Impact of missing flow on active inundation areas and transformation of parafluvial wetlands in Punarbhaba–Tangon river basin of Indo-Bangladesh

Punarbhaba river of Indo-Bangladesh has experienced hydro-ecological alteration after installation of Komardanga dam in 1992 and consequently wetland and inundation areas have undergone into transformation. The present work intends to explore the impact of flow attenuation on contemporary and upcoming flood extent and flood plain wetlands. In post-dam condition, average and maximum flows are attenuated by 36 and 41%, respectively, and as a result the active flood prone area is squeezed considerably by 39.72%. Average flood water depth is also reduced by 37.87% (4.45metre) after flow modification. Due to shrinkages of flood prone areas, wetland area is also reduced from 215.70 to 90.40 km² and larger part of the present wetland area is under stress and critical state. Predicted flood prone areas in next 25 years will be 328.91 km² and consequently 65.63 km² wetland areas may further be under hydro-ecological threats. Release of ecological flow is essential to restore and preserve the wetland.     

基于Sentinel-1B SAR数据的洪水提取和监测

洪涝灾害是我国最严重的气象灾害之一,及时准确的洪灾监测是防灾减灾的重要前期工作和基础。本文利用sentinel-1B雷达数据,以黑瞎子岛为研究区,联合使用OSTU阈值分割法和随机森林面向对象分类法针对像素统计单波形、双波形、多波形SAR影像提取洪水要素,实现对洪灾淹没面积的时序监测,为灾情监测提供数据和技术支撑。     

IOD Modoki事件对华南后汛期降水异常的影响及可能机理

利用1979—2019年CN05.1中国区域高分辨率降水格点数据、英国Hadley中心观测海温数据、ERA5逐月大气再分析资料及大气环流模式,研究了华南后汛期期间(7—9月)IOD Modoki事件与华南后汛期降水异常的关系及可能机理。观测资料结果表明,华南后汛期降水异常与热带印度洋中部(东和西部)海温异常呈显著正(负)相关关系,表现为印度洋IOD Modoki或印度洋三极子事件的空间分布型。滤除ENSO信号影响后,华南后汛期降水异常仍和IOD Modoki存在较为密切的联系。IOD Modoki正异常对华南后汛期降水异常的影响有以下途径,一方面,异常水汽从热带印度洋东部向西输送至热带中印度洋后,在北半球受科氏力作用向东输送至华南地区,为华南地区提供了充足的水汽条件,并且对华南地区降水正异常的主要水汽辐合贡献为平均水汽的水平扰动散度项和扰动引起的平均水汽垂直平流项。另一方面,热带东南印度洋海温负异常,通过Mastuno-Gill响应引起对流层低层自热带东南印度洋至热带中印度洋有东南风异常,增强了70°E附近的越赤道气流,在北半球向东输送至西北太平洋,这引起了华南地区对流层低层气旋式环流异常。另外,热带东印度洋对流层低(高)层异常辐散(辐合),华南地区低(高)层异常辐合(辐散)增强了东亚地区的局地Hadley环流,有利于华南地区降水的产生。再者,IOD Modoki引起南亚季风区受异常下沉运动控制,并通过季风-荒漠机制引起副热带北大西洋东部、北非荒漠区及地中海西部周围正涡度异常,激发了沿急流向下游传播的准静止Rossby波,增强了日本海高压异常和华南及邻近地区对流层低层气旋式环流异常。上述原因均有利于华南地区降水的产生,反之亦然。上述结果在数值模式中亦得到了验证。     

长江-淮河流域短时暴雨洪涝灾害危险性预警评估及验证

洪涝灾害危险性预警分析是防灾减灾的重要基础,在灾害发生前进行预警,可以有效减轻灾害带来的影响。本文以2020年6—8月长江-淮河流域洪涝灾害为研究案例,首次利用前3天累计降水量(前期状态),当前时次土壤湿度(当前状态)和预测日降水量(未来状态)作为致灾因子,基于改进的层次分析法建立危险性预警分析模型。通过县域灾情信息验证表明,评估正确率达74.46%,遗漏率仅5.59%,评估结果与实际灾情吻合性好;同时对预警准确性和时相一致性进行评价,最大值(县内最高指数)的预警率达到81.6%;“特大型”暴雨洪涝灾害中的预警达到77.3%以上,且灾害在前3~5天危险性指数普遍提升,存在有效预警。本文方法对于长江—淮河流域短时暴雨洪涝灾害危险性预警有较好的准确性和可靠性,可提供防灾减灾决策依据。     

河道洪水演进数值模拟及其在GIS平台上的可视化

针对公共安全应急平台中灾害预测预警和应急处置的快速反应需求,建立了基于圣维南方程的河道洪水演进的水动力学模型。采用库朗格式的特征线方法对基本方程进行数值求解,得出水位和流量沿河道的时空变化关系,在此基础上进一步研究了基于GIS的洪水演进可视化方法。最后,通过天然河道模拟实例验证了所建模型的可靠性和实用性。     

西辽河流域归一化植被指数与气象因子相关性分析

为了解西辽河流域归一化植被指数(NDVI)的分布规律、变化趋势及对气候变化的响应,利用2000—2018年西辽河流域11个气象站逐日气象资料和MODIS归一化植被指数数据集,通过线性回归和相关分析,探讨了生长季各月NDVI与气象因子的时滞性,以及气象站周围10 km缓冲区内不同植被类型NDVI与气象因子的相关性.结果表...     

多维联合概率理论对三峡工程设计洪水的计算

首次将多维联合概率理论应用到三峡大坝设计洪水的风险分析,并用随机模拟方法(ISPUD)对四维联合概率分布进行了求解,得出在长江上游干流及主要支流来水量出现的不同组合和最不利组合情况下,相应三峡大坝不同联合重现期的设计洪水。可用于三峡工程的风险分析及防洪调度。     

长江河口涨、落潮槽内的沙波地貌和输移特征

涨、落潮槽是河口区的重要地貌单元,槽内由于不同的优势流作用而表现出不同的泥沙运移特征。沙波是底沙输移的表现,因此研究槽内的沙波特征对于涨、落潮槽的水动力和沉积地貌研究有重要的意义。本文依据现场声纳观测、测深仪测深、表层取样和现场水动力观测等方法获得河槽床面沙波和水动力资料,对沙波的几何形态、波高和全潮周期的迁移距离进行...     

长江口涨、落潮槽底沙输移趋势探讨

选择长江口南港南小泓和南港主槽作为典型涨、落潮槽为研究对象，以2001年9月所采底沙的颗粒分析资料为根据，并结合实测水文、泥沙资料进行水动力分析，运用Gao-Collins粒径趋势分析模型分析了底沙输移趋势，结果表明：南小泓的底沙主要是来自口门附近，由于涨潮流强于落潮流而使底沙向上游输移，即SE—NW方向，而南港主槽的底沙主要来自上游，由于落潮流强于涨潮流而使泥沙向下游输移，即NW—SE方向。     

Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China

Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.