Multi-step prediction of strong earthquake ground motions and seismic responses of SDOF systems based on EMD-ELM method

This paper proposes a new multi-step prediction method of EMD-ELM (empirical mode decomposition-extreme learning machine) to achieve the short-term prediction of strong earthquake ground motions. Firstly, the acceleration time histories of near-fault ground motions with nonstationary property are decomposed into several components of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different characteristic scales by the technique of EMD. Subsequently, the ELM method is utilized to predict the IMF components. Moreover, the predicted values of each IMF component are superimposed, and the short-term prediction of ground motions is attained with low error. The predicted results of near-fault acceleration records demonstrate that the EMD-ELM method can realize multi-step prediction of acceleration records with relatively high accuracy. Finally, the elastic and inelastic acceleration, velocity and displacement responses of single degree of freedom (SDOF) systems are also predicted with satisfactory accuracy by EMD-ELM method.     

海岸沙丘形态对台风响应的初步观测

基于2014年第10号强台风“麦德姆”登陆前后福建平潭岛海岸前丘、爬坡沙丘、横向沙丘和沙席等海岸沙丘形态的高精度测量数据,分析了典型海岸沙丘在台风登陆前后的形态变化,初步总结了华南海岸风沙地貌形态的台风响应模式。结果表明：4类典型海岸沙丘在台风“麦德姆”登陆前后的形态变化较大且主要是以体积减小和沙丘高度降低为主,测点高程的平均变化值为0.22 m,样区海岸沙丘体积平均减小0.59%,测点高程变化的平均值为高度降低0.05 m,但不同类型海岸沙丘及其不同部位的响应变化并非一致且存在较大差异,此与台风“麦德姆”的强侵蚀力及不同海岸沙丘的形态及其下伏地形、表面植被分布等的差异有关。     

全国地震应急视频会议系统建设及应用

地震应急体系随着国家"十五"重大项目"中国数字地震观测网络"项目的验收初步确立,应急指挥系统建设逐步完善,视频会议系统在地震应急响应中发挥了日益重要的作用。本文简要介绍了视频会议系统的基本组成和关键技术,详细阐述了全国地震应急视频会议系统的网络拓扑结构、主要功能以及在地震应急中的实际应用情况。本文对将来地震应急视频会议应用模式的流程化、规范化有一定实际意义。     

陆面过程对全球变暖的响应及可能机制—基于CMIP3的多模式集合分析

利用“国际耦合模式比较计划” (Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP3) 12个模式对20世纪 (The Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models, 20C3M) 和21世纪SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B 情景下的模拟结果, 通过21世纪 (2001～2099年) 与20世纪 (1901～1999年) 陆面能量和水文变量的对比分析, 揭示了陆面过程对全球变暖响应的基本特征, 并探讨了其可能的响应机制。结果表明, 与20世纪相比, 21世纪全球陆面平均的表面温度、 地表净辐射、 潜热通量明显增加; 而感热通量有所减小。降水、 径流、 蒸发等地表水循环分量也表现出不同程度的增加, 而土壤含水量有减小趋势。通过分析近地层主要大气强迫变量与陆面变量之间的联系, 发现陆面能量平衡过程对全球变暖的响应主要受向下长波辐射和气温变化的影响, 而温度的变化对陆面水文过程的影响起决定性的作用。进一步分析表明, 陆面过程对全球变暖的响应存在明显的区域性差异, 陆面温度和感热对全球变暖响应最显著的区域位于北半球中高纬, 而净辐射和潜热对全球变暖的响应在亚洲中部和非洲大陆最显著。相对于20世纪, 21世纪主要是长波辐射和温度对陆面能量平衡过程的贡献重要。对于陆面水文过程, 径流和土壤含水量对全球变暖的响应在亚洲中部以及北美最显著。在全球变暖背景下, 21世纪相对于20世纪, 温度对陆面水循环的影响更加显著, 主要体现在北半球中纬度地区。     

基于避难场所容量限制的地震应急疏散路径分析

针对地震灾害应急疏散策略,构建了一种基于避难场所容量限制的灾民应急疏散分配与路径选择算法模型。该模型综合考虑了避难场所的容量受限性和人口分布的不均匀性,在兼顾避难场所容量限制的同时,使灾民的总疏散距离成本最小化。以北京市东西城为例,对给定情景下的灾民应急疏散路径进行了实证研究。研究发现,在考虑避难容量限制的情形下,无论是地震初期,还是地震中后期,研究区域内现有应急避难场所的容量都不足以满足区域居民的避难需求。基于实际道路疏散成本和避难容量限制的灾区应急疏散路径评估模型,不仅能够给出各疏散需求点最佳的疏散目的地和具体路径,还能给出避难容量限制下各需求点疏散到不同目的地的人数,以及无法满足避难需求的居民数量。     

基于ISM的公路突发地质灾害应急机制构建

公路突发地质灾害应急机制是保障人民生命财产安全和降低灾害破坏程度的有效手段,为了科学、合理地构建公路突发地质灾害应急机制,运用系统工程理论,采用结构解释模型(ISM)方法确认并分析了应急机制构成的主要要素及其相互影响关系,建立了多层递阶解释结构模型。应用该模型,对应急机制体系进行了分析,将相关要素进行了分级,并分析了要素之间的纵向和横向关系。构成公路突发地质灾害应急机制的8个要素被划分成5个层次。应急预案是应急机制构建的综合成果,对减灾和防止次生灾害的发生起着直接的作用;而应急预案能否发挥其应有的作用,还受到后勤保障和实施速度的影响;会商机制可以有效的保证后勤保障和实施速度;险情监测、安全隐患检查、灾害调查又为会商的顺利进行提供了大量的资料和数据;而信息机制又是这些要素的基础。要素间的相互关系被清晰的揭示,为公路应急机制体系的建设和完善提供了科学依据。     

SEISMIC INTENSITY EVALUATION MODEL IN MEIZOSEISMAL AREA BASED ON FOCAL DEPTH

China is the country with the challenge of severe earthquake disaster. In order to mitigate the disaster and save lives, emergency response and rescue work after an earthquake are deployed and led by the Chinese governments at all level, the effectiveness of which has been proved. In such work, how to quickly evaluate the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is a crucial issue at the early period after the earthquake. It is the foundation to estimate the disaster losses and decide the scale of rescue teams and materials. However, at the early period only a few physical parameters of the earthquake can be acquired and some of them may even be inaccurate. An evaluation model of seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is investigated and presented by statistic method in this study. After an earthquake there are four authoritative parameters officially released by China Earthquake Administration generally within ten minutes:earthquake magnitude (M_S), focal depth, latitude and longitude position, and the occurrence time. They are good candidate input parameters of the evaluation model. We collect the information of 215 historical earthquake occurring in China from 1966 to 2013, including:The four parameters and the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area. Through statistical analysis we find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area has high correlation with the earthquake magnitude (M_S) and the focal depth and then select them as the formal input parameters. After further investigation a generalized linear model is built to fit the relationship between the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area, earthquake magnitude (M_S) and the focal depth. The effectiveness of the model is validated by the Sig value and F value from theoretic perspective. The validation also includes the application of the model in real earthquakes occurring from 2014 to 2017. After the earthquakes, the seismic intensities in meizoseismal area have been quickly estimated and used in the command of national earthquake disaster emergency relief. The applications in real earthquakes get good results. Finally, the robustness of the model is analyzed. We respectively verify the influences of the earthquake magnitude (M_S) and the focal depth and find the seismic intensity in meizoseismal area is more sensitive to the earthquake magnitude. Under the condition of the same focal depth, when the change of the earthquake magnitude is up to 0.5, the change of the seismic intensity will reach to 1. However, in order to cause same change of the seismic intensity, the difference of the focal depth will be 10 kilometers. Basically, these changes derived from the model meet the situation of historical earthquakes.     

强震动记录数据格式研究

强震动记录数据是构建震害防御体系的重要数据基础,又是应急救援体系的重要参数指标。当今互联网技术及数据库技术的飞速发展,对数据共享及数据应用提供了必要条件,掌握多种强震动记数据格式是上述工作的良好基础。本文着重研究国内外5种主流的强震动记录数据格式(美国USGS格式、日本K-NET格式、美国PEER格式、土耳其格式、中国UA格式),针对目前地震应急需求,提出中国强震动记录数据格式发展建议。     

自承载式预应力锚索现场试验研究

自承载式预应力锚索是一种不需要注浆即可进行张拉锁定的拉压复合型预应力锚索,适合于滑坡灾害应急抢险的快速锚固工程施工。本文结合现场试验数据,分析了自承载式预应力锚索的张拉力、锚索应力分布规律,并与普通拉力集中型锚索进行对比,阐明自承载式预应力锚索不仅有不注浆即可张拉发挥快速锚固作用的特点,同时自承载式预应力锚索锚固段的应力分布均匀,能充分发挥锚固段全长的锚固作用。     

基于泛在网信息的城市应急疏散决策研究

实时动态信息对城市应急疏散决策有着至关重要的意义,泛在网的发展使得获取城市实时动态信息变成现实.文中在分析城市应急疏散决策与泛在网特点的基础上,提出基于泛在网信息的城市应急疏散决策,设计基于泛在网的城市应急疏散决策概念模型,模型包含泛在感知层、泛在网络层、数据处理层、应用模型层、决策应用层.