Safety assessment of infrastructures using a new Bayesian Monte Carlo method

A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo simulations. Our main objective in this research is to show that the extended BMC can dramatically improve simulation efficiency by using prior information from modelling and outcomes of preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for an extended BMC method for multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model and apply these coupled models to assessment of reliability of a flood defence for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. This is the first successful demonstration of the BMC method to a complex system. We provide a comparison of the numerical efficiency for the BMC, Monte Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Bounds methods that are used in reliability assessment of complex infrastructures.     

Testing and evaluation of strength and deformation behaviour of jointed rocks

The objective of the paper is to derive the strength and modulus properties of rockmass as a function of intact rock strength and joint factor. The joint factor reflects the combined effect of joint frequency, joint inclination and joint strength. A study for the strength and deformation characteristics of jointed rock is done by conducting standard laboratory tests on cylindrical specimens of plaster of Paris after introducing artificial joints. The specimens having one to four joints at different inclinations which vary from 0° to 90° were tested at different confining conditions. The test results were examined to understand the effect of joint frequency and joint inclination on the strength and deformation behaviour of rock mass. Empirical correlations were developed for prediction of the uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus of jointed rocks. Results are compared with the earlier work on jointed specimens covering a wide variety of rocks. So, knowing the intact rock properties and the joint factor, the jointed rock properties can be estimated. These relations can be used for developing an equivalent continuum model for rock mass for handling boundary value problems. A failure criterion as proposed by Ramamurthy (1993 Ramamurthy, T. 1993. “Strength and modulus response of anisotropic rocks”. In Comprehensive rock engineering, Edited by: Hudson, J.A. Vol. 1, 313–329. Oxford: Pergamon Press.  [Google Scholar]) has been validated from these experimental results.     

国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

频率－初速测桩法的应用与提高

本文对频率－初速测拉法的理论和实践作了进一步阐述，并针对测桩资质考核中存在的问题，提出若干技术对策。     

Frequency Effects of Fine Thin Layer

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水平成层场地动剪应变与震动速度关系解析

以SHAKE2000为代表的频域等效线性化是目前主流的土层地震动计算方法。由于该方法在软土场地计算结果严重不合理,其改进方法成为目前研究热点,主要采用频率相关法,但一直没有取得实效。对频率相关法中土体动剪应变和震动速度成恒定比例关系的基本假定进行研究,从波动方程推导出了均匀全空间单向行波、单一均匀半无限场地、成层场地等3种典型场地中土体剪应变与震动速度关系的精确解答,通过数值试验研究了这一假定的合理性与偏差程度。结果表明：动剪应变和震动速度成恒定比例关系这一假定只有在无边界均匀介质单向行波情形下才成立,对于实际成层土场地,动剪应变与震动速度关系强烈依赖于波的频率和观察点的位置,如果在土层地震反应分析中忽略反射波而采用单向行波恒定比例假定将会使计算结果产生显著偏差;动剪应变与震动速度成恒定比例关系的假定导致的偏差达4个量级,即使对于单一均匀半无限空间模型偏差也十分显著;对实际土层地震动的求解,该假定在理论上定性错误,定量上偏差不可接受,必须放弃而另寻其他途径。     

湟源地区“2010·07”暴雨洪水调查分析

2010年7月6日青海湟源地区普降暴雨,暴雨中心山根地区发生了200年一遇特大暴雨,湟源县董家庄水文站出现了200年一遇的特大洪水,造成了重大的洪涝灾害。本文通过这次暴雨洪水调查情况,对"2010·07"暴雨洪水特性进行了分析,以便为研究该地区暴雨洪水灾害及防治对策提供科学依据。     

潍坊市洪水资源利用现状及开发利用对策研究

洪水资源利用是解决潍坊市水资源短缺的重要途径.本文系统闸述了潍坊市降水及洪水特征,进行了洪水资源利用现状和潜力分析,提出了洪水资源安全利用的原则、前提条件、合理配置及利用模式,为该地区洪水资源的合理开发,持续利用提供了依据.     

甚低频电磁法在某萤石矿勘查中的应用

内蒙古海力敏萤石矿属热液脉型,萤石—石英矿受花岗岩体内NW向断裂破碎带控制。矿区开展了甚低频电磁法找矿勘查研究,在已知矿体上测得明显的甚低频电磁异常,证实了该方法对寻找此类萤石矿床的有效性。在不易识别开采的掩盖区,所测甚低频电磁异常显示控矿断裂带仍存在,极可能赋存萤石矿体。     

高山峡谷地区大型地下洞室群非平稳人工地震动拟合

基于近场地震记录频谱分析,结合地震危险性分析得到的基岩场地反应谱,进行了高山峡谷地区大型地下洞室群的人工地震动加速度时程的合成。该方法使用三角级数迭加法,利用攀枝花地震动记录进行傅里叶变换,得到离散点的傅里叶幅值谱,选择两个卓越频率作为控制傅里叶谱的峰值控制点,通过反复迭代生成了初始人工地震波,根据高山峡谷地形进行了深度修正、基线校正和高频滤波,最终生成了可以用于FLAC和ABAQUS等数值分析软件的人工地震动加速度-时程。数值分析表明,此方法拟合的人工地震波可以较好地反映不同频谱对地下洞室群强震响应的影响。