1991年5-7月江淮洪涝:水汽和冷空气的作用比较

对1991年5-7月江淮流域持续性暴雨的环流异常进行分析,比较造成此次洪涝的水汽输送和冷空气活动重要性。结果表明：（1）东亚大槽维持在中国东北上空发展明显,同时鄂霍次克海上空没有建立强大阻高,这种形势有利于冷空气持续向南侵袭,盛行经向环流。此外,低纬度地区,西太平洋副热带高压主体位置于常年同期相比,明显偏西、偏强,有利于暖湿气流沿副热带高压北上到达江淮流域,与北方冷空气辐合形成强降水。（2）通过定义I_T和I_q分别表征温度与水汽对降水的贡献,发现此次江淮流域地区强降水是由对流层低层水汽异常增多和气温异常偏低共同造成的,作用基本相当。     

运用社交网络分析淹水空间信息之关联性

随着社交网络的普遍发展,大量的讯息透过智能手机发布在个人的微博或其他社交网站。台湾地区的社交网站以脸书(Facebook)的使用量最大,平均每天有近千万笔的讯息量,大多数的讯息多以食衣住行或个人讯息为主,但从本研究所撷取自2010年至2015年的数据中显示,公众在社交网站所分享的信息中具有降雨、淹水或相关灾情的讯息,而这些讯息具有极高比例的正确性。由于社交网站无法提供私人讯息,故本研究将从社交信息中,以地点为单位撷取大量的数据信息再辅以语意关键词萃取出有关可作为淹水预判的讯息数据。为检核资料的可性度,本研究透过历史台风数据FLO-2D仿真重建淹水之空间信息进行检核。从研究比对分析中发现,经萃取后的公众信息其与灾害的关联性及正确性相当显着,故透过社交网站中大量的非结构讯息,透过语意及空间的转换,可萃取转化为防灾信息,对广域的都市治理而言,此一讯息将可作为预判区域淹水或防救灾情报之有效参考。     

Geochemistry of Paraná-Etendeka basalts from Misiones,Argentina: Some new insights into the petrogenesis of high-Ti continental flood basalts

The Early Cretaceous (∼135–131 Ma) Paraná-Etendeka continental flood basalts, preserved in bulk in the Paraná basin of southern Brazil and vicinity, have been divided into low-Ti and high-Ti types that govern the southern and northern halves of the basin, respectively. We have examined a new sample set from the southern margin of the northern high-Ti segment of Paraná basalts in Misiones, northeastern Argentina. These basalts are strongly to moderately enriched in TiO₂ (2–4 wt.%), have relatively high Ti/Y (300–500), low MgO (3.5–6.5 wt.%), and high Fe (FeO(tot) 12–14 wt.%) and belong to the Pitanga and Paranapanema magma types of Peate et al. (1992). Nd and Sr isotope compositions are quite unvarying with ε_Nd (at 133 Ma) values of −4.6 to −3.6 and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0.7054–0.7059 and show no variation with fractionation. Compared to high-Ti lavas in the central and northern parts of the Paraná high-Ti basalt segment, the lavas from Misiones are similar to those in the northeastern magin of the basin but less radiogenic in initial Nd isotope composition than those in the central part. This variation probably reflects mixed EM1-EM2 source components in the sublithospheric mantle. A polybaric melt model of a sublithospheric mantle source at the garnet lherzolite-spinel lherzolite transition is compatible with the observed Ti budget of the Pitanga and Paranapanema lavas, regardless of the Nd isotope composition of their purported source.     

Rainfall flood hazard at nuclear power plants in India

Flood hazard evaluation is an important input for Nuclear Power Plants external events safety studies. In the present study, flood hazard at various nuclear sites in India due to rainfall has been evaluated. Hazard estimation is a statistical procedure by which rainfall intensity versus occurrence frequency is estimated from historical records of rainfall data and extrapolated with asymptotic extreme value distribution. Rainfall data needed for flood hazard assessment are daily annual maximum rainfall (24?h data). The observed data points have been fitted using Gumbel, power law and exponential distribution, and return period has been estimated. To study the stationarity of rainfall data, a moving window estimate of the parameters has been performed. The rainfall pattern is stationary in both coastal and inland regions over the period of observation. The coastal regions show intense rainfall and higher variability than inland regions. Based on the plant layout, catchment area and drainage capacity, the prototype fast breeder reactor (PFBR) site is unlikely to be flooded.     

融雪洪水跳跃变异对其参数估计不确定性影响分析

利用Pettitt非参数检验法和Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验法,分析年最大洪峰流量序列的非一致性,确定序列的变异形式,采用“分解-合成”理论对其进行一致性修正,得到过去、现状两种条件下年最大洪峰流量序列,根据贝叶斯理论对序列一致性修正前后参数不确定性进行估计,并对其预报区间优良性进行评价。研究结果表明：年最大洪峰流量序列变异点发生在1993年,序列整体上升趋势不显著,在1957-1993年子序列呈显著下降趋势,而1994-2006年子序列变化趋势不显著,跳跃变异为序列主要变异形式;给出了实测、还原及还现序列参数后验分布估计值及95%置信区间,将其结合优化适线法进行P-Ⅲ型频率分析,得到修正前后设计频率年最大洪峰流量预报区间估计值;还原、还现序列与实测序列相比,预报区间覆盖率均提高24%,平均带宽分别减少39.59%、23.17%,平均偏移幅度分别减少28.45%、11.39%。通过对非一致性年最大洪峰流量序列还原/还现计算,可减小参数估计不确定性对其计算产生的影响,从而提高预报区间的可靠性。     

塔里木溢流玄武岩火山通道的三维结构及其热成因气体释放

塔里木上奥陶统-志留系沉积地层中广泛发育早二叠世溢流玄武岩的火山通道相岩床-岩墙网络。三维地震数据解释结果显示,这些火山通道以平行围岩地层的岩床和斜切围岩地层的"碟状岩床"为主要特征。在玄武岩喷发过程中,火山通道岩浆的热量可以导致沉积围岩发生热接触变质并将沉积围岩中的有机质转化为"热成因气体"。在塔北英买2井区火山通道烘烤沉积围岩模型基础上,利用有限元热模拟方法确定了该区早二叠世玄武岩喷发时火山通道热烘烤影响范围随时间的变化。基于沉积围岩有机质丰度估算,该区热烘烤成因甲烷释放量可达11.3Gt(即113亿吨)。如果整个塔里木溢流玄武岩省具有与英买2地区相同的释放强度,则塔里木溢流玄武岩省活动期间释放的甲烷总量可达7062.5Gt,必然导致非常显著的环境效应。同时,玄武岩火山通道岩浆引起的热接触变质作用对已存在的油藏具有明显的破坏作用,塔里木盆地古生界总量约8~10Gt的油藏破坏和大量沥青的形成可能与此有关。     

A novel approach to leveraging social media for rapid flood mapping: a case study of the 2015 South Carolina floods

Rapid flood mapping is critical for local authorities and emergency responders to identify areas in need of immediate attention. However, traditional data collection practices such as remote sensing and field surveying often fail to offer timely information during or right after a flooding event. Social media such as Twitter have emerged as a new data source for disaster management and flood mapping. Using the 2015 South Carolina floods as the study case, this paper introduces a novel approach to mapping the flood in near real time by leveraging Twitter data in geospatial processes. Specifically, in this study, we first analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of flood-related tweets using quantitative methods to better understand how Twitter activity is related to flood phenomena. Then, a kernel-based flood mapping model was developed to map the flooding possibility for the study area based on the water height points derived from tweets and stream gauges. The identified patterns of Twitter activity were used to assign the weights of flood model parameters. The feasibility and accuracy of the model was evaluated by comparing the model output with official inundation maps. Results show that the proposed approach could provide a consistent and comparable estimation of the flood situation in near real time, which is essential for improving the situational awareness during a flooding event to support decision-making.     

金沙江“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件在奔子栏—石鼓段的地貌作用和沉积特征

古堰塞湖溃决洪水事件的重建是当前地学研究的热点问题之一,寻找足够的可参考的现代溃决洪水事件案例是顺利开展这项工作的基础。2018年11月13日发生在金沙江干流的白格堰塞湖超万年一遇的溃决洪水事件(学术界称之为“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件)就是一个难得的样本。这次溃决事件发生在枯水期,洪峰完全由溃决洪水产生,没有叠加其他来源,对评估流域地貌和沉积体系对堰塞溃决事件的响应有很好的参考价值。本文以溃决洪水事件受灾最为严重的奔子栏—石鼓段为研究区,通过详细的野外调查和初步的水力学估算发现“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件在奔子栏—石鼓段的地貌作用主要表现为洪水淹没区的岸坡塌岸和沉积物堆积,未发现明显的基岩侵蚀。沉积物主要由分选良好的具水平纹层的砂组成。受金沙江较低的河床比降影响,洪水产生的基底剪切应力较弱在27~142 N/m²,不能悬浮和搬运直径5 cm以上的砾石,也不能产生明显的磨蚀和冲(撞)击作用。在发生塌岸的部分段落,洪水沉积物中有砾石坠入,甚至会出现类似浊流沉积的层序。这些现象的发现对深入理解堰塞湖溃决洪水的复杂地貌过程和沉积特征有重要参考意义。     

气候变化情景下澜沧江流域极端洪水事件研究

以澜沧江流域为研究对象,基于ISIMIP2b协议中提供的GFDL-ESM2M、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-LR、MIROC5这4种全球气候模式,通过4种模式的输出数据耦合VIC模型,分析4种模式在历史时期（1961—2005年)对洪峰洪量极值(年最大洪峰流量、3 d最大洪量)、极端洪水的模拟能力,比较RCR2.6和RCP6.0两种情景下未来时期（2021—2050年)年均径流量较基准期（1971—2000年)的变化情况,并结合P-III型分布曲线预估了澜沧江流域在两种情景下未来时期极端洪水的强度变化情况。结果表明：VIC模型在该流域能够较好地模拟极端洪水;HadGEM2-ES和MIROC5两种气候模式的输出数据在澜沧江流域有较好的径流模拟适用性;在RCP2.6情景下,澜沧江流域未来时期年均径流量没有明显变化,可能会有略微的增加,而在RCP6.0情景下,未来时期年均径流量有较大可能增加;澜沧江流域未来时期极端洪水较基准期,在RCP2.6情景下无明显变化,而在RCP6.0情景下,洪峰、洪量增加的可能性较大,极端洪水频率和强度也较大可能增加。     

内蒙古东南部暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划——以通辽市为例

文章选取通辽市各气象站点气象数据、基础地理信息数据、历史灾情数据、第二次土地调查数据及相关社会经济等统计数据,基于自然灾害风险原理,利用数理统计、层次分析法及空间叠加分析等方法,提出了通辽市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价指标体系,得到通辽市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估空间分布图。结果表明:高风险区主要分布在通辽市北部山区、中东部地区及偏南部地区,包括扎鲁特旗鲁北镇、科尔沁区、科左中旗东南部及库伦旗东南部;而科左后旗大部地区易形成由短时强降水引发的洪涝,为次高风险区;低风险区及次低风险区主要分布在通辽市中部、西南部地区,包括开鲁县、奈曼旗北部、科左中旗西部。