新型城镇化协调性的因素并不一致：东部城市应进一步加强城镇化同资源环境的协调,促进区域间的协同发展;中部城市应改变大拆大建的城市建设模式,着重发展服务业和增强城市间的合作;西部城市应进一步推进市场开放进程,减少政府对市场的干预和城市建设中的攀比,发展服务业和促进本地经济增长。同时,限制城市人口增长的政策对于新型城镇化协调性不存在显著影响,而放开户籍管制,则会促进人口向城市集聚;无论从促进第三产业发展、产城融合或是城乡协调发展,均会对新型城镇化协调性起到正向作用。     

长江沿岸港口体系的形成过程与机制

长江沿岸港口体系是长江经济带的重要支撑。本文首先对自古以来长江沿岸港口体系的形成发展过程进行了科学实证,发现港口体系经历了“港口的起源与产生—港口体系萌芽—港口体系雏形—港口体系形成—港口体系升级”5个阶段。依据实证分析,对长江沿岸港口体系的形成机制进行了归纳演绎,认为相关港口对水水中转和陆水中转腹地的长期相互竞争是导致港口体系形成的主要机制,其中对水水中转腹地的竞争尤为关键,而港口对中转腹地的竞争随时间推移不断向更深层次更广领域推进。最后从政策层面,对长江沿岸港口体系和长江经济带综合运输体系建设的若干问题进行了讨伦。     

长江经济带农业发展的现状特征与模式转型

本文基于统计数据揭示长江经济带农业发展的现状特征,并结合农业农村发展范式及其演化的回顾,探讨新时期长江经济带农业发展模式转型及其基本策略。研究发现：长江经济带作为我国最重要的农业生产区域之一,近年来农业综合生产能力虽不断提升,但产品产量和产业产值占全国的比重呈下降趋势;农产品国际贸易呈现良好态势,但农产品加工业发展仍较薄弱;农业生产化学品投入强度不断提高,带来的环境问题函待解决;农业发展的新业态不断涌现,工资性收入成为农民收入的主体和动力源。新时期长江经济带的农业发展应充分吸收多功能农业生产和网络化乡村发展范式的有益成分,激发内生动力、整合外部动力,以全国粮食生产核心区、现代农业先行区、农产加工优势区、特色农业产业带为关键目标,实现“七大转变”,着力推进区域农业的多功能转型。深化相关改革、加大财政投入、鼓励创新创业、优化区域布局、加强区域合作、强化村镇建设是实现转型的重要保障。     

丝绸之路经济带资源、环境和经济格局与可持续发展模式（英文）

本文分析了丝绸之路经济带的资源、环境和经济格局,认为该格局有利于丝绸之路经济带沿线国家之间开展多领域、多层次的经济合作;在此基础上,论文提出了丝绸之路经济带主要经济合作模式和可持续发展道路,包括生态文明模式,区域经济一体化模式,交通经济带模式,国际旅游带合作模式;最后,论文总结了丝绸之路经济带实现可持续发展需要解决的关键科学问题,并提出了几个优先行动计划:建立丝绸之路经济带国际科学家联盟和思想库,建立丝绸之路经济带生态环境与可持续发展国际信息共享中心和科学决策支持系统,启动丝绸之路跨国科技交流合作与人才计划,建立丝绸之路经济带可持续发展国际合作委员会,建立应对气候变化和生态环境跨国共建、合作共赢机制。     

新疆于田两次7.3级地震之后南北地震带Benioff应变比分布特征研究

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity, the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center, the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21, 2008 and February 12, 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, M 〉 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas, the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area, which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.     

Chronology and petrogenesis of the Hejiazhuang granitoid pluton and its constraints on the Early Triassic tectonic evolution of the South Qinling Belt

The Hejiazhuang pluton is located in the South Qinling Tectonic Belt(SQTB)in the north side of the Mianxian-Lueyang Suture Zone,and consists dominantly of granodiorites.LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating and Lu-Hf isotopic analyses reveal that these granodiorites of the Hejiazhaung pluton emplaced at~248 Ma,and show a large variation in zirconεHf(t)values from4.8 to 8.8.These granodiorite samples are attributed to high-K to mid-K calc-alkaline series,and characterized by high SiO2(66.6%–70.0%),Al2O3(15.04%–16.10%)and Na2O(3.74%–4.33%)concentrations,with high Mg#(54.2–61.7).All samples have high Sr(627–751 ppm),Cr(55–373 ppm)and Ni(17.2–182 ppm),but low Y(5.42–8.41 ppm)and Yb(0.59–0.74 ppm)concentrations with high Sr/Y ratios(84.90–120.66).They also display highly fractionated REE patterns with(La/Yb)N ratios of 18.9–34.0 and positive Eu anomalies(δEu=1.10–2.22)in the chondrite-normalized REE patterns.In the primitive mantle normalized spidergrams,these samples exhibit enrichment in LILEs but depletion in Nb,Ta,P and Ti.These geochemical features indicate that the granodioritic magma of the Hejiazhuang pluton was derived from the partial melting of hybrid sources comprising the subducted oceanic slab and sediments,and the melts were polluted by the mantle wedge materials during their ascent.The emplacement ages and petrogenesis of the Hejiazhuang pluton prove that the initial subduction of the Mianlue oceanic crust occurred at~248 Ma ago,and the SQTB was still under subduction tectonic setting in the Early Triassic.     

基于VSD模型的区域生态系统脆弱性评价——以广西西江经济带为例(英文)

生态系统脆弱性受到自然与人文因素双重影响。以广西西江经济带为例,采用VSD模型,通过暴露度、敏感性和适应能力分解脆弱性,构建包含自然和人为因素的25指标的评价体系,开展脆弱性评价与分区。结果表明,不脆弱区、一般区、脆弱区、很脆弱区和极脆弱区分别占11.31%、22.63%、27.60%、24.39%和14.07%,东西部地区脆弱性较高,中部地区脆弱性较低;自然因素导致的脆弱区主要分布于东西部山区,人为因素主导的脆弱区分布于中部盆地的城镇及其周边;经济带约53%的建设用地分布于很脆弱区和脆弱区,未来新增建设用地需要重点向不脆弱区和一般区转移。根据分区结果和诱因差异,提出了不同类型区开发与保护的相关建议。     

天山北坡经济带“组团”点轴城镇空间结构研究

以1990-2007年天山北坡城镇GDP、土地、人口、交通数据为资料,根据城镇空间分布“最近邻点指数”理论,空间相互作用和分形理论,分析了天山北坡城镇空间分布特征,构建了绿洲城镇相互作用强度判断模型,提出并论证了“组团”点-轴空间结构模式优越性。研究发现:①天山北坡经济带城镇人口规模和经济规模在空间结构呈现3个城镇高密集区,两个城镇稀疏区特征;②传统绿洲城镇空间结构下,城镇接受中心城市辐射差异很大,不利于城镇整体发展;③以“乌鲁木齐都市圈”为点的“组团”点-轴空间结构模式,有利于中心组团城镇对其他城镇的辐射;④以“５组团”为点的点-轴模式有利于组团之间的相互作用,有利于城镇发展;⑤天山北坡经济带向伊犁河谷延伸有利于中心组团城镇对其他组团城镇的辐射。     

Radial Basis Functional Link Nets Used as a Prospectivity Mapping Tool for Orogenic Gold Deposits Within the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt, Northern Fennoscandian Shield

Among the more popular spatial modeling techniques, artificial neural networks (ANN) are tools that can deal with non-linear relationships, can classify unknown data into categories by using known examples for training, and can deal with uncertainty; characteristics that provide new possibilities for data exploration. Radial basis functional link nets (RBFLN), a form of ANN, are applied to generate a series of prospectivity maps for orogenic gold deposits within the Paleoproterozoic Central Lapland Greenstone Belt, Northern Fennoscandian Shield, Finland, which is considered highly prospective yet clearly under explored. The supervised RBFLN performs better than previously applied statistical weights-of-evidence or conceptual fuzzy logic methods, and equal to logistic regression method, when applied to the same geophysical and geochemical data layers that are proxies for conceptual geological controls. By weighting the training feature vectors in terms of the size of the gold deposits, the classification of the neural network results provides an improved prediction of the distribution of the more important deposits/occurrences. Thus, ANN, more specifically RBFLN, potentially provide a better tool to other methodologies in the development of prospectivity maps for mineral deposits, hence aiding conceptual exploration.     

五台山新太古代绿岩带中高镁安山岩（HMA）的化学特征

采用高镁安山岩（HMA）新的分类方法,描述了五台地区新太古代绿岩带中HMA的化学特征,并与实验的HMA以及自然界中典型的HMA（日本的Chichijima地区HMA和Setouchi地区HMA）进行了对比,显示该区HMA具有与上述HMA类似的化学特征。初步认为五台新太古代HMA产于洋俯冲带的环境,进而表明板块构造理论的适用时间范围可推演到新太古代。