IS THE EXTREME SNOW DEPTH RECORD FOR NORDLAND,NORWAY RELIABLE?

A snow depth of 370 cm at Dunderlandsdalen in winter 1919–20 is the largest recorded at stations in Nordland, Norway. During the period 1895–1924, the average maximum annual value there was 150.4 cm; at other stations it ranged from 38.5 to 190.1 cm. The ratio of maxima at other stations to that at Dunderlandsdalen was particularly low in 1919–20. In Nordland generally, that winter's recorded precipitation was slightly above the 30‐year average, but at Dunderlandsdalen it exceeded the average by 34%. At all stations except Dunderlandsdalen, 26 Jan.–1 Feb. was a dry period; at Dunderlandsdalen, 51.7 mm was recorded. Only one day without snowfall was recorded at Dunderlandsdalen between early January and early February, but elsewhere there were few days with snowfall. The difference in snowfall frequency and snow depth at Dunderlandsdalen in 1919–20 from values recorded elsewhere in Nordland contrasts with the relationships in other winters between 1895 and 1924. No observations were made at Dunderlandsdalen in winter 1917–18. Two of the householders there died in 1916. A change of personnel making the observations may have been responsible for the data gap and for the anomalous 1919 data. Changes made to buildings or the recording site in 1917 or 1918 may have resulted in increased snow depths as a result of drifting. Maintaining a record of climatic extremes and their environmental consequences is important. Data must be accurate. In view of this, it would be sensible to regard the validity of the 370 cm Dunderlandsdalen maximum as doubtful.     

Variability of levee failure mechanisms subject to heavy rainfalls,case studies in Taiwan

In this study, the failure mechanisms for Chiuliao 1st Levee and Gueishan Levee in Taiwan were re-examined comprehensively considering the uncertainty of different parameters. Results have shown that for Chiuliao 1st Levee, the slope sliding failure has a higher coefficient of variation (COV). For Gueishan Levee, retaining wall sliding and overturning failure have higher values of COV instead. It can also be found that the scouring depths affect the stability of the levee significantly, therefore, a protecting system for the backfill material may be necessary to increase the stability of the levee effectively.     

广西桂林凉风洞秋冬季滴水和沉积物氧同位素对极端降水的记录研究

近年来,全球环境变化导致的极端气候事件的发生频率剧增,引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。由于器测记录时间较短,因此需要通过精确连续记录古气候变化的石笋来解译极端气候事件的规律。本文针对桂林凉风洞2015年9月至2016年1月的大气降水、洞穴滴水和现代沉积物的氧同位素组成进行了高分辨率的监测。监测结果揭示了由于秋冬水汽源的改变,导致桂林地区大气降水δD、δ~(18)O同位素值显示逐渐偏正的季节性变化,并且建立了该区域大气降水线为:δD=8.8δ~(18)O+16.38。由于大气降水作为凉风洞水源补给唯一来源,使得洞穴滴水的δ~(18)O继承大气降水的δ~(18)O所蕴含的环境信息,进而记录在洞穴现代沉积物中。但是受到洞穴顶部岩溶表层带的平滑或者均一化的作用,使得洞穴滴水的δ~(18)O同位素值要偏正于大气降水的δ~(18)O同位素值。在极端降水信号输入岩溶表层带后由于存在不同的水文地球化学过程,从而导致洞穴沉积物对其极端降水事件的响应时间存在不同,并且在δ~(18)O同位素值也存在明显差异。因此,系统监测洞穴滴水、沉积物δ~(18)O同位素对外界环境信息的响应过程,能为量化或精确解译石笋δ~(18)O同位素记录所指代的古气候环境信息提供基础。     

昆明长水机场气候特征分析

利用昆明市1951—2010年逐日气象数据,采用回归分析法和Mann-Kendall突变分析法进行分析和检验,确定了昆明市极端降水和极端温度天气事件。在此基础上,对昆明长水机场极端天气背景下大雾天气航班安全运行开展研究,并在对比昆明长水机场与原巫家坝机场大雾特点的基础上,制定出航班安全运行的应对措施。研究表明,近几年昆明市极端温度和极端降水事件呈现增多趋势;因地形原因,长水机场出现大雾的频率远高于原巫家坝机场;大雾造成的低能见度天气背景下,航班的安全运行需要航空公司各部门的通力协作。     

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.     

2000年后中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水减少及水汽输送特征

本文研究了1961～2016年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率的年代际变化特征,并进一步分析了该地区极端降水和普通降水的大气环流和水汽输送的差异。主要的研究结果表明:1961～2016年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率在2000年前后发生显著年代际变化,2000年后夏季极端降水天数和极端降水贡献率显著减少。与1984～1999年相比,2000～2016年在对流层高层从欧洲大陆、中亚到东北—蒙古地区,位势高度异常呈现出“正—负—正”的大气波列,从而造成北方东部地区上空为正压的位势高度正异常控制,伴随着下沉运动,大气层结趋于稳定,这些环流条件不利于极端降水发生。2000年后负位相的太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）和正位相的北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）共同加强了北方东部地区上空的正位势高度异常。进一步研究表明,极端降水与普通降水的水汽输送和收支以及关键的局地大气系统存在着显著差异,较普通降水而言,极端降水在南北向水汽输送和收支上更强;北方东部地区低空为较强的闭合低压控制,并不断受到高层高位涡空气下传的影响。     

两个相似路径台风残余造成局地特大暴雨的成因机制和能量收支对比分析

本文利用ERA-Interim 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料、自动站小时和分钟加密资料、风云2G（FY-2G）卫星红外云图及多普勒雷达和风廓线雷达资料对2015年路径高度相似的“苏迪罗”和“杜鹃”台风在浙江沿海引发的局地特大暴雨进行对比分析。这两次降水过程都是在台风减弱为热带低压甚至残压并深入内陆远离浙江沿海后发生的。结果表明,“苏迪罗”降水过程是由低层强东南和偏南急流长时间辐合加上有利地形共同作用导致的;经向环流背景下来自季风持续的水汽输送有利于“苏迪罗”维持较长的生命史和稳定的降水。“杜鹃”残压特大暴雨的触发系统则是高纬地面冷高压底部的东东北出流南下与“杜鹃”北象限的东东南风交汇形成的中尺度倒槽;纬向环流和强盛副热带高压造成的弱引导气流及夏季风南撤和低涡卷挟造成的水汽通道断裂是“杜鹃”登陆后快速减弱为残压和降水维持时间较短的原因。两次台风降水过程中均无外部动能输送和来自有效位能的动能转换。动能收支的主要影响因子为中低层局地次网格运动间的能量转换、旋转风和散度风效应及下垫面的摩擦耗散。所以,虽然“杜鹃”的对流有效位能很小,但仍可造成强对流和特大暴雨。此外,降水过程中释放的凝结潜热造成的局地非绝热加热使气柱中显热能大量累积,促使地面中小尺度涡旋和倒槽不断加深,造成降水的增幅。     

2018年一次罕见早春飑线大风过程演变和机理分析

2018年3月4—5日,华南、江南等地发生了一次大范围强对流过程,发生时间早,落区范围广,多地伴有雷暴大风、冰雹、短时强降水等剧烈对流天气,尤其飑线在江西境内造成了严重大风灾害。基于大气环流和雷达回波发展演变特征,将该次过程分为初始、发展和减弱三个阶段：初始阶段西风槽前西南急流造成的低压倒槽为强对流提供大尺度触发条件;发展阶段对流活动位于槽前暖区中,飑线在江西造成极端大风;入夜后,冷锋南下,对流进入减弱阶段。环境场及对流参数诊断表明江西中北部低层高温高湿,中层干冷,温度垂直递减率大,有利于产生雷暴大风。南昌探空长时间序列分析表明温湿要素气候态异常,与历史同期比,低层明显偏暖偏湿,中层偏干,有利于极端对流天气发生。综合多源观测资料和雷达资料分析中小尺度特征,本次江西飑线过程特点及成因包括：（1）受引导气流和前向传播共同作用,飑线移动速度快。（2）自动站分析显示飑锋后雷暴高压强,与锋前暖低压作用造成强密度流,有利于产生大范围直线型大风;（3）通过对比飑线弓状回波南北段回波结构差异表明,飑线后侧中层干后向入流促使降水粒子相变,剧烈降温形成的强下沉运动(下击暴流)是导致极端大风的主要原因,后部层云区下沉气流增强雷暴高压加之动量下传作用对雷暴大风有增幅作用。     

极限波浪运动特性的非线性数值模拟

利用时域高阶边界元方法建立了模拟极限波浪运动的完全非线性数值模型,其中自由水面满足完全非线性自由水面条件.采用半混合欧拉-拉格朗日方法追踪流体瞬时水面,运用四阶Runge-Kutta方法更新下一时间步的波面和速度势,同时应用镜像格林函数消除水槽两个侧面和底面上的积分.研究中利用波浪聚焦的方法产生极限波浪,并且在水槽中开展了物理模型实验,将测点试验数据与数值结果进行了对比,两者吻合得很好.对极限波浪运动的非线性和流域内速度分布进行了研究.     

Effects of wave directionality on extreme response for a long end-anchored floating bridge

Reliable design codes are of great importance when constructing new civil engineering concepts such as floating bridges. Previously only a scarce number of floating bridges have been built in rough wave conditions and only limited knowledge of the extreme environmental conditions and the associated extreme response exists. To form a better design basis an increased understanding of the sensitivity in the structural response towards changes in short-crested sea parameters is needed. Furthermore, acquiring the necessary accuracy in simulated extreme response is often a computationally expensive endeavour and the number of simulations needed is often based on experience. The present study investigates the wave-induced short-term extreme response of a simplified end-anchored floating bridge concept for several wave environments with a return period of 100 years. The study includes convergence of the coefficient of variation for the extreme response for different realization lengths as well as number of realizations. The sensitivity in the structural response towards different main wave directions and spreading exponents is investigated and includes both transverse and vertical displacement response spectra and extreme Von Mises stress in the bridge girder cross-section. The extreme response is based on an accuracy of 2% in the coefficient of variation equivalent to 40 3-h realizations and a low sensitivity in the response is found for natural occurring spreading exponents and for main wave directions within 15° from beam sea.