中国南海东部海域气候特征及风浪流极值参数的研究——LAGFD数值模式群的应用

本文采用先进的ＬＡＧＦＤ风、浪数值模式和ＰＯＭ（ＰｒｉｎｃｅｔｏｎＯｃｅａｎＭｏｄｅｌ）三维海流模式对自１９４５～１９９５年间发生并影响南海东部海域的２９９个历史最强热带气旋过程进行数值后报,给出了南海东部部分海域（１９°～２３°Ｎ,１１３°～１１８°Ｅ）中１０００ｍ等深线内６０个点的多年一遇风、浪、流和水位极值,并简要分析了南海东部（１５°～２７°Ｎ,１０８°～１２２°Ｅ）的气候特征,为该海域区域性海洋环境研究与工程开发提供了基础参考数据。     

新生代6次陨击事件研究及存在问题

陨击事件对古生物灭绝、古气候、古地质环境演化有重要影响。结合我们在陨击事件方面的新研究成果,探讨了新生代6次主要陨击事件的研究动态及存在问题。近几年来,一些新的陨击证据被进一步发现,有的微玻璃陨石场的分布范围进一步扩大,有的相关源陨击坑的研究取得了新的进展,当然,还有一些难解之谜需要进一步探讨。     

长江水下三角洲沉积物柱状样重金属垂向分布特征

对长江水下三角洲3个沉积物柱状样进行粒度分析、²¹⁰Pb测年,并测定其中Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn等重金属元素和Al等常量元素的含量,得到了沉积物粒度、粘土含量、重金属含量的垂向分布曲线和沉积物测年数据。通过相关分析来研究沉积物中的Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn等重金属、粒度、Al相互之间的关系;以Al为参照元素对这4种重金属进行归一化处理,分析其归一化前后的垂向分布特征。结果表明,Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn 4种重金属元素在此区域的地球化学行为相似,其分布受细颗粒沉积物的吸附和胶体的絮凝作用共同控制;近一二十年来,该区域的Cr、Cu、Pb含量并没有显著增加,Zn有轻微污染。此外,CJ19柱中Cu存在异常峰值,可能是特大风暴潮事件对研究区浅水区底质沉积物中重金属的分布造成的影响。     

Modelling the long-term distribution of significant wave height with the Beta and Gamma models

The paper suggests modelling the long-term distribution of significant wave height with the Gamma, Beta of the first and second kind models. The three models are interrelated, flexible and cover the three different tail types of Extreme Value Theory. They can be used simultaneously as a means of assessing the uncertainty effects that result from choosing equally plausible models with different tail types. This procedure is intended for those applications that require the long-term distribution of significant wave height as input rather than the prediction of extreme values. The models are fitted to some significant wave data as an illustration. Details about maximum likelihood estimation are given in A.     

方向分布对三维聚焦波浪波面特性影响研究

波浪聚焦被认为是产生极限波浪的重要机理之一,近年来受到普遍重视。通过高阶谱方法,引入造波边界建立数值计算模型,模拟聚焦波浪在不同方向分布时的产生和聚焦过程,研究波浪的方向分布对聚焦波浪的波面、波峰最大值、聚焦点的偏移、波面参数及频谱的影响。研究结果表明波浪方向分布越窄,波浪的非线性影响越强、波面越陡,波峰值、聚焦点的偏移和波面特征参数都越大;同时方向分布对波浪聚焦前后的能量具有很大的影响。     

极限波浪运动特性的非线性数值模拟

利用时域高阶边界元方法建立了模拟极限波浪运动的完全非线性数值模型,其中自由水面满足完全非线性自由水面条件.采用半混合欧拉-拉格朗日方法追踪流体瞬时水面,运用四阶Runge-Kutta方法更新下一时间步的波面和速度势,同时应用镜像格林函数消除水槽两个侧面和底面上的积分.研究中利用波浪聚焦的方法产生极限波浪,并且在水槽中开展了物理模型实验,将测点试验数据与数值结果进行了对比,两者吻合得很好.对极限波浪运动的非线性和流域内速度分布进行了研究.     

Effects of wave directionality on extreme response for a long end-anchored floating bridge

Reliable design codes are of great importance when constructing new civil engineering concepts such as floating bridges. Previously only a scarce number of floating bridges have been built in rough wave conditions and only limited knowledge of the extreme environmental conditions and the associated extreme response exists. To form a better design basis an increased understanding of the sensitivity in the structural response towards changes in short-crested sea parameters is needed. Furthermore, acquiring the necessary accuracy in simulated extreme response is often a computationally expensive endeavour and the number of simulations needed is often based on experience. The present study investigates the wave-induced short-term extreme response of a simplified end-anchored floating bridge concept for several wave environments with a return period of 100 years. The study includes convergence of the coefficient of variation for the extreme response for different realization lengths as well as number of realizations. The sensitivity in the structural response towards different main wave directions and spreading exponents is investigated and includes both transverse and vertical displacement response spectra and extreme Von Mises stress in the bridge girder cross-section. The extreme response is based on an accuracy of 2% in the coefficient of variation equivalent to 40 3-h realizations and a low sensitivity in the response is found for natural occurring spreading exponents and for main wave directions within 15° from beam sea.     

极地低压对费拉姆海峡大西洋入流水天气尺度变化的影响

The Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait(78°50′N) has synoptic scale variability based on an array of moorings over the period of 1998–2010. The synoptic scale variability of Atlantic inflow, whose significant cycle is 3–16 d, occurs mainly in winter and spring(from January to April) and is related with polar lows in the Barents Sea. On the synoptic scale, the enhancement(weakening) of Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait is accompanied by less(more)polar lows in the Barents Sea. Wind stress curl induced by polar lows in the Barents Sea causes Ekman-transport,leads to decrease of sea surface height in the Barents Sea, due to geostrophic adjustment, further induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly around the Barents Sea, and causes the weakening of the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait. Our results highlight the importance of polar lows in forcing the Atlantic inflow in the Fram Strait and can help us to further understand the effect of Atlantic warm water on the change of the Arctic Ocean.     

深水立管设计标准中内波作用的分析与探讨

深水立管的设计、建造以及安装都必须依据相关规范进行,中国当前尚未出台专门针对立管设计的相关标准,现阶段还是以参考国外规范为主。本文首先对立管设计、安装中涉及的相关规范和工业标准进行介绍,论述当前国外API、ABS和DNV设计规范中关于深水立管环境条件及其载荷的相关规定,然后针对中国南海等海域普遍存在的内波现象,分析了内波尤其是内孤立波对顶张力立管的影响,结果表明,内孤立波会引起立管较大的位移以及较高的应力幅值,需要在设计分析中加以考虑。最后对中国在引入API、ABS和DNV等相关规范设计深水立管时提出相应的建议,以期为南海海域油气开发中立管的设计提供参考。     

1010号台风“莫兰蒂”对福建近海风场的影响及其成因分析

分析福建沿岸区域气象自动站、近海气象浮标站等有关风的精细观测资料以及NCEP再分析、雷达反演风场等资料,研究了2010年第10号台风"莫兰蒂"影响福建期间,福建近海风场分布的特点及其成因,以寻找台风影响时福建近海风场预报的着眼点.结果表明:受到环境场及台湾海峡狭管效应,气流与中央山脉之间绕流、阻挡等共同作用,1010号台风"莫兰蒂"影响福建期间,大风在海区上主要集中分布在台风环流东部和福建北部海区;福建中部沿海最早出现大风;而大部分台风影响时间中,中部沿海风力大于北部、南部沿海风力,呈现中间大两头小的布局.特别是1010号台风"莫兰蒂",进入台湾海峡后发展成微型台风,靠近台风的测站在台风临近时才大风突起.而这种微型台风,大风天气突发性强,在风的精细预报中要特别注意短时临近的监控监测.对比各种资料的应用效果表明:NCEP再分析资料反映的主要是海区的大风分布;雷达反演风场,必须结合实况资料验证,具有一定的参考价值;近海浮标站资料,能较早反映台风影响时风场的演变特点,但近海浮标站所观测的海区风力不一定大于相近的沿岸区域气象自动站所观测的沿海风力,二者所观测到的风力、风向的变化与台风位置密切相关.在业务预报中,对近海浮标站资料的应用,还需深入研究,具体情况具体分析.