重庆市巫山县环湖路建设对淀粉厂滑坡影响的研究

重庆市巫山县环湖路地质条件十分复杂,沿线经过十几个地质灾害单元体。环湖路经过淀粉厂滑坡区时,以半挖半填的方式经过。环湖路建设对原滑坡体的稳定性影响进行重新评价计算,认为原设计方案不能满足要求,对原方案进行修改设计,完成淀粉厂滑坡的施工治理的环湖路的建设,实现了淀粉厂滑坡和环湖路工程建设的安全稳定。     

遥感物候学研究进展

植物物候现象是环境条件季节和年际变化最直观、最敏感的生物指示器,其发生时间可以反映陆地生态系统对气候变化的快速响应.近年来,遥感物候观测因其具有多时相、覆盖范围广、空间连续、时间序列较长等特点,已成为揭示植被动态对全球气候变化响应与反馈的重要手段.文章在介绍植物物候遥感监测的数据集及其预处理方法的基础上.从植物物候生长季节的划分、植物物候与气候变化、植物物候与净初级生产量、植物物候与土地覆盖、植物物候与农作物估产等方面系统阐述了近5年来国内外遥感物候学研究的重要进展,并针对目前研究中存在的问题,提出近期遥感物候研究的主要方向:(1)发展一种更具普适性的物候生长季节划分方法;(2)通过开展植物群落的物候观测和选择合适的尺度转换方法,统一地面与遥感的空间信息;(3)定量分析植物物候变化对人类活动的响应机制;(4)选择适宜的数学方法和模型,实现各种不同分辨率遥感数据的融合;(5)通过动态模拟,预测植物物候对未来气候变化的响应.     

Fuzzy process capability indices for quality control of irrigation water

Water covers over 70% of the Earth surface and is a very important resource to people and the environment. Water pollution affects drinking water, rivers, lakes and oceans all over the world. This consequently harms human health and the natural environment. Water pollution can also affect the crops. So, water pollution is an important issue for humanity. Therefore, the control of irrigation water is a necessity. In this paper, a methodology based on process capability indices (PCIs) has been presented to control the levels of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) in dam’s water for irrigation. Fuzzy PCIs have been proposed for this aim. The fuzzy estimates of $ \hat C_p Water covers over 70% of the Earth surface and is a very important resource to people and the environment. Water pollution affects drinking water, rivers, lakes and oceans all over the world. This consequently harms human health and the natural environment. Water pollution can also affect the crops. So, water pollution is an important issue for humanity. Therefore, the control of irrigation water is a necessity. In this paper, a methodology based on process capability indices (PCIs) has been presented to control the levels of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) in dam’s water for irrigation. Fuzzy PCIs have been proposed for this aim. The fuzzy estimates of and are obtained for pH, DO, and T based on Buckley’s interval estimation approach and based on fuzzy specification limits. An application has been made for Kesikk?prü Dam in Ankara, Turkey. In this paper, Buckley’s approach is re-arranged to obtain a triangular fuzzy membership function because it cannot be obtained from Buckley’s approach in some situation.     

An integrated model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides

This study proposes a novel method that combines a deterministic slope stability model and a statistical model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides. The method first uses the deterministic model to derive the rainfall rate critical to induce slope failure for each land unit. Then it calculates the difference between the critical rainfall threshold and estimated rainfall intensity. Using the difference and estimated rainfall duration as explanatory variables, the method derives a logit (integrated) model to compute landslide occurrence probabilities. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, the study used radar rainfall estimates and landslides associated with a typhoon (tropical cyclone) to develop the integrated model and the same types of data associated with another typhoon to validate the model. The model had a modified success rate of 84.0% for predicting landslides and stable areas, and model validation yielded a modified success rate of 87.4%. Both rates were better than those from the critical rainfall model. The main advantage of the integrated model lies in its use of rainfall variables that are not included in calculating the critical rainfall. Also, as a probabilistic model, the integrated model is better suited for decision-making in watershed management. This study has advanced the method for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.     

粗差验后方差的无偏估计与最优稳健估计

在正态粗差假设下导出了粗差验后方差的无偏估计,对误差工膨胀模型和误差均值移动模型,两者的无偏估计公式是相同的。这证明了李德仁验后方差的朱建军方差不是无偏的。由于偏方定义的彭方法是正态粗差假设下的最优稳健估计。     

瑞安市暴雨强度概率分布公式参数估计研究

该文根据瑞安市1965~1997年降水自记记录, 通过适当的概率模式对暴雨强度抽样频数分布进行拟合, 并由此编制反映暴雨强度、历时、重现期三者关系的i-t-T表.利用最优化法进行非线性超定方程组的求解, 从而实现对暴雨强度公式中参数的估计.     

贵州典型喀斯特县域生态环境脆弱度等级划分

以贵州省46个典型喀斯特县域作为研究对象,共选取5大类19项指标,通过层次分析法计算出各指标的相对权重,采用模糊综合评判方法对各县生态环境脆弱度进行计算和定量评价,并根据最大隶属原则把46个典型喀斯特县份分别划分于极度脆弱、强度脆弱、中度脆弱和轻度脆弱四种不同脆弱等级。计算结果表明,贵州喀斯特地区生态环境脆弱形势十分严重,在46个典型的喀斯特县份中,有31个县属于强度脆弱或极强脆弱,11个县属于中等脆弱,属于轻度脆弱的只有4个县。      

连续管疲劳寿命预测

连续管在拉伸力作用下易疲劳,影响使用寿命。在对其弯曲拉应力、径向应力、周向应力以及等效应力分析的基础上,建立了连续管疲劳寿命预测模型,并在预测计算的基础上,通过分析对比连续管内部液体压力、连续管外径、连续管壁厚、卷筒直径以及连续管抗拉强度等因素对连续管疲劳寿命的影响,提出了提高连续管使用寿命的实用方法。      

紫阳县城滑坡监测及变形规律分析

本文介绍了紫阳县城滑坡监测工作的技术方案及数据处理方法和结果。通过各种方案的对比分析．对监测网的各种技术方案的选取提供了依据．文中所提出的依据稳健估计原理、利用Ｓ变换解决参考基准的定位问题．是基准网非稳定情况下进行监测数据处理的成功方法，颇有借鉴意义。     

On the joint robust estimation of parameters and variance

A method of joint estimation of the parameters and the variance σ² in the linear model is presented in this paper. The M-estimators with finite rejection points are adopted for estimating the parameters. In order to estimate the variance σ², the Grubbs statistics and the Kurtosis test statistics are adopted to test the residual sequence {;r_i};. And the sample variance of {;r_i}; after discarding the outliers is taken as the estimation of σ². This method of estimating σ² is less computational demanding and more accurate, compared with the well-known method which takes 1.483 med_i |r_i| as the estimation of σ. The breakdown point of the above estimation of σ² is more than 20%, while the brekdown point is less than 10%, if only the Grubbs statistics is used.