上海地区未来海平面上升及产生的可能影响

未来海平面变化,特别是由于地面沉降等引起的相对海平面上升,将对沿海地区的地质环境及人类的生存发展产生极大的影响,通过对影响上海地区海平面变化主要因素的概括,对未来的相对海平面变化作出了预测,对由海平面上升引起的环境效应作了阐述,提出了相应的防治对策。强调了控制上海地区的地面沉降,以减轻海平面上升所造成的危害,具有特殊而重要的意义。     

Laser Guide Star for 3.6- and 8-m telescopes: Performance and astrophysical implications

We have constructed an analytical model to simulate the behaviour of an adaptive optics system coupled with a sodium laser guide star. The code is applied to 3.6- and 8-m class telescopes. The results are given in terms of Strehl ratio and full width at half-maximum of the point spread function. Two atmospheric models are used, one representing good atmospheric conditions (20 per cent of the time), the other median conditions.   Sky coverage is computed for natural guide star and laser guide star systems, with two different methods. The first one is a statistical approach, using stellar densities to compute the probability of finding a nearby reference. The second is a cross-correlation of a science-object catalogue and the USNO catalogue. Results are given in terms of percentage of the sky that can be accessed with given performances, and in terms of the number of science objects that can be observed, with Strehls greater than 0.2 and 0.1 in the K and J bands.     

研究局部场地条件对地震动影响的响嘡遥测台阵

对原有的响嘡三维场地条件影响台阵进行了扩建改造。增设了一个深度为47m的测井,对钻孔土样进行了土动力学测试,弥补了缺乏详细土层特性资料的缺陷。新老测井观测点均架设了电话线路,实现了观测中心与台阵之间的远程监控和数据传输。已经获取的一批中小地震近场记录可以用来进行盲测研究。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Geography and the Third World. International Seminar, 14–18 May 1980, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia . Ishmail Ahmad and Jamaluddin Md Jahi, eds. The Growth Dilemma: Residents' Views and Local Population Change in the United States . Mark Baldassare. Sport and Place: A Geography of Sport in England, Scotland & Wales . John Bale. The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry . Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison. Selected Essays 1963–1975: Carl O. Sauer . Bob Callahen, ed. Housing and Planning in the Countryside . G. Clark. Conflict, Politics and the Urban Scene . Kevin R. Cox and R. J. Johnston, eds. Thematic Maps: Their Design and Production . David J. Cuff and Mark T. Mattson. Wine: A Geographic Appreciation . Harm Jan de Blij. USSR in Maps . J. C. Dewdney. Political Geography: A Contemporary Perspective . Ramesh D. Dikshit. Rethinking Human Adaptation . Rada Dyson-Hudson and Michael A. Little, eds. Sacred Sands: The Struggle for Community in the indiana Dunes . J. Ronald Engel. Geography of the Biosphere . A. Furley and Walter W. Newey. Disaster and Reconstruction . Robert Geipel. Glasgow: The Making of a City . Andrew Gibb. Design for Arid Regions . Giden S. Golany, ed. Urbanization and Cancer Mortality: The United States Experience, 1950–1975 . Michael R. Greenberg. Geology in the Nineteenth Century: Changing Views of a Changing World . Mott T. Greene. Colonización y Destrucción de Bosques en Panamá . Stanley Heckadon Moreno and Alberto McKay, eds. Urban Geography: A First Approach . David T. Herbert and Colin J. Thomas. The Visual and Spatial Structure of Landscapes . Tadahiko Higuchi. Climate from Tree Rings . M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher, and V. C. LaMarche, Jr., eds. The structure of Nineteenth Century Cities . James H. Johnson and Colin G. Pooley, eds. The American Planner: Biographies and Recollections . Donald A. Krueckeberg, ed. Urban Land Policy For the 1980s, the Message for State and Local Government . George Lefcoe, ed. Regional Planning: Evolution, Crisis and Prospects . Gill C. Lim, ed. Relevance and Ethics In Geography . Bruce Mitchell and Dianne Draper. China: The Geography of Development and Modernization . Clifton W. Pannell and Laurence J. C. MA. The Urban Retailing System . Robert B. Potter. Hants. Nonconventional Energy Resources . Philip R. Pryde. Caribbean Migrants: Environment and Human Survival on St. Kitts and Nevis . Bonham C. Richardson. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson. East Los Angeles: History of A Barrio . Ricardo Romo. Integrated Impact Assessment . Frederick A. Rossini and Alan L. Porter, eds. Environmental Aesthetics: Essays in Interpretation . Barry Sadler and Allen Carlson, eds. Earthwatch . Charles Sheffield. Field Techniques and Research Methods in Geography . Robert H. Stoddard. Haiti: Land of Poverty . Robert J. Tata. Weathering and Erosion: Sources and Methods in Geography . Stephen T. Trudgill. Once Beneath the Forest. Prehistoric Terracing in the Río Bec Region of the Maya Lowlands . B. L. Turner, II. The Historical Geography of Scotland since 1707 . David Turnock.     

Oscillations of levels and cool phases of the Laurentian Great Lakes caused by inflows from glacial Lakes Agassiz and Barlow-Ojibway

Two distinct episodes of increased water flux imposed on the Great Lakes system by discharge from upstream proglacial lakes during the period from about 11.5 to 8 ka resulted in expanded outflows, raised lake levels and associated climate changes. The interpretation of these major hydrological and climatic effects, previously unrecognized, is mainly based on the evidence of former shorelines, radiocarbon-dated shallow-water sediment sequences, paleohydraulic estimates of discharge, and pollen diagrams of vegetation change within the basins of the present Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Nipissing. The concept of inflow from glacial Lake Agassiz adjacent to the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet about 11–10 and 9.5–8.5 ka is generally supported, with inflow possibly augmented during the second period by backflooding of discharge from glacial Lake Barlow-Ojibway.Although greater dating control is needed, six distinct phases can be recognized which characterize the hydrological history of the Upper Great Lakes from about 12 to 5 ka; 1) an early ice-dammed Kirkfield phase until 11.0 ka which drained directly to Ontario basin; 2) an ice-dammed Main Algonquin phase (11.0–10.5 ka) of relatively colder surface temperature with an associated climate reversal caused by greater water flux from glacial Lake Agassiz; 3) a short Post Algonquin phase (about 10.5–10.1 ka) encompassing ice retreat and drawdown of Lake Algonquin; 4) an Ottawa-Marquette low phase (about 10.1–9.6 ka) characterized by drainage via the then isostatically depressed Mattawa-Ottawa Valley and by reduction in Agassiz inflow by the Marquette glacial advance in Superior basin; 5) a Mattawa phase of high and variable levels (about 9.6–8.3 ka) which induced a second climatic cooling in the Upper Great Lakes area. Lakes of the Mattawa phase were supported by large inflows from both Lakes Agassiz and Barlow-Ojibway and were controlled by hydraulic resistance at a common outlet — the Rankin Constriction in Ottawa Valley — with an estimated base-flow discharge in the order of 200000 m³s^–1. 6) Lakes of the Nipissing phase (about 8.3–4.7 ka) existed below the base elevation of the previous Lake Mattawa, were nourished by local precipitation and runoff only, and drained by the classic North Bay outlet to Ottawa Valley.Geological Survey of Canada Contribution 42488.This is the twelfth of a series of papers to be published by this journal that was presented in the paleolimnology sessions organized by R. B. Davis and H. Löffler for the XIIth Congress of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA), which took place in Ottawa, Canada in August 1987. Dr. Davis is serving as guest editor of this series.     

Mortality in England during the 1783–4 Laki Craters eruption

1783/4 has been recognised as a mortality crisis year in the population history of England. This demographic incident coincides with the Laki Craters eruption, Iceland, which began in June 1783 and fumigated many parts of Europe with volcanic gases and particles. Many reports and proxy climate records implicate the volcanic cloud in meteorological anomalies, including notably hot 1783 summer conditions in England and a severe subsequent winter. We present here a detailed analysis of the geographical and temporal trends in English mortality data, and interpret them in the light of the climatological records and observations of the pollutant cloud. We show that there were two distinct crisis periods: in August-September 1783, and January-February 1784, which together accounted for ~20,000 extra deaths. In both cases, the East of England was the worst affected region. Possible causes for the two crisis periods are considered and we conclude that the timing and magnitude of the winter mortality peak can be explained by the severe cold of January 1784. The late summer mortality followed 1–2 months after the very hot July of 1783 and may also have been related to the weather, with the time lag reflecting the relatively slow spread of enteric disease or the contraction of malaria. However, it is hard to explain the entire late summer anomaly by these high temperature causes. We therefore consider that fine acid aerosol and/or gases in the volcanic haze may also have contributed to the unusual August-September mortality. Given that complex radiative and dynamical effects of the volcanic cloud are implicated in the climatic anomalies in 1783–4, it is likely that the Laki Craters eruption did play a role in the English mortality crises of the same period.Editorial responsibility: R. Cioni     

An empirical attenuation relationship for Northwestern Turkey ground motion using a random effects approach

Using a random effects model that takes into consideration the correlation of data recorded by a single seismic event, a database consisting of 195 recordings from 17 recent events is employed to develop empirical attenuation relationships for the geometric mean of horizontal peak ground acceleration and 5-percent damped spectral acceleration (S_a). The recordings employed are obtained from strong motion stations operating in Northwestern Turkey and resulted from events that include the Kocaeli (M_w=7.4) and the Düzce (M_w=7.1) earthquakes and their aftershocks as well as other events. By studying differences in standard errors, the random effects model is compared with a fixed effects model that does not account for distinctions between intra- and inter-event variability. Effects of local site conditions are included in the empirical relationships developed. The dependence on frequency of the various model parameters is also studied. Frequency-dependent attenuation coefficients for the proposed random effects models developed are summarized in tables to facilitate their use.     

Secondary circulation induced by flow curvature and Coriolis effects around headlands and islands

Previous studies have shown that flow curvature in river bends generates a secondary circulation in the plane normal to the mean flow direction. A similar circulation pattern is shown to exist in oceanic situations when flows are subject to curvature, mainly due to interaction with topographic features. However, it is shown that, due to differences between oceanic conditions and river bends, theory and prediction methods based on the assumptions for river bends are invalid for oceanic flows. Via scaling arguments based on the equations of motion, that include both the effects of flow curvature and the Coriolis force, parameters that govern the different flow regimes are identified. The maximum strength of the secondary flow is derived for each flow regime and is verified using a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model applied to an idealized island. It is also shown that upwelling, due to the generation of secondary flow, occurs off the tips of the headland or island, and its influence can extend far downstream.Responsible Editor: Richard Signell     

Hydraulic properties and scale effects investigation in regional rock aquifers,south-western Quebec,Canada

This paper reports on the characterization of hydraulic properties of regional rock aquifers carried out within a groundwater resources assessment project in the St. Lawrence Lowlands of south-western Quebec. To understand the aquifer behavior at both the fracture level and at field scale, hydraulic investigations were carried out using various aquifer tests. The groundwater flow at the local scale is controlled mostly by the fracture system. Results of the constant-head injection tests show a weak decreasing trend of hydraulic conductivity with depth indicating that a major part of the groundwater flow occurs in the first meters of the rock sequence. At the regional scale, the equivalent porous media approach is applicable. The hydraulic conductivity measurements were correlated to the scale of the aquifer tests expressed with the investigated aquifer volume. A simple interpolation procedure for the hydraulic conductivity field was developed based on the distance between field measurements and the tested aquifer volumes. The regional distribution of the hydraulic conductivity for the major fractured aquifer units indicates that dolostone is the most permeable whereas sandstone and crystalline rocks are the least permeable units.

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Resumen Este artículo trata de la caracterización de las propiedades hidráulicas en acuíferos regionales rocosos, la cual se llevó a cabo dentro del proyecto de evaluación de los recursos de agua subterránea en St. Lawrence Lowlands al suroeste de Quebec. Para entender el comportamiento del acuífero tanto a nivel de fractura como a escala del campo, se ejecutaron investigaciones hidráulicas usando varias pruebas de acuífero. El flujo del agua subterránea a escala local está controlado principalmente por el sistema de fracturas. Los resultados de las pruebas de inyección con cabeza constante muestran una tendencia decreciente débil de la conductividad hidráulica con la profundidad, indicando que la mayor parte del flujo de agua subterránea sucede en los primeros metros de la secuencia rocosa. A escala regional se puede aplicar la aproximación equivalente de medios porosos. Las medidas de la conductividad hidrálica fueron comparadas con la escala de las pruebas del acuífero, expresadas con el volumen investigado del acuífero. Se desarrolló un proceso de interpolación simple para la conductividad hidráulica de campo, con base en la distancia entre las medidas de campo y los volúmenes probados del acuífero. La distribución regional de la conductividad hidráulica, para las unidades acuíferas fracturadas mayores, indica que la dolomita es más permeable mientras que la arenisca y las rocas cristalinas son las unidades menos permeables.

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Résumé Larticle présente les propriétés hydrauliques dun aquifère régional rocheux qui ont été mesurées dans le cadre dun projet concernant lestimation de la ressource en eau de la plaine de St. Lawrence située dans la partie sud-ouest de Quebec. Affin de comprendre le comportement de l› aquifère tant à l› échelle de fracture qu› à l› échelle régionale on a mené des investigations hydrauliques en utilisant des essais differents. À l› échelle locale lécoulement est déterminé en principal par le système des fractures. Les résultats des essais dinjection au niveau constant ont montré une tendence de décroissance de la conductivité hydraulique avec la profondeur ce qui indique que l› écoulement ait lieu en principal dans les premiers mètres de la structure rocheuse. À l› échelle règionale on peut appliquer lapproche de milieux poreux equivalent. Les mesures de conductivité hydraulique ont été corrélées avec l› échelle des essais de pompage exprimée en termes de volume investigué de l› aquifère. On a mis au point une méthode simple dinterpolation pour le champ de la conductivité hydraulique basée sur la distance entre les essais in situ et les volume investigués de l› aquifère. La distribution règionale de la conductivité hydraulique montre que pour la majorité des unités de roche fracturé les plus perméable sont les roches dolomitiques alors que les grés et les roches cristalines presentent la plus faible perméabilité.