Changes in streamflow regime following vegetation changes from paired catchments

Vegetation changes can significantly affect catchment water balance. It is important to evaluate the effects of vegetation cover change on streamflow as changes in streamflow relate to water security. This study focuses on the use of statistical methods to determine responses in streamflow at seven paired catchments in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa to vegetation change. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt's test were used to identify trends and change points in the annual streamflow records. Statistically significant trends in annual streamflow were detected for most of the treated catchments. It took between 3 and 10 years for a change in vegetation cover to result in significant change in annual streamflow. Presence of the change points in streamflow was associated with changes in the mean, variance, and distribution of annual streamflow. The streamflow in the deforestation catchments increased after the change points, whereas reduction in streamflow was observed in the afforestation catchments. The streamflow response is mainly affected by the climate and underlying vegetation change. Daily flow duration curves (FDCs) for the whole period and pre‐change and post‐change point periods also were analysed to investigate the changes in flow regime. Three types of vegetation change effects on the flow regime have been identified. The relative reductions in most percentile flows are constant in the afforestation catchments. The comparison of trend, change point, and FDC in the annual streamflow from the paired experiments reflects the important role of the vegetation change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The cityscapes of European capital cities

Capital cities are politico-administrative centers. They are command centers, they symbolize authority and also the unit that is governed. Primarily they are capitals of states, but other governance systems may also have capitals. In the European context there are now regional capital cities and at least the concept of a European capital. Particularly on account of their symbolic function but also for the uses made of its appearance in political life, the cityscape of capital cities is an interesting topic for research. There are different types of capital cities in Europe that give rise to different cityscapes. Existing urban networks and types of political regime are important in this respect. Although cityscapes are pretty stable, they are differently perceived over time and uses made of them also change. A research agenda for this intersection of historical, cultural and political geography should concentrate on the evolution of these cityscapes, their perception and the uses made of them in the acting out of politics.     

辽东湾红沿河附近海域2017—2018年冬季气温-水温-冰情关系研究

辽东湾是我国冰情最严重海域,每年冬季都会受到海冰的显著影响,冰情预测评估可为辽东湾涉海活动提供防冰抗冰的技术依据。建立气温-水温-冰情的相关性,结合便于获取的现场高精度连续气象数据和高精度冰情预测模型,可实现局地小尺度的冰情快速预测评估。基于2017—2018年冬季辽东湾东岸红沿河附近海域实测气象-水温-冰情同步观测数据,结合辽东湾大尺度整体冰情（浮冰面积）,推演局地气温、水温与不同尺度冰情评价参数（浮冰范围与冰厚）的相关关系,提出基于不同气温区间的气温变化规律的冰底热通量选取方法,进而建立适用于辽东湾的气温-水温-冰情评估方法。相关性分析结果显示：观测点气温与水温存在明显相关性;浮冰范围与气象数据存在明显相关性,临界温度为 -5 ℃的累计负气温能很好拟合本年度盛冰期浮冰范围。基于HIGHTSI进行数值模拟后发现：水温与块体积法计算冰底热通量时,冰水间的热传递系数取2.2×10^-5是可行的;水温对冰情的影响表现在海冰冰厚最大值与冰期长短。为弥补辽东湾其他海域因缺少实测海水温度观测数据欠缺、冰底热通量选取不准选取导致的冰情模拟预测评估困难的问题,本文依据水温与气温的相关性,将水温随气温变化划分为结冰区（气温小于-10 ℃时水温维持冰点附近）、过渡区（气温为-10~-5 ℃时水温处于-1.4~-0.4 ℃）、融冰区（气温高于-5 ℃时水温随气温的增大逐渐增大）,进而提出适用于辽东湾所有海域的冰底热通量计算方法和冰情评估方法。     

大安市地下水动态变化趋势及驱动因素研究

为研究大安市地下水位的变化特征及其主要控制因素,根据大安市气候因素、引水灌溉水量、地下水开采和地下水埋深等数据资料,分析了环境因素的变化规律及趋势,基于suffer软件利用克里格方法对地下水埋深进行插值,分析其时空演变规律及驱动因素。结果表明,降水量呈波动增加的趋势,平均年降水量增量为0.249mm/a;蒸发量呈波动下降的趋势,平均年蒸发量增量为-2.063mm/a;引水灌溉水量呈增加趋势,平均年灌溉水量增量为0.212×108m/a。潜水埋深呈小幅度减小趋势,年均倾斜率为-0.023m/a,承压水埋深呈波动上升趋势,年均倾斜率为0.146m/a。承压水动态变化的驱动因子由大到小依次为人工开采(主要是农业开采与生活用水)、引水灌溉、降水、蒸发,农业开采是最主要的影响因子。研究结果可为制定完善的水资源调控方案提供理论依据。     

川北山丘区地下水补给特征与定量研究

针对川北山丘区地下水资源和污染防护研究中地下水补给难以定量等问题,以川北典型山丘区平溪河北岸的山丘区子流域为研究对象,布设监测孔并对其地下水的水位和水温开展动态监测,并基于大气压监测数据校正地下水监测水位,分析了山丘区地下水水位及水温的年内动态变化特征;采用渗水试验和分段双栓塞水文地质试验获取含水层空间渗透系数;基于达西断面法定量计算了研究区内观测断面的地下水径流补给量,并建立了月降雨量与降水入渗系数的函数关系,结果显示:研究区多年平均大气降水入渗补给量为16.61mm,多年平均降水入渗系数为0.0182;月降雨量与降水入渗系数呈幂函数关系;此成果可为研究区地下水资源、地下水防污性能评价及地下水数值模拟等研究提供重要依据。     

Sectoral targets for developing countries: combining ‘common but differentiated re-sponsibilities’ with ‘meaningful participation’

Although a global cap-and-trade system is seen by many researchers as the most cost-efficient solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the governments of developing countries refuse to enter into such a system in the short term. Many scholars and stakeholders, including the European Commission, have thus proposed various types of commitments for developing countries that appear less stringent, such as sectoral approaches. A macroeconomic assessment of such a sectoral approach is provided for developing countries. Two policy scenarios in particular are assessed, in which developed countries continue with Kyoto-type absolute commitments, while developing countries adopt an emissions trading system limited to electricity generation and linked to developed countries' cap-and-trade systems. In the first scenario, CO₂ allowances are auctioned by the government, which distributes its revenues as a lump sum to households. In a second scenario, the auction revenues are used to reduce taxes on, or to give subsidies to, electricity generation. The quantitative analysis, conducted with a hybrid general equilibrium model, shows that such options provide almost as much emissions reduction as a global cap-and-trade system. Moreover, in the second sectoral scenario, GDP losses in developing countries are much lower than with a global cap-and-trade system, as is also the effect on the electricity price.     

Comparative policy analysis: Neoliberalising New Zealand

Comparative policy analysis involves systematically examining the long‐term formation of public policies across a number of societies. It focuses particularly on the sequence of policy regimes: liberalism – Keynesianism/social democracy – neoliberalism. Since 1980, neoliberalism has been widely adopted as the guiding ideological structure for economic policy making. But neoliberalism encounters resistances that vary with national contexts. New Zealand is a particularly interesting case because of its reputation as a social democratic, welfare state that went neoliberal with a vengeance (Rogernomics).