应力释放模型的改进及其在研究台湾地区地震预测问题中的应用.

应力释放模型过去主要用于研究大范围历史大地震活动规律．本文对应力释放模型进行了改进，对其能否运用于区域更小、时段更短、震级更低的情况进行了探讨；以台湾地区近百年6级以上地震为例的研究结果表明，应力释放模型仍然适用．在回溯性的地震预测检验中，用改进的应力释放模型计算出台湾地区地震发生的条件概率强度，并用其预测6级以上地震的发震时刻．结果表明，其预测精度优于泊松模型．      

唐山地震震源区构造应力场强度的初步分析

利用唐山地区丰富的震源机制解资料反演构造应力场，并结合构造物理研究手段，对唐山地震震源区现代构造应力场的3个主应力绝对量值进行了估算，给出了地壳介质参数取理论平均值的情况下，唐山地震震源区构造应力场３个主应力量值随深度的变化趋势．研究分析了摩擦系数c、孔隙压力P0和应力形因子 等参数与应力值的关系，发现最大主应力1的垂向增长率与摩擦系数c成正比，与孔隙压力P0和应力形因子成反比；而最小应力值3的垂向增长率与孔隙压力P0成正比，与摩擦系数c和应力形因子成反比．本文对应用震源机制解资料反演完整的应力张量进行了一次有意义的尝试．      

中国与美国西部平均构造剪应力值的比较

提出了一种估计一个地区平均构造剪应力值的方法．用这种方法，选取哈佛大学公布的1977～1999年共15 993次地震的矩张量数据，估计了美国西部19个地区、中国和邻区43个地区(每个地区为1010范围)的平均环境剪应力值．结果表明，美国西部南加州西部海域和南加州应力最高，达13.7和12.0 MPa，然后向北、向南和向东逐渐递减，但最小也达8.7 MPa，是最高值的63%．中国新疆西北部地区和西藏察隅地区应力水平最高，达17.2和12.9 MPa，比美国高．中国的华北、云南、四川、台湾和美国南加州的应力水平差不多．中国南北地震带的应力水平为13 MPa左右，比南加州略高．两个重要地区的平均剪应力值分布图，提供了地学的基本数据．这些结果可为研究地震活动的大背景提供依据，对研究强地面运动参数(如峰值加速度及反应谱等)的衰减关系也是有用的．      

Effective stress analyses of liquefaction-induced deformation in river dikes

A series of effective stress analyses is carried out on the seismic performance of river dikes based on the case histories during the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-oki and 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquakes in Japan. Seven case histories selected for the analyses involve a crest settlement ranging from none to 2.7 m in the dikes 3–6 m high with evidence of liquefaction at foundation soil. The effective stress model used is based on a multiple shear mechanism and was developed by one of the authors. The soil parameters are evaluated based on the site investigation and laboratory test results. The results of the analyses are basically consistent with the observed performance of the river dikes. In particular, the effective stress model shows a reasonable capability to reproduce the varying degree of settlements depending on the geotechnical conditions of foundation soils beneath the dikes. The analyses also indicate that the effect of a cohesive soil layer mixed with the liquefiable sand layers beneath the dikes can be a primary factor for reducing the liquefaction-induced deformation of dikes.     

Shallow seismicity, stress distribution and crustal deformation pattern in the Andaman-West Sunda arc and Andaman Sea, northeastern Indian Ocean

Shallow seismicity and available source mechanisms in the Andaman–westSunda arc and Andaman sea region suggest distinct variation in stressdistribution pattern both along and across the arc in the overriding plate.Seismotectonic regionalisation indicates that the region could be dividedinto eight broad seismogenic sources of relatively homogeneousdeformation. Crustal deformation rates have been determined for each oneof these sources based on the summation of moment tensors. The analysisshowed that the entire fore arc region is dominated by compressive stresseswith compression in a mean direction of N23^°, and the rates ofseismic deformation velocities in this belt decrease northward from 5.2± 0.65 mm/yr near Nias island off Sumatra and 1.12 ±0.13 mm/yr near Great Nicobar islands to as much as 0.4 ±0.04 mm/yr north of 8^°N along Andaman–Nicobar islandsregion. The deformation velocities indicate, extension of 0.83 ±0.05 mm/yr along N343^° and compression of 0.19 ±0.01 mm/yr along N73^° in the Andaman back arc spreadingregion, extension of 0.18 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N125^° andcompression of 0.16 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N35^° in NicobarDeep and west Andaman fault zone, compression of 0.84 ±0.12 mm/yr N341^° and extension of 0.77 ± 0.11 mm/yralong N72^° within the transverse tectonic zone in the Andamantrench, N-S compression of 3.19 ± 0.29 mm/yr and an E-Wextension of 1.24 ± 0.11 mm/yr in the Semangko fault zone ofnorth Sumatra. The vertical deformation suggests crustal thinning in theAndaman sea and crustal thickening in the fore arc and Semangko faultzones. The apparent stresses calculated for all major events range between0.1–10 bars and the values increase with increasing seismic moment.However, the apparent stress estimates neither indicate any significantvariation with faulting type nor display any variation across the arc, incontrast to the general observation that the fore arc thrust events showhigher stress levels in the shallow subduction zones. It is inferred that theoblique plate convergence, partial subduction of 90^°E Ridge innorth below the Andaman trench and the active back arc spreading are themain contributing factors for the observed stress field within the overridingplate in this region.     

基于高温高压岩石破裂实验结果对中强地震前震中附近区域部分地震学现象的初步解释

依据高温高压岩石破裂实验结果并结合理论分析，对 附近区域不同深度温压条件下岩石变形破坏性质及破坏失稳的力学行为进行了研究，在一次应力加载循环中，发生破坏的部位随时间具有向深部下迁的趋势。考虑到深度温压条件下岩石的渐进式破坏行为及突发失稳，对主震前震中附近区域小地震活动的增强、平静、活化等现象，以及b值等时间序列参数变化的可能机理进行初步探讨，并简单讨论了两类平静和两类b值变化的可能原因。     

Water wars in the Middle East: a looming threat

This paper explains how hydropolitical dynamics and spatial variables almost triggered a water war between Israel and Lebanon because the latter was building a pump on the Wazzani Spring, a tributary of the Jordan River. The convergence of a regional drought, history of violent confrontations between the two riparians, distrust, varying development needs and territorial disputes almost culminated in a war between these east Mediterranean neighbours. While most international water disputes in the Middle East will be resolved peacefully, some are likely to trigger violent confrontations threatening political stability in the Middle East in the next few decades.