1991年夏季大西洋东部海温异常对江淮洪涝的影响

利用１９９１年５－６月大西洋东部海温距平分布和俄立冈州立大学三层全球气候模式，研究了大西洋东部海温异常对１９９１年６月江淮洪涝灾害的影响，并讨论了影响我国江淮降水的机制。结果表明，大西洋东部中纬度海温正距平和低纬海温负距平是造成江淮洪涝的重要因素之一。     

典型旱涝年环流的旬平均和旬距平特征

利用ＥＣＭＷＦ高度场资料，详细分析了１９８５年和１９９１年５月主要季风环流系统的旬平均和旬距平特征。结果表明，５月名旬，旱涝年的主要季风系统的位置和强度有明显差异。并指出夏季降水的异常，不仅与５月各旬北半球的南亚高压，极涡，西太平洋副高等系统的活动异常有关，而且与南半球的澳大利亚冷高，马斯克林高压的强弱有关，甚至与南半球中高纬环流的经向度大小也有联系。     

论沿海低地洪涝灾害测度问题

选取频遭洪涝灾害威胁与危害的沿海平原低地，试图建立描述洪涝强度的等级测度模式，并分析其减灾意义。     

用正月十五月影长度预测乌盟地区汛期降水的机理分析

介绍了用正月十五月影长度作乌盟地区汛期降水预报的方法。分析指出，月影长度实际上反映正月十五上中天时刻的月赤纬的大小，月影短月赤 纬大，而月影长则月赤纬小。     

Seasonal Transition of Summer Rainy Season over Indochina and Adjacent Monsoon Region

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中国热带气旋暴雨洪水的分布和水文特性

描述了由热带气旋形成和影响的暴雨及其洪水的地域分布,给出了区划;讨论了热带气旋暴雨洪水的水文特性,并与非热带气旋暴雨洪水作了比较。     

从研究汛期描述论水文系统模糊集分析的方法论

论述了水文系统模糊集分析的哲学基础,提出了水文成因、概率统计、模糊集分析相结合的确定汛期隶属函数的综合性方法。从汛期描述的研究,阐述了水文系统模糊集分析的基本方法论。     

河道洪水预报的可靠性研究

把河道洪水预报方案与可靠性分析方法结合起来,对预报可靠性作了分析。分析了预报中的不确定性来源以及在率定模型中对它们的处理,应用可靠性分析方法评价了各种不确定性对预报结果的影响,估算了超过目标洪峰流量的概率,对预报结果作了定量的可靠性分析。     

Hydrological impacts of flow regulation associated with the Upper Nepean water supply scheme,NSW

The upper Nepean River has been progressively regulated for water supply to Sydney and Wollongong since 1886 by the Upper Nepean Water Supply Scheme which consists of four large dams, two small dams and two diversion weirs. Secular rainfall changes produced periods of high rainfall and large floods (flood‐dominated regimes) between 1857 and 1900 and 1947 and the present, and an intervening period (1901–46) of low rainfall and small floods (drought‐dominated regime). Upstream impoundment and flow regulation significantly reduced flood magnitudes for most return periods during both types of flood regimes. The probability distribution of mean daily flows was also changed significantly by flow regulation such that during the drought‐dominated regime, the high and low frequency flows were reduced substantially but the moderate frequency flows were increased due to dam releases; the change from a regulated drought‐dominated regime to a regulated flood‐ dominated regime resulted in a substantial increase in discharge for most durations; and increased water diversions to Wollongong during the current flood‐dominated regime produced a marked downward shift in the whole flow duration curve. Nepean Dam reduced downstream suspended sediment yields by two orders of magnitude because it traps in excess of 99 per cent of the inflowing suspended sediment load. Streamflow releases are urgently required from the two diversion weirs to improve downstream water quality and to ensure the viability of the resident ‘potentially threatened’ eastern Macquarie perch (Macquaria nov. sp.).     

Unbiased estimation of flood risk with the GEV distribution

Conventional flood frequency analysis is concerned with providing an unbiased estimate of the magnitude of the design flow exceeded with the probabilityp, but sampling uncertainties imply that such estimates will, on average, be exceeded more frequently. An alternative approach is therefore, to derive an estimator which gives an unbiased estimate of flow risk: the difference between the two magnitudes reflects uncertainties in parameter estimation. An empirical procedure has been developed to estimate the mean true exceedance probabilities of conventional estimates made using a GEV distribution fitted by probability weighted moments, and adjustment factors have been determined to enable the estimation of flood magnitudes exceeded with, on average, the desired probability.