南海东北部台风潮的数值后报及极值增水估计

本研究对近40年来影响南海东北部陆架海区的28次台风引起的风暴潮进行了数值后报,其中8个过程的沿岸后报增水值与实测值进行了比较,表明后报值与实测值符合良好,90%以上的最大增水值偏差在30厘米以下。为了得出本海区多年一遇的台风增水极值,在后报台风路径密集处选择了9个不同水深点,对每点取出各次台风下的最大增水值,然后用Weibull分布进行拟合,得出了各点的极值分布。     

Nonlinear Static Finite Element Stress Analysis of Pipe-in-Pipe Risers

Owing to the complexity of the pipe-in-pipe (PIP) riser system in structure, load and restraint, many problems arise in the structural analysis of the system. This paper presents a new method for nonlinear static finite element stress analysis of the PIP riser system. The finite element (FE) model of the PIP riser system is built via software AutoPIPE 6.1. According to the specialties of a variety of components in the PIP riser system, different elements are used so as to model the system accurately. Allowing for the complication in modeling the effects of seabed restraint, a technique based on the bilinear spring concept is developed to calculate the soil properties. Then, based on a pipeline project, the entire procedure of stress analysis is discussed in detail, including creation of an FE model, processing of input data and analysis of results. A wide range of loading schemes is investigated to ascertain that the stresses remain within the acceptable range of the pipe material strength. Finally, the effects of the location of flanges, the thermal expansion of submarine pipelines and the seabed restraint on stress distribution in the riser and expansion loop are studied, which are valuable for pipeline designers.     

旧路改建高速公路中地基强夯效应测试与工艺参数分析

旧路改建高速公路遇到的最主要的问题是地基的不均匀沉降。数值分析表明,对新的天然地基进行处理是解决这一问题的关键。强夯是加固地基的一种有效措施,为了对强夯工艺参数进行优化研究,对夯锤冲击地面过程中产生的动孔隙水压力、动土应力以及夯后超静孔隙水压力的消散过程进行了跟踪测试与分析。结果表明,对以风化料为主的地基,最大夯击数不宜超过4击,而且铺底夯完成2d后就可进行满夯。     

Time-dependent stress change during failure of rocks

The energy balance of a solid subject to fracture has been explored using heat and mass transfer equations with regard to the volumetric and superficial components. In the suggested model, brittle fracture of a cracked solid considered as a heterogeneous two-phase medium is described by an equation analogous to the Griffith’s criterion for propagation of a single crack. The derived equation is used, together with estimates of relative change in specific interface area, to study the respective change of free strain energy and pressure in rocks associated with failure.     

西藏札达盆地控盆断裂有限元数值模拟

札达盆地是喜马拉雅构造带中的一个山间断陷盆地,其演化过程与盆地两侧的控盆构造密切相关。对控盆断裂的构造应力场进行模拟计算,将有助于进一步深化对本区构造控盆的认识。因此,在对盆地构造地质进行详细调查的基础上,结合本区的深部地质与地球物理资料,对札达盆地控盆断裂的构造应力场进行了模拟。计算结果表明,札达盆地的演化明显受盆地两侧边界断裂的控制,札达盆地是在整体南北向挤压应力的作用下,不同块体差异隆升作用的结果。其南侧的控盆断裂为北倾的正断层,北侧的控盆断裂为南倾的逆断层,二者共同形成了南降北升的翘板式断陷盆地运动过程,是喜马拉雅地块在陆内汇聚挤压构造环境中构造应力场调整的一种方式。     

Extreme value analysis of diamond-size distributions

Extreme value analysis provides a semiparametric method for analyzing the extreme long tails of skew distributions which may be observed when handling mining data. The estimation of important tail characteristics, such as the extreme value index, allows for a discrimination between competing distribution models. It measures the thickness of such long tailed distributions, if only a limited sample is available. This paper stresses the practical implementation of extreme value theory, which is used to discriminate a lognormal from a mixed lognormal distribution in a case study of size distributions for alluvial diamonds.     

大别杂岩中混合岩的矿物空间分布研究

介绍了矿物空间分布研究的基本原理及两种统计方法(接触频数法和线切法)。作者对混合岩矿物空间分布的研究表明:(1)前人提出的统计方法存在方法上的缺陷和应用上的局限性,作者推导出矿物接触类型的概率公式;(2)部分浅色体中矿物显示聚集分布的特征,而绝大部分的浅色体中矿物具有分散分布的特点。结合质量平衡和地球化学研究认为:大别杂岩中主体混合岩成因机制是重熔和交代作用。     

On the physical model of earthquake precursor fields and the mechanism of precursors＇timespace distribution──origin and evidences of the strong body earthquake──generating model

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中国三个大地震的震源参数及讨论

大地震的震源机制及地震矩、应力降等参数,不(又对认识地震的破裂过程,而且对预报强地面运动都是非常重要的。一些文章对板内地震应力降的特点、地震矩与高频源谱的关系及区域特征的讨论,使我们可直接由长周期体波或面波得出的地震矩M₀估计出不同地区中大地震的高频源谱,以供强地面运动预报参考。 由于对发生在中国板内的1976年11月6日盐源地震（M_s=6.5）和1976年11月15日宁河地震（M_s=6.3）的震源参数还没有详尽的报道;另外,对1973年7月14日     

大理州2005年初夏干旱成因探析

大理州2005年初夏出现了严重干旱气象事件.从500pHa高空环流特征、500pHa距平场特征、西太平洋副高特征量及北太平洋中低纬海温距平场、OLR距平场对这次干旱的成因进行了分析,分析结果表明：2005年初夏（4月1日～6月10日）降水异常偏少气温明显偏高是发生干旱的主要原因,高空大气环流异常、西太平洋副高持续偏强偏西、冷空气活动偏北是导致干旱的直接原因;孟加拉湾南部4月OLR场呈明显正距平,抑制低值系统的发展和东北移影响云南,是影响2005年大理初夏干旱重要原因;北太平洋中低纬海温特征与大理州初夏干旱有一定的遥相关性.