A hybrid approach to modeling territorial control in violent armed conflicts

Territorial control is central to the understanding of violent armed conflicts, yet reliable and valid measures of this concept do not exist. We argue that geospatial analysis provides an important perspective to measure the concept. In particular, measuring territorial control can be seen as an application of calculating service areas around points of control. The modeling challenge is acute for areas with limited road infrastructure, where no complete network is available to perform the analysis, and movements largely occur off road. We present a new geospatial approach that applies network analysis on a hybrid transportation network with both actual road data and hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data representing on‐road and off‐road movements, respectively. Movement speed or restriction can be readily adjusted using various input data. Simulating off‐road movement with hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data has a number of advantages including scalability to small or large study areas and flexibility to allow all‐directional travel. We apply this method to measuring territorial control of armed groups in Sub‐Saharan Africa where inferior transport infrastructure is the norm. Based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Data (GED) as well as spatial data on terrain, population locations, and limited transportation networks, we enhance the delineation of the specific areas directly controlled by each warring party during civil wars within a given travel time.     

Present-day Block Movement and Fault Activity on the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

The geology and tectonics in the eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau are complex. The main tectonic framework is composed of blocks and faults. Using discontinuous global positioning system survey data for 2008–2014, the velocity field for the Eurasia reference framework was obtained. Based on the velocity field, the present-day velocities of the blocks and boundary faults were estimated. The results reveal that the movement rates of the Chuan-Qing, South China, Chuan-Dian and Indo-China blocks are(17.02±0.60) mm/a,(8.77±1.51) mm/a,(13.85±1.31) mm/a and(6.84 ± 0.74) mm/a, respectively, and their movement directions are 99.5°, 120.3°, 142.9° and 153.3°, respectively. All blocks exhibit clockwise rotation. The displacement rates of the Xianshuihe, Longmenshan, Anninghe, Zemuhe, Xiaojiang and Red River faults are(7.30±1.25–8.30±1.26) mm/a,(10.07±0.97–11.79±0.89) mm/a,(0.96±0.74–2.98±1.73) mm/a,(2.03±0.49–3.20±0.73) mm/a,(3.45±0.40–6.02±0.50) mm/a and(6.23±0.56) mm/a, respectively. The Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe and Xiaojiang faults show leftlateral strike-slip movement, while the Longmenshan and Red River faults show right-lateral strikeslip. These characteristics of the blocks and faults are related to the particular tectonic location and dynamic mechanism.     

贺兰山及周边地区加里东运动研究

基于对贺兰山及周边地区下古生界详细的野外地质调查,通过碎屑锆石年龄谱的物源分析、地层接触关系追踪、岩性岩相突变特征分析、残留地层分布、古生物组合及亲缘性分析,讨论了阿拉善地块与华北地块和中祁连地块的亲缘关系,探讨了研究区加里东运动的幕次,认为早古生代阿拉善地块和华北地块相互独立,俯冲造山特征建造不清晰,两者之间可能为转换型陆缘。阿拉善地块和中祁连地块之间的加里东运动幕次清晰。加里东运动一幕发生在中-晚寒武世,香山群深水复理石沉积和张夏组浅水碳酸盐台地相沉积呈拼合式接触,生物组合为亲华北-亲祁连混合型,彼时中祁连地块从Rodinia大陆裂离,逐步靠近阿拉善地块;加里东运动二幕发生在早-中奥陶世,下奥陶统碳酸盐岩在全区稳定分布,与下伏香山群不整合接触,与阿不且亥组整合接触,生物相统一,生物组合为华北型,中祁连地块-阿拉善地块-华北地块平和成为一个统一的块体,整体为浅水台地沉积环境;加里东运动三幕发生在奥陶纪末,中-上奥陶统与泥盆系角度不整合接触,商丹洋闭合,扬子地块与阿拉善地块和华北地块靠近,商丹缝合带南部的宽坪洋打开,导致研究区中、晚奥陶世亲华北-亲扬子混合型生物组合类型。     

Why GPS makes distances bigger than they are

Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is – on average – bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic ‘overestimation of distance’ becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected.     

Influence of prey abundance and abiotic factors on the long-term home-range and movement dynamics of spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii in an intermittently open estuary

Long-term home-range and movement dynamics of spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii and the distribution of their dominant prey, the sandprawn Callichirus kraussi, were investigated in the intermittently open East Kleinemonde Estuary, South Africa. In addition, the effects of fish length, diel cycle, season and other abiotic factors on home range and area use were examined. Nine adult spotted grunter (326–489?mm total length) were tagged with acoustic transmitters, and their movements were studied by manual tracking on six consecutive days and nights during each of five tracking sessions from March to November 2004. In addition, movement patterns were recorded by stationary data-logging receivers. Kernel home ranges (95% utilised distribution) varied in size (mean: 76 797?m²?, range: 26 296–165 321?m²), but were all located in the lower one-third of the 3.6 km-long estuary. There was no effect of season, the diel cycle or fish length on the home-range estimates. However, the distribution of prey corresponded with the home-range distribution of tagged fish. Although sandprawn distribution was highly variable within and among transects and depth classes, sandprawns were most abundant in the lower region of the estuary, which corresponded to the home-range distribution of spotted grunter. Spatial distribution of prey appears to be a dominant factor influencing home-range parameters of this species within an intermittently open estuary.     

Discussion on the dextral movement and its effect in continental China and adjacent areas since Cenozoic

Continental China has moved dextral Eastward since Cenozoic time, driven by the collision of the Indian with the Eurasian plate. Evidence for this comes from landscape evolution, the distribution of earthquake epicenters, Cenozoic sedimentary and volcanic rocks, and the measurement of GPS velocity vectors, the distribution of crustal stress, paleomagnetic data, and deep mantle structure, among others. This movement commenced around 40 Ma, coupled with thickened lithosphere and widespread stress release along strike-slip faults that bound the continental Chinese block. Because of continued Northward subduction of the Indian plate, manifestation of the dextral movement has intensified since 25 Ma. Far-reaching effects include extensive strike-slip movement on the Tan-Lu fault in Eastern China, formation of the Dabie ultrahigh pressure metamorphic terrane, extensive thrust faults in East China, delamination and thickening of the lithosphere of South China, a possible tectonic doubling of the Middle-Lower Yangtze Valley metallogenic belt, and the formation of the Japan, Huanghai (East China), and South China Sea.     

Design principles for origin-destination flow maps

Origin-destination flow maps are often difficult to read due to overlapping flows. Cartographers have developed design principles in manual cartography for origin-destination flow maps to reduce overlaps and increase readability. These design principles are identified and documented using a quantitative content analysis of 97 geographic origin-destination flow maps without branching or merging flows. The effectiveness of selected design principles is verified in a user study with 215 participants. Findings show that (a) curved flows are more effective than straight flows, (b) arrows indicate direction more effectively than tapered line widths, and (c) flows between nodes are more effective than flows between areas. These findings, combined with results from user studies in graph drawing, conclude that effective and efficient origin-destination flow maps should be designed according to the following design principles: overlaps between flows are minimized; symmetric flows are preferred to asymmetric flows; longer flows are curved more than shorter or peripheral flows; acute angles between crossing flows are avoided; sharp bends in flow lines are avoided; flows do not pass under unconnected nodes; flows are radially distributed around nodes; flow direction is indicated with arrowheads; and flow width is scaled with represented quantity.     

中国西部活动地块运动模型的建立及其运动学分析

中国西部的青藏和新疆地区现代构造变形活动非常强烈, 业已证实该区可以进一步划分为塔里木、 阿拉善、 天山、 柴达木和西藏5个活动地块。 利用GPS观测资料得到的中国大陆地壳水平运动的速度场, 借鉴全球板块运动模型的建模方法, 将其视为刚性的地块系统, 反演得到各地块相对欧亚板块运动的欧拉矢量, 进而求得各地块两两之间相对运动的欧拉矢量, 并计算出沿地块边界的相对运动速率。 结果显示, 与地块边界上的地震滑移矢量, 由地质学资料得到的滑移速率, 以及GPS数据本身均有较好的一致性, 从而也说明了将该地区划分为若干活动地块并视为刚性地块的合理性。     

福建及沿海地区地震活动力源探讨

综合地震震源机制解和地壳形变观测资料的研究, 求得福建及其沿海地区现代震源应力场, 认为这与台湾地区、 台湾海峡应力场相互衔接, 主压应力轴优势方位为NW-SE向, 力轴仰角较小, 应力场近于水平挤压, 形变场反映近期福建沿海亦受北西方向, 接近与海岸垂直的挤压力。 进一步分析该区域内的断裂构造特征和地震活动强度由东至西逐渐减弱的规律, 认为菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块的相互作用力不仅是台湾强震力源所在, 而且其影响向西扩展, 福建及其沿海地区地震活动主要力源仍然是来自这两大板块的相互作用力。     

中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究

利用GPS观测结果研究了中国大陆当前地壳运动的空间分布及其所揭示的大区域构造变形背景与趋势;讨论了区域水平运动、应变率场分布与强震地点的关系;通过对昆仑山口西Ms8.1等地震区域水平运动与形变的分析,研究了强震过程的区域形变场变化的主要特征;提出了识别孕震形变场以进行中长期强震地点预测的思路和途径。