基于洪峰模数的山洪灾害雨量预警指标研究

山洪灾害预警是防御山洪的重要非工程措施,雨量预警指标是山洪灾害预警的关键。目前的雨量预警指标计算方法对水文气象资料条件以及模型建模率定都有很高的要求,并不适用于基层防汛人员。因此,本文基于全国山洪灾害调查评价成果数据,提出了一种运用洪峰模数计算雨量预警指标的简便、易用的方法。该方法以小流域洪水计算推理公式为基础,将公式中流量与流域面积的比值用洪峰模数表示,得到基于洪峰模数的临界雨量估算公式,并考虑流域土壤含水量等因素,分析临界雨量变化阈值,最终得到雨量预警指标。本文以云南省绥江县双河小流域为例,计算结果显示不同时段（1 h、3 h、6 h）净雨量和预警时段呈线性关系。降雨损失计算中洼地蓄水和植被截留在不同时段相同,土壤下渗在不同的时段不相同。在此基础上,计算不同土壤含水量条件下,不同时段的雨量预警指标。最后,对临界流量、降雨损失和预警指标进行了合理性分析,结果显示预警指标和调查评价结果及实测降雨都比较接近,计算的预警指标合理。本研究为基层山洪灾害预警提供了一种快速、便捷的预警指标计算方法,为预警指标计算提供技术支持。     

高精度磁测在IOCG型铁矿勘查中的应用——以智利英格瓦塞铁矿为例

IOCG型（铁氧化物铜金型）矿床富含铁氧化物,且常缺失硫化物,高精度磁测是寻找IOCG矿床重要的有效手段之一。英格瓦塞铁矿位于智利中北部IOCG型矿床成矿带,前期地质工作程度较低。在智利英格瓦塞铁矿矿区地质特征调查基础上,重点针对中部矿区的7个磁异常区,利用RGIS对其高精度磁测数据进行面积上延、面积下延、剖面下延及2.5D反演拟合处理,结果表明,本区引起磁异常的磁性地质体整体呈NE向延伸、倾向NW、倾角较陡。除Ⅰ号和Ⅴ号磁异常规模较小外,其他几个磁异常中心找矿前景较大,有规模的磁异常区大多埋深在50~120 m之间,为下一步地质找矿钻探验证提供了有效的基础。同时,该勘查方法可为中国IOCG型铁矿找矿工作提供参考依据。     

The Early Permian Woniusi Flood Basalts from the Baoshan Terrane, SW China: Petrogenesis and Geodynamic Implications

The Woniusi flood basalts from the Baoshan terrane, SW China, represent a significant eruption of volcanic rocks which were linked to the Late Paleozoic rifting of the Cimmeria from the northern margin of East Gondwana. However, the precise mechanism for the formation and propagation of the rifting is still in debate. Here we report ⁴⁰ Ar/³⁹ Ar dating, whole-rock geochemistry, and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes for the Woniusi basalts from the Baoshan terrane of SW China, with the aim o...     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geochemistry of Paraná-Etendeka basalts from Misiones,Argentina: Some new insights into the petrogenesis of high-Ti continental flood basalts

The Early Cretaceous (∼135–131 Ma) Paraná-Etendeka continental flood basalts, preserved in bulk in the Paraná basin of southern Brazil and vicinity, have been divided into low-Ti and high-Ti types that govern the southern and northern halves of the basin, respectively. We have examined a new sample set from the southern margin of the northern high-Ti segment of Paraná basalts in Misiones, northeastern Argentina. These basalts are strongly to moderately enriched in TiO₂ (2–4 wt.%), have relatively high Ti/Y (300–500), low MgO (3.5–6.5 wt.%), and high Fe (FeO(tot) 12–14 wt.%) and belong to the Pitanga and Paranapanema magma types of Peate et al. (1992). Nd and Sr isotope compositions are quite unvarying with ε_Nd (at 133 Ma) values of −4.6 to −3.6 and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0.7054–0.7059 and show no variation with fractionation. Compared to high-Ti lavas in the central and northern parts of the Paraná high-Ti basalt segment, the lavas from Misiones are similar to those in the northeastern magin of the basin but less radiogenic in initial Nd isotope composition than those in the central part. This variation probably reflects mixed EM1-EM2 source components in the sublithospheric mantle. A polybaric melt model of a sublithospheric mantle source at the garnet lherzolite-spinel lherzolite transition is compatible with the observed Ti budget of the Pitanga and Paranapanema lavas, regardless of the Nd isotope composition of their purported source.     

金川铜镍矿床中新生代抬升冷却过程：来自裂变径迹的证据

本文基于热年代学理论,利用锆石和磷灰石裂变径迹测年数据及对磷灰石热史的模拟,分析探讨金川铜镍矿床在中新生代的抬升冷却过程,认为金川超基性岩体自中生代以来一直处于持续的冷却抬升阶段,且在中侏罗世和晚白垩世早期经历了两期快速的抬升冷却事件,推断此事件与青藏高原后期活动时间相对应,证明金川岩体受到该事件的远程效应波及,致使该矿床遭受了一定的改造。     

矿床成矿系列——五论矿床的成矿系列问题

矿床的成矿系列(简称成矿系列)是矿床学领域的一个理论性概念,由五级序次组成。矿床成矿系列是成矿系列的第二序次,是成矿系列的核心部分。矿床成矿系列的划分,以岩浆、沉积、变质、表生和流体(非岩浆-非变质成因流体)5种成矿作用为基本原则,以成矿地质环境为基础,结合成矿的时段与形成的矿床组合进行划分。本文对矿床成矿系列时空范围、时空组成结构、矿化强度与演化、成矿区带内不同矿床成矿系列之间的演化、叠加和复合作用及对指导找矿的意义进行了论述。     

Stratigraphic evolution of Eocene clinoforms from northern Santos Basin,offshore Brazil: Evaluating controlling factors on shelf-margin growth and deep-water sedimentation

In order to assess the controlling factors on the evolution of a shelf margin and the timing of sediment transfer to deep waters, a seismic stratigraphic investigation was carried out in the Eocene interval of northern Santos Basin, offshore Brazil. The studied succession configures a complex of prograding slope clinoforms formed in a passive margin and encompasses five seismic facies and their respective depositional settings: shelf-margin deltas/shorefaces, oblique slope clinoforms, sigmoidal slope clinoforms, continental to shelfal deposits and mass-transport deposits. These are stratigraphically arranged as seven depositional sequences recording a total shelf-edge progradation of about 35 km and a progradation rate of 1,75 km/My. Two main types of sequences can be recognized, the first one (type A) being dominated by oblique slope clinoforms and shelf-margin deltas/shorefaces in which shelf-edge trajectories were essentially flat to descending and extensive sandy turbidites were deposited on the foreset to bottomset zones. Sequences of this type are dominated by forced-regressive units deposited during extensive periods of relative sea-level fall. Type B comprises an upper part represented by aggradational shelfal deposits and a lower part composed of mass-transport deposits and high-relief sigmoidal clinoforms with descending shelf-edge trajectory. Steep slump scars deeply cut the shelfal strata and constitutes the boundary between the two intervals observed in type B sequences. Sandy turbidites occur at the same frequency in both forced- and normal-regressive units but are more voluminous within forced-regressive clinoforms associated with shelf-margin deltas/shorefaces. Major slope failures and mass-transport deposits, by the other hand, occurred exclusively in type B sequences during the onset of sea-level fall and their volume are directly related to the thickness of the shelfal sediments formed during the pre-failure normal regressions.     

扬子地台东南缘下寒武统清虚洞组风暴沉积特征及其重要意义

在扬子地台东南缘,下寒武统龙王庙阶清虚洞组主要由浅水碳酸盐岩组成。在野外露头剖面实测和室内镜下薄片观察的基础上,大量风暴沉积被发现于不同剖面清虚洞组的不同层位中,同时大量风暴诱发形成的沉积构造被识别出来,包括侵蚀基底、粗粒滞留沉积、粒序层理、平行层理、丘状交错层理(少见并且值得怀疑)以及沙纹层理,组成了多种类型的风暴沉积序列。结合更靠扬子东南缘的深水剖面中重力流沉积的缺乏,可以推断早寒武世龙王庙期扬子地台的沉积模式为碳酸盐缓坡。结合风暴的形成机制以及清虚洞组风暴沉积的发育特征(尤其是粗粒滞留砾屑的定向排列和典型丘状交错层理的缺乏),可以推断研究区风暴沉积形成于强烈的冬季风暴作用,并且早寒武世龙王庙期华南的古地理位置应当位于中纬度地区,这一结论对一些著名的全球古地理重建方案提出了质疑。同时中纬度地区大规模发育蒸发岩和碳酸盐岩还佐证了寒武纪地球处于热室(Hothouse)时期。     

酉阳河流域典型年汛期的基流分割研究

基流分割是水文学研究中的重难点问题之一,目前基流分割也存在许多方法.基于酉阳河典型年汛期实测日平均流量资料,分别采用Chapman-Maxwell改进方程数字滤波法一次滤波(参数N=1)以及二次滤波(参数N=2)、BFI(f)法、HYSEP固定步长法、HYSEP滑动步长法、HYSEP局部最小值法进行基流分割并对其结果进...