Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

City senses: On the radical possibilities of pragmatism in geography

This paper explores the radical possibilities of pragmatism for geography using the illustration of arguments concerning a renewed (urban) public realm through the exchange of validity claims in communication. Pressing further the pragmatist possibilities of Habermas’s idea of communicative action it draws on John Dewey’s work, and a range of contemporary pragmatist philosophers, to consider human communicability in its widest sense. This is then explored using an example of the spatiality and performativity of body-minds in a range of communicative spaces of the city. Then the paper moves on to consider the radical implications of pragmatism for geography in general in terms of body-mind/environment relations; a transactional view of space; experience, rationality and radical democracy.     

Identifying China’s leading world city: a network approach

This paper reports our research on China’s world cities. Formal network analysis of air passenger linkages for recent years among China’s most populous cities and among many of the world’s largest cities allows us to identify the country’s leading world city from among the leading Mainland candidates, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. We theorize our findings about China’s world cities in relation to both global forces (and China’s increasing entanglement with them) and the policies and actions of the national state. We examine the national and global urban network through a longitudinal, two-level analysis of airline passenger travel for four time points between about 1990 and 2005. We show that Beijing was China’s leading world city at the beginning of the time period, a status it lost nationally in as early as 1995, and then globally 10 years later. On the other hand Shanghai became China’s leading world city, and it acquired this status first nationally in 2000, and then globally in 2005. The changing status of the Chinese capital corresponds to the country’s increasing involvement with the capitalist world economy. Shanghai’s ascendance as the leading world city in China may indicate that global forces have come to play an increasingly important role relative to that of the developmental state.

青岛胶州湾地区重大工程建设项目设计的地质基础

本文以青岛胶州湾地区的基本地质条件为基础，分析研究了该地区地质基础对重大工程建设项目设计的影响，提出了青岛市重大工程项目设计的基本原则和对城市整体规划的具体建议。     

广州在沿海开放城市的旅游形象定位研究

根据国际形象设计发展趋势,提出城市旅游形象设计应有３个层次：一是城市旅游整体形象;二是城市旅游吸引物的特色形象;三是旅游企业形象。根据Ｊｅｎｓｅｎ－Ｖｅｒｂｅｋｅ都市旅游产品界定模式,结合广州实际,分析了广州的旅游吸引物,将广州旅游形象定位为（１）商都旅游,包括购物,美食、商务旅游和现代化城市景观的游览;（２）近现代史迹旅游,包括古代史迹和建筑艺术的观赏,其形象口号为“两个中心”,即商贸中心和近现     

东营城区高精度三维地震采集方法研究

根据东营城区内建筑物较多，环境干扰较大，地下构造复杂，断裂非常发育，目的层埋藏深，资料信噪比较低的特点，以地震老资料和钻井资料为基础，建立地震地质模型，利用射线追踪技术选取合适的观测系统参数。充分利用卫星数字地图，没计了灵活多变的观测系统，采用可控震源与炸药震源配合使用方法，及时对城区内地下面元的覆盖次数、方位角和炮检距的分布进行质量监控，利用现场处理系统对资料进行及时分析，提高了地震资料品质。所获得的东营城区高精度三维地震采集资料显示，其浅中层分辨率和中深层信噪比都有了明显改善，取得了良好的地质效果。     

Gradation affects basic mechanical characteristics of Chinese calcareous sand as airport subgrade of reefs

Abstract

Construction of the reefs in the South China Sea is a significant foundation to the secure stability and economic development of China. The construction of an airport runway is necessary for this realization. The calcareous sand is the main primary material in the runway construction. A certain type of calcareous sand near a certain reef of the South China Sea was studied in this paper. To investigate this specific calcareous sand, quartz sand was used as a reference for comparison. Microscopic 3-D imaging, compression and triaxial tests were conducted to test the micro, squeezing and shear properties. The effect mechanism of gradation on the calcareous sand’s compressibility and shear characteristics are discussed from a mesoscopic viewpoint using 3-D morphology. Calcareous sand particles are multiangular and flatter in comparison with quartz sand. The larger the particle sizes are, the more different the two sands’ morphologies are. The compressibility of calcareous sand is greater, and the effect of the coarse fraction (5–1?mm) content in the gradation plays the most significant role in this feature. When the coarse particles’ content is less than 25% and the mass ratio of the middle and fine particles (M) is constant, there is the worst coarse fraction content causing the calcareous sand to be most likely compressed. The worst coarse fraction content decreases with the increase in M, and an empirical formula is proposed. When the gradation, relative density and confining pressure are the same, the peak shear stress and strain of calcareous sand are all at a high level. The effect of confining pressure is manifested in calcareous sand. The shear strength and dilation of calcareous sand are also most affected by the medium coarse fraction (5–0.25?mm) content.     

青岛胶州湾3.2级地震构造背景与控震断裂

本文应用构造分析的方法 ,对青岛胶州湾 3.2级地震发生的地震地质背景和构造背景进行分析。结果表明 :胶州湾 3.2级地震主要受 NEE向郝官庄断裂和 NNW向大沽河断裂控制 ,并根据现代活动断裂的标志 ,对上述 2组断裂活动性特征作了阐述     

煤炭资源勘查误差理论研究

对煤炭资源勘查资源量与客观物质量之间差值的误差理论探讨,提出误差由真值误差、系统误差和离差3个基本部分组成,其中真值误差是不可消除的观测误差、系统误差是控制网度所决定的准确度标准、而离差是由地质构造及矿床形态的多解性产生的资源量波动。在此基础上,构筑了一个关于误差的数学模型,最后应用误差理论对现行勘查工作中常见的错误进行分析,并就如何避免错误及减少误差提出了见解。