一种基于二次灰关联分析的数列预测法

数列预测一直是评价决策中最常见而又信于把握的问题之一。本文在总结现有预测方法的基础上，结合前铛预报思想和灰色预测理论，依据数据求同原则，提出了运用二次灰关联分析，建立组合模型的预测方法，该方法易于计算机实现，并已实际应用于油气储量预测研究中。     

黑龙江省砂金指纹（化学成分）特征

对黑龙江省８４个砂金，７个岩金样品的化学成分进行了研究。通过Ｒ型聚类分析、探讨了不同元素之间相关性及其地质意义。通过Ｑ型聚类分析将所有样品进行分类，探讨了砂金样品与已知岩金样品之间的成因联系，并对砂金的可能原生金源的剥蚀程度进行了估计。     

小秦岭东闯金矿区花岗岩浆活动的性质

东闯金矿区中生开岩交活动的特征是小秦岭地区这一时期岩浆活动的缩影。从钾长花岗岩墙－文峪第一次侵入体－文峪第二次侵入体，岩石向相对基性度增高方向变化，可能暗示区域岩石圈的热－物质调整从印支期至燕山早期持续增强。     

内蒙古地区地震活动度S值特征分析

采用定量描述地震活动强弱程度的地震活动度方法，研究了内蒙古地区1970年以来中强地震的分布特征和活动规律，发现内蒙古地区S值存在5年周期的起伏活动规律。在分区研究区的基础上，内蒙古地区从西到东，地震活动度S值呈现有规律的强一弱交替特征。     

考虑渗流力时对太沙基一维固结理论的修正

考虑渗流力的作用，对太沙基一维固结理论进行了修正，给出了向上及向下渗流时固结度的表达式，并分析了固结过程中渗流应力的变化规律。结果表明：渗流力对固结度的影响较大，特别是在时间因素Tv=0.1附近，是否考虑渗流力的影响将导致固结度的差值达30 %，因而渗流力对固结度的影响是不可忽略的。     

Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.     

AHP及模糊综合评判法在路基长期稳定性评价中的应用

根据对一低液限粉土路基的现场工程地质调查及检测,确定了影响该路基长期稳定性的主要影响因素,并结合AHP法,应用两级模糊综合评判的方法对该路基的长期稳定性进行了评价。     

One-dimensional consolidation of soil under multistage load based on continuous drainage boundary

In engineering practice, a rapid loading rate can result in ground failure when the strength of soft soils is relatively low, and a multistage loading scheme is always utilized to deal with this situation. Firstly, under a multistage load and the continuous drainage boundary, an analytical solution of excess pore-water pressure and consolidation degree is obtained by virtue of the superposition formula of excess pore-water pressure, and a more general continuous drainage boundary under arbitrary time-dependent load is developed. Then, a comparison with existing analytical solutions is conducted to verify the present solution. A preliminary attempt on applying the continuous drainage boundary into the finite element model is made, and the feasibility of the numerical model for the one-dimensional consolidation under the continuous drainage boundary is verified by comparing the results calculated by FEM with that from present analytical solution. Finally, the consolidation behavior of soil is investigated in detail for different int erface parameters or loading scheme. The results show that, in land reclamation projects, a horizontal drain should be placed close to the boundary with a smaller interface parameter to improve the consolidation efficiency. The degree of consolidation is also related to the applied time-dependent load and interface parameters.     

雅安芦山4.20震后县级单元生态系统风险评价

区域生态风险评价是对各种生态风险及环境问题进行评价和管理的重要手段。针对雅安地震灾区特殊的自然地理及生态环境特征,选取芦山县为研究对象,采用遥感、GIS及SPSS统计分析的方法,通过风险源、风险受体、暴露和易损性分析,建立生态风险综合评价模型,划分生态风险区类型,进而提出生态风险管理对策。结果表明:1)微度和低度生态风险区集中分布在高海拔的森林及草地生态系统,该区生物多样性丰富,抗干扰能力较强,地质灾害及人类活动影响较小;2)中度和高度生态风险区具有沿农田及建设用地生态系统集聚分布的特征,该区地质灾害频繁,地壳活动性较强,生态系统抵抗灾害的能力较差。研究结果可为地震灾区防御、规避风险及安全选址提供科学依据。     

2000～2015年会理县地表覆盖变化监测

以LandSat多时相影像为数据源,采用基于规则的面向对象分类方法,监测会理县2000～ 2015年地表覆盖变化.结合1∶50 000 DEM数据,分析了会理县地表覆盖构成与转移、变化动态度及潜在退耕地情况.监测分析结论能为会理县加强空间管制、促进土地资源集约利用、指导生态文明建设等提供决策信息支撑.