基于多元线性回归分析的页岩气有利区评价新方法 ——以上扬子地区五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩为例

本文以四川盆地及其周缘五峰组—龙马溪组页岩气评价为例,总结了页岩气有利区优选的储层参数、保存参数和压力系数等参数,量化了各关键参数平面分布,运用多元线性回归分析方法计算了参数权重,通过多参数加权叠加公式建立了多元线性回归模型:有利区=-0.317+0.75×埋深+0.285×TOC+0.148×RO+0.093×孔隙度...     

山东半岛东北部海域悬浮体季节分布及控制因素

基于2018年山东半岛东北部海域冬、夏两季悬浮体浓度、浊度及水温和盐度调查资料,分析了研究区水体悬浮体浓度的季节性变化,探讨了其控制因素.结果表明:夏季浊度在0.2～37.8FTU之间变化,冬季浊度在1.5～100.1FTU之间变化,均表现为底高表低、东高西低的特征.夏季水温分层明显,表现为表层高、底层低的特征,盐度整...     

综合评价方法在水质评价应用中的比较研究

以黄河某取水口监测点19981999年的水质为评价对象,利用灰色关联分析法、模糊综合评价法和物元分析法分别进行了综合评价,结果表明,模糊综合评价和物元分析法的评价结果一致,"中心化"灰色关联法评价结果与上述两方法的评价结果一致.     

地震速度资料在北黄海盆地中的应用

概述了北黄海盆地的区域地质背景和速度分析的原理,通过对北黄海盆地速度谱的解释和计算,得到了层速度、平均速度、砂岩百分含量等信息,利用这些速度资料识别多次波、辨别坳陷区和隆起区,进行时深转换、构造分析以及岩性分析,为北黄海盆地地震资料解释、沉积相分析以及资源量计算提供可靠的依据。     

滇东断陷盆地南洞岩溶地下水系统地下河水文动态特征与资源量评价

本文对滇东断陷盆地南洞岩溶地下水系统各地下河的水文动态特征进行了分析,推断了南洞岩溶地下水系统的结构特征.根据岩性构造、地下河发育以及补径排关系,将其划分为四个子系统.分别采用降雨入渗系数法和径流模数法对南洞岩溶地下水系统的天然资源量进行计算,计算结果分别为35610.7万m3/a和33460.2万m3/a.用枯季径流...     

最优TS评分方法在逐时降水订正中的初步应用及评估

使用2020年3—9月逐时更新的CMA广东短临3 km数值模式(CMA-GD(R3)模式)1～12 h逐小时降水量资料,利用最优TS评分订正方法(OTS)对逐小时降水量进行分级订正,并分别从整体和分类型降水过程预报订正效果进行了检验和对比评估。结果表明：从整体预报订正性能来看,通过OTS方法对CMA-GD(R3)模式订正后,对于≥1 mm/h及以上量级的降水,OTS均有较好的订正能力,并且随着雨强的增加,其TS评分的改善比率越大;同时,OTS可有效减少各个预报时效的漏报率和空报率,其中漏报率减小更加明显,表现出明显的湿偏差(空报偏多)。从三类暴雨过程逐时降水预报订正效果来看,通过OTS订正之后,对于≥1 mm/h的降水,OTS对三类暴雨类型均有正的订正能力。其中在0.1 mm、1 mm、10 mm、20 mm、35 mm、50 mm 6个量级上,季风型的逐时降水预报表现最好,6个量级的TS评分值分别为0.403、0.232、0.053、0.023、0.009和0.004;在5 mm量级上锋面型的逐时降水预报表现最优,其TS值为0.102。从改善效果来看,经过OTS订正后,在1 mm量级...     

HRCLDAS-V1.0和ERA5海面风场对比评估分析

基于2020年中国近海31个浮标的逐小时数据,使用统计分析方法对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(HRCLDAS-V1.0)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第5代全球大气再分析数据(ERA5)海面风场进行了系统的检验,检验结果表明：两者在我国近海均具有较高的可信度,风速平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为1.16 m/s和1.09 m/s,风向MAE分别为23°和22°。随着风力增大两者的风速准确度均有所降低,当风力等级≥10级时,前者准确度优于后者;对于风向而言,随着风力增大,两者准确度均升高。此外,选取2020年典型的两次冷空气过程和2008号台风“巴威”过程,检验两者在不同天气过程影响下的准确度,两类融合产品均能较好地再现冷空气过程引起的风向变化,而对不同强度的冷空气过程下的风速反映存在差异;对于台风引起的大风,在风速较低时两者风速均具有不错的表现,但HRCLDAS-V1.0对峰值强度的表现优于ERA5。     

The penetration experiment to predict liquefaction resistance of reclaimed soils

The liquefaction resistance of the soils used to be estimated through the in situ tests, such as standard penetration test and cone penetration test; or by means of cyclic triaxial test in laboratory. However, both in situ tests and cyclic triaxial test are time-consuming and costly; this study introduces a quick and cost-effective method to evaluate the liquefaction resistance of soils under certain confining pressure in laboratory. A particular device modified from the conventional triaxial compression test apparatus, namely “Triaxial Cone Penetration Test”, was developed to obtain the peak values of cone resistance in soils so as to correlate the liquefaction resistance of the reclaimed soils evaluated by cyclic triaxial tests. The test result indicates a good correlation between the peak value of cone resistance and the corresponding cyclic stress ratio (CSR) at the state of initial liquefaction, in which the correlation for loose samples is better than that for dense samples. Besides, both peak values of cone resistance and corresponding CSR increase with fine content of soils reaches 10% and decreased with fine content varying between 10% and 50%. By examining the compositions of the soils with scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction, it is found that the proportion and characteristics of the fines plays an important role on the liquefaction resistance of the reclaimed soils.     

Revisiting Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) trophodynamics provides a new vision of the Humboldt Current system

The Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) forages on plankton and is a main prey for marine mammals, seabirds, fish, and fishers, and is therefore a key element of the food web in the Humboldt Current system (HCS). Here, we present results from the analysis of 21,203 anchoveta stomach contents sampled during 23 acoustic surveys over the period 1996–2003. Prey items were identified to the genus level, and the relative dietary importance of different prey was assessed by determination of their carbon content. Variability in stomach fullness was examined relative to the diel cycle, the distance from the coast, sea surface temperature, and latitude, using generalized additive models (GAMs). Whereas phytoplankton largely dominated anchoveta diets in terms of numerical abundance and comprised >99% of ingested prey items, the carbon content of prey items indicated that zooplankton was by far the most important dietary component, with euphausiids contributing 67.5% of dietary carbon followed by copepods (26.3%). Stomach fullness data showed that anchoveta feed mainly during daytime between 07h00 and 18h00, although night-time feeding also made a substantial contribution to total food consumption. Stomach fullness also varied with latitude, distance from the coast, and temperature, but with substantial variability indicating a high degree of plasticity in anchoveta feeding behaviour. The results suggest an ecological role for anchoveta that challenges current understanding of its position in the foodweb, the functioning of the HCS, and trophic models of the HCS.     

Water, organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus contents in sediment of a large-scale mariculture area in the Zhelin Bay of eastern Guangdong Province, China

The Zhelin Bay is one of the most important bays for large-scale mariculture in Guangdong Province, China. Owing to the increasing human population and the expanding mariculture in the last two decades, the ecological environment has greatly changed with frequent harmful algal blooms. A monthly survey of water content, organic matter （TOM）, and various forms of nitrogen and phosphorous in sediment from July 2002 to July 2003 in the bay was conducted. The results showed that the water content was correlated significantly with TOM and various forms of nitrogen and phosphorus and can be used as proxy for quick and rough estimate of these factors in the future surveys. TOM was also correlated significantly with various forms of nitrogen and phosphorus, indicating that it was one of the key factors affecting the concentrations and distributions of nitrogen and phosphorus in the investigated waters. Average total Kjeldhal nitrogen （TkN） content was（ 1 113.1 ± 382.5）μg/g and average total phosphorus （TP） content was（567.2± 223.3）μg/g, and both were much higher than those of similar estuaries in China and elsewhere. Average nitrogen and phosphorus tended to be higher inside than outside the bay, higher at aquaculture than non-aquaculture areas, and higher at fish-cage culture than oyster culture areas, suggesting that large-scale mariculture inside the bay played an important role in the eutrophication of the Zhelin Bay. Various forms of nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were higher during the warm season （July--September）, which was due to the increased decomposition and concentration of organic matter resulted from the fast growth and high mortality of the cultured species. Compared with July 2002, TkN and TP contents were much higher in July 2003, in consonance with the eutrophication of the Zhelin Bay. Because exchangeable phosphorus （Ex-P）, iron-bounded phos- phorus （Fe-P） and organic phosphorus （OP） combined accounted for 34.3% of the TP and authigenic phosphorus （Au-P