塔里木盆地三大遗址群的兴衰与环境变化

塔里木盆地中的三大遗址群都经历了公元前的兴起、1～3世纪的兴盛和发展,以及7世纪的废弃。它们的兴衰变化具有一定的同步性。这意味着导致水资源条件变化的原因是共同的,即气候变化,而不是人为因素。     

Multiple solutions in preliminary orbit determination from three observations

Charlier’s theory (1910) provides a geometric interpretation of the occurrence of multiple solutions in Laplace’s method of preliminary orbit determination, assuming geocentric observations. We introduce a generalization of this theory allowing to take into account topocentric observations, that is observations made from the surface of the rotating Earth. The generalized theory works for both Laplace’s and Gauss’ methods. We also provide a geometric definition of a curve that generalizes Charlier’s limiting curve, separating regions with a different number of solutions. The results are generically different from Charlier’s: they may change according to the value of a parameter that depends on the observations.     

Seasonal use of coastal resources by otters: Comparing sandy and rocky stretches

Seasonal patterns of use of coastal resources by otters have been studied, simultaneously performing diet analyses and spraint counts (expressed as marking intensity, MI). In spite of the small size of the study area, two different sectors could be clearly identified, a sandy and a rocky one. The origin (freshwater or coastal) of most prey types could also be determined. Surveys were performed bimonthly and classified as autumn–winter (A–W) or spring–summer (S–S).In the sandy sector, eels, flatfish and grey mullets were more frequently consumed in A–W, while crayfish was more frequently consumed in S–S. None of the identified prey types in the rocky sectors showed different frequency of occurrence values between the two periods. In this sector otter fed mainly on coastal prey throughout the year, while in the sandy one there was a clear shift from coastal prey to freshwater ones in S–S. The decrease of coastal prey consumption in S–S in the sandy sector coincided with the lowest MI values, showing that in this period otters use coastal areas less intensely. Though shifts in otter diet and use of space in the sandy sector are probably influenced by the population dynamics of estuarine fish species and crayfish, the increased tourist disturbance during spring and summer in the sandy sector could be an important determinant of the observed patterns. Finally, the results show that MI can be used as a reliable measure of habitat use by otters, at least in small areas.     

海岸带石油污染物自然衰减研究综述

石油在海岸带泄漏后会形成长期危害生态环境的污染源区。在水动力、微生物和地球化学等的作用下,石油污染物的质量、浓度、体积、毒性和流动性降低的过程称为自然衰减。本文系统综述了海岸带石油污染物的自然衰减特征及其研究手段,阐明了石油性质、沉积物类型、水动力因素、光氧化反应和微生物等因素对海岸带石油污染源区自然衰减的影响,归纳总结了表征石油污染源区自然衰减过程的地球化学、地球生物和地球物理指标。同时,通过总结自然衰减过程的预测方法,指出了研究方向多学科交叉、多数据驱动的重点及难点,最后对海岸带石油污染源区自然衰减研究提出了展望。     

基于非等时距数据序列的高层建筑沉降预测

将泊松曲线引入到高层建筑的沉降预测分析中。采用牛顿插值平均法将非等时距数据转化成等时距数据,通过三段计算法求解模型系数,并结合高层建筑沉降监测工程实例计算分析,结果表明:泊松曲线预测与实际沉降数据吻合较好,拟合曲线精度较高,预测效果明显好于传统的双曲线法和指数曲线法,具有较高的实际应用价值。     

An analysis of change in alpine annual maximum discharges: implications for the selection of design discharges

The paper presents an analysis of 17 long annual maximum series (AMS) of flood flows for Swiss Alpine basins, aimed at checking the presence of changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima. We apply Pettitt's change point test, the nonparametric sign test and Sen's test on trends. We also apply a parametric goodness‐of‐fit test for assessing the suitability of distributions estimated on the basis of annual maxima collected up to a certain year for describing the frequency regime of later observations. For a number of series the tests yield consistent indications for significant changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima and increasing trends in the intensity of annual maximum discharges. In most cases, these changes cannot be explained by anthropogenic causes only (e.g. streamflow regulation, construction of dams). Instead, we observe a statistically significant relationship between the year of change and the elevation of the catchment outlet. This evidence is consistent with the findings of recent studies that explain increasing discharges in alpine catchments with an increase in the temperature controlling the portion of mountain catchments above the freezing point. Finally, we analyse the differences in return periods (RPs) estimated for a given flood flow on the basis of recent and past observations. For a large number of the study AMS, we observe that, on average, the 100‐year flood for past observations corresponds to a RP of approximately 10 to 30 years on the basis of more recent observation. From a complementary perspective, we also notice that estimated RP‐year flood (i.e. flood quantile (FQ) associated with RP) increases on average by approximately 20% for the study area, irrespectively of the RP. Practical implications of the observed changes are illustrated and discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations in mid-eastern provinces and cities of China

The studies on environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations are helpful to design and implement environmental protection countermeasures.In order to eliminate the adverse effects of insufficient observation values on the accuracy of regression results and dynamic information quantity of fitting equation during empirical study,panel data of the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China from 1985 to 2007 were selected based on the adjustment of classical regression model in this paper.Panel unit root test and panel cointegration analysis method were applied to investigating the environmental effects of foreign trade and its spatial variations in the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China and its three groups divided by foreign trade dependence.The results show that all scale effects are positive,while all technical effects are negative and unable to counteract positive scale effects.Foreign trade development is regarded as an important cause for outstanding eco-environmental problems in the mid-eastern provinces and cities of China.Total effects and structural effects are significantly different among different groups because of spatial variations in environmental policies,export destinations,source of FDI,etc.Following the principle of′coordinating generality and considering differences comprehensively′,it is essential to issue a series of policies and countermeasures corresponding to differences in regional environmental effect of foreign trade,in order to coordinate the relationship between foreign trade development and eco-environment in each region.     

9806号台风非对称结构形成及其高纬西折路径分析

对9806号台风在弱环境场中的向北移动，至强环境场中折向西行的物理机制进行了分析，得出在弱环境场中台风可形成不对称结构，其物理量如高度的变化在台风进入强环境场后与环境场叠加，从而改变台风移向，强弱环境场的更替，可能是9806号台风移向突变的重要原因。     

织金矿区龙潭组砂岩的粒度特征及其环境意义

论述了贵州省织金矿区龙潭组砂岩粒度特征,分析了矿区含煤地层的沉积环境.     

Spatial and temporal patterns in the hyperbenthic community structure in a warm temperate southern African permanently open estuary

The spatial and temporal patterns in the hyperbenthic community structure (>500 μm) in the warm temperate, permanently open Kariega Estuary situated along the south-eastern coastline of South Africa was investigated monthly over a period of twelve months. Data were collected using a modified hyperbenthic sledge at six stations along the length of the estuary. Physico-chemical data indicate the presence of a constant reverse salinity gradient, with highest salinities measured in the upper reaches and lowest at the mouth of the estuary. Strong seasonal patterns in temperature, dissolved oxygen and total chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration were evident. Total average hyperbenthic densities ranged between 0.4 and 166 ind.m⁻³ in the lower net and between 0.2 and 225 ind.m⁻³ in the upper net. Hyperbenthic biomass values ranged between 0.02 and 11.9 mg.dry weight.m⁻³ in the lower net and between 0.02 and 17.4 mg.dry weight.m⁻³ in the upper net. Both the lower and upper nets were numerically dominated by decapods (mainly brachyuran crab zoea) with the exception of June and July 2008 when mysids (mainly Mesopodopsis wooldridgei) dominated, comprising up to 72.4 ± 58.14% of the total abundance in the lower net. A redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that 99.2% of the variance in the hyperbenthic community structure could be explained by the first two canonical axes. Axis one, which accounted for 96.8% of the total variation detected in the ordination plot was highly correlated with sedimentary organic content and to a lesser extent the chl-a concentration within the Kariega Estuary. The correlations with the second canonical axis (2.4%) were less obvious, however, salinity and seston concentration were weakly correlated with this axis.