遗迹化石与潮控滨线海泛面的识别及准层序相组合──以塔里木盆地下志留统塔塔埃尔塔格组为例

塔里木盆地下志留统塔塔埃尔塔格组主要由潮坪沉积组成。根据遗迹化石与沉积特征,固底控制的遗迹化石Ｇｙｒｏｌｉｔｈｅｓ常常与沉积性不连续面（海泛面）有关,潮控滨线中的准层序由三类岩相组成,其中含砾砂岩相（相Ａ）为潮道沉积,未见遗迹化石;含交错层理细砂岩相（相Ｂ）为砂坪沉积,仅见少量的遗迹化石Ｓｋｏｌｉｔｈｏｓ;强生物扰动粉砂岩、泥岩相（相Ｃ）为砂、泥混合坪沉积,发育有丰富的遗迹化石,代表Ｓｋｏｌｉｔｈｏｓ－Ｃｒｕｚｉａｎａ混合遗迹相。     

江西省旱涝动态监测指标的设计

从地面水份平衡原理出发,在分析地面降水承载力和地面水份含量变化特征的基础上,讨论了湿润地区旱涝灾害的形成机制。运用WMO推荐的异常度指标和Bhalme－Mooley湿润度指标的基本原理,设计了一个洪涝灾害的动态监测指标。通过对地面水份含量变化特征方程的简化处理,设计了一个干旱动态监测指标。在实际业务工作中,这一旱涝动态监测指标能较好地反映旱涝灾害的发生、发展和解除过程。     

Simulation of the spatio‐temporal extent of groundwater flooding using statistical methods of hydrograph classification and lumped parameter models

This article presents the development of a relatively low cost and rapidly applicable methodology to simulate the spatio‐temporal occurrence of groundwater flooding in chalk catchments. In winter 2000/2001 extreme rainfall resulted in anomalously high groundwater levels and groundwater flooding in many chalk catchments of northern Europe and the southern United Kingdom. Groundwater flooding was extensive and prolonged, occurring in areas where it had not been recently observed and, in places, lasting for 6 months. In many of these catchments, the prediction of groundwater flooding is hindered by the lack of an appropriate tool, such as a distributed groundwater model, or the inability of models to simulate extremes adequately. A set of groundwater hydrographs is simulated using a simple lumped parameter groundwater model. The number of models required is minimized through the classification and grouping of groundwater level time‐series using principal component analysis and cluster analysis. One representative hydrograph is modelled then transposed to other observed hydrographs in the same group by the process of quantile mapping. Time‐variant groundwater level surfaces, generated using the discrete set of modelled hydrographs and river elevation data, are overlain on a digital terrain model to predict the spatial extent of groundwater flooding. The methodology is applied to the Pang and Lambourn catchments in southern England for which monthly groundwater level time‐series exist for 52 observation boreholes covering the period 1975–2004. The results are validated against observed groundwater flood extent data obtained from aerial surveys and field mapping. The method is shown to simulate the spatial and temporal occurrence of flooding during the 2000/2001 flood event accurately. British Geological Survey © NERC 2011. Hydrological Processes © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate variability,snow, and physiographic controls on storm hydrographs in small forested basins,western Cascades,Oregon

Large floods are often attributed to the melting of snow during a rain event. This study tested how climate variability, snowpack presence, and basin physiography were related to storm hydrograph shape in three small (<1 km²) basins with old‐growth forest in western Oregon. Relationships between hydrograph characteristics and precipitation were tested for approximately 800 storms over a nearly 30‐year period. Analyses controlled for (1) snowpack presence/absence, (2) antecedent soil moisture, and (3) hillslope length and gradient. For small storms (<150 mm precipitation), controlling for precipitation, the presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil increased the threshold of precipitation before hydrograph rise, extended the start lag, centroid lag, and duration of storm hydrographs, and increased the peak discharge. The presence of a snowpack on near‐saturated soil sped up and steepened storm hydrographs in a basin with short steep slopes, but delayed storm hydrographs in basins with longer or more gentle slopes. Hydrographs of the largest events, which were extreme regional rain and rain‐on‐snow floods, were not sensitive to landform characteristics or snowpack presence/absence. Although the presence of a snowpack did not increase peak discharge in small, forested basins during large storms, it had contrasting effects on storm timing in small basins, potentially synchronizing small basin contributions to the larger basin hydrograph during large rain‐on‐snow events. By altering the relative timing of hydrographs, snowpack melting could produce extreme floods from precipitation events whose size is not extreme. Further work is needed to examine effects of canopy openings, snowpack, and climate warming on extreme rain‐on‐snow floods at the large basin scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing possible changes in flood frequency due to climate change in mid‐sized watersheds in New York State,USA

The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deterministic and ensemble storm surge prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days

Regional deterministic and ensemble surge prediction systems (RDSPS and RESPS respectively) are used to forecast sea levels off the east of Canada and northeast US. The surge models for the RDSPS and RESPS have grid spacings of 1/30° and 1/12° respectively. The models are driven by surface air pressure and 10 m winds generated by operational global deterministic and ensemble prediction systems that are run operationally by the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Surge forecasts are evaluated for the period 1 March, 2013 to 31 March 2014. Based on traditional statistics (e.g., standard deviation of the difference between observations and predictions) both systems are shown to have skill in forecasting surges six days into the future. It is shown however that skill exists beyond six days if allowance is made for errors in the timing of large surges. The usefulness of the RESPS is demonstrated for two positive surges (important for coastal flooding and erosion) and a negative surge (important for safe navigation in shallow water). It is shown that the RESPS can identify events not forecast by the RDSPS, and can also add useful additional information on the timing of the surge, an important consideration in tidally dominated waters. Several new types of display are used to illustrate the sort of information that can be generated by the RESPS to support the issuers of warnings of unusually high and low total water levels.     

基于脉冲星计时的航天器自主定位误差估计方法

目前很多学者希望从"X射线脉冲星自主导航"的导航算法研究入手,利用数据分析或仿真进行验证.其中关于航天器自主定位的误差估计方法、误差量级和各种影响因素的讨论,并没有在给定详细初始条件的基础上系统性地说明问题.为了分析上述问题,需从天体测量学的角度出发,对自主定位的各种误差源及其影响因素进行探讨和误差量级的估计.首先,由...     

系外行星系统掩星周期变化研究进展

在掩星法发现的系外行星系统中,如果存在其他未知的伴星绕同一颗恒星运动,掩星行星由于受到伴星引力的影响,运动轨道将发生变化,轨道周期不再是常数,而是变化的。利用这种变化探测掩星系统中的其他行星,已成为一种新的方法。主要介绍了未知行星与掩星行星之间的引力作用引起的掩星周期变化效应,以及掩星周期变化法探测系外行星的理论和研究进展状况,最后简要讨论了几种影响掩星周期变化的其他因素:共轨行星、卫星、潮汐效应、相对论效应及恒星的引力四极矩等。     

‘We are at the mercy of the floods!’ : Extreme weather events,disrupted mobilities,and everyday navigation in urban Ghana

This paper examines how extreme weather events affect the mobility of low-income urban residents in Ghana. Bringing together scholarship on extreme weather and mobilities, it explores the differential impact of flooding on their everyday lives as they navigate the cities of Accra and Tamale. A range of qualitative methods were drawn on, including semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, and follow-along-participant observations in selected communities of both cities. Three key themes emerged: disrupted road and transport infrastructure, everyday mobility challenges, and coping/adaptive strategies. In flooding conditions, residents experienced difficulties leaving/returning home, engaging in income-generating activities, and accessing transport services and other key urban infrastructure. Conceptually, the paper reveals how disruption to urban residents’ daily movements and activities (re)produces new forms of mobilities and immobilities, which have three relational elements: postponed, improvised and assisted. Throughout the analysis, we show how these mobilities/immobilities vary by age and gender: all urban residents, (though women in particular), experience postponed mobility; young people especially engage in improvised mobility; and children and the elderly are in greatest need of assisted mobility. The paper thus contributes to scholarship on extreme weather events and mobility by providing a more spatially nuanced understanding of the multi-faceted domains in which flooding, socio-economic conditions and adaptive strategies intersect to influence urban mobility in resource poor settings.     

基于城市内涝仿真模型的天津风暴潮灾害评估

基于城市内涝仿真模型,根据天津沿海地区的地形、地貌特征以及排水系统等对城市内涝仿真模型进行改进,在沿海边界和河口设置时变水位,使得模型拓展到既能模拟暴雨产生的内涝,也能模拟由于风暴潮侵袭造成的淹没情景。该模型对天津沿海地区历史上典型风暴潮个例以及10年、20年、50年、100年一遇重现期风暴潮产生的积水范围和积水深度进行了模拟,并对2012年8月3日台风达维 (1210) 造成的天津沿海风暴潮进行了业务试应用。将历史风暴潮个例模拟结果以及2012年8月3日的评估结果与实际灾情进行对比,结果显示模型具有较好的模拟能力,可应用于风暴潮灾害的评估和预估业务中,为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。