全球2℃温升碳约束下中国煤电搁浅资产研究

作为全球煤电装机规模最大且仍在扩张的国家,中国需要慎重评估兑现《巴黎协定》温室气体减排承诺带来的潜在煤电资产搁浅问题.研究运用"上下交互"的碳锁定曲线模型,识别不同产能扩张情景下(无新增、新增200、300和400 GW)的搁浅煤电机组.首先,从"自上而下"角度匡算中国煤电行业2℃温升目标下的碳配额.然后,从"自下而上...     

不同闪电跃增算法在北京地区应用效果对比

基于S波段多普勒天气雷达基数据、北京闪电定位网全闪定位数据和北京地区降雹的人工观测结果,对比分析Gatlin和σ两种闪电跃增算法在不同配置下对北京地区2015—2018年共177次冰雹天气过程的预警效果。结果表明：不同倍数的σ算法预警结果差别很大,2σ（要求当前闪电频数变化率超过之前平均闪电频数变化率两倍标准差）在σ算法中的预警效果最佳;不同N（总闪频数变化率的数量）配置下的Gatlin算法的预警结果差别不大,其中当N=6时的预警效果最佳。2σ算法的命中率、虚警率和临界成功指数分别为80.2%,41.6%和51.1%,N=6的Gatlin算法的相应结果分别为82.5%,62.0%和35.2%。另外,详细分析了一次多单体雷暴过程和一次飑线过程中两种算法的应用情况,结果也表明Gatlin算法比2σ算法的命中率略高,但虚警率偏高很多,临界成功指数偏低。综合Gatlin算法和σ算法对冰雹预报结果评估情况,发现2σ闪电跃增算法更适于对北京冰雹天气的预警,对提升闪电数据在北京地区冰雹预报业务的可用度有一定参考价值。     

GRIB2介绍及解码初探

由于气象数据种类不断增多,对数量和质量的要求越来越高,而字符编码的局限性使得字符编码不能很好地满足这样的需求。WMO建议逐渐由字符编码向表格驱动码过渡。该文介绍了表格驱动码中的一种,即二进制格点加工数据(GRIB码)。首先介绍GRIB码的第1个版本(GRIB1)的编码格式,使用的模板技术及GRIB1目前在使用过程中的一些缺陷。然后着重分析了GRIB码的第2个版本(GRIB2)新的编码格式和特点,以及GRIB2在表示丰富的数据方面的优越性,最后对GRIB2解码过程中需要注意的一些问题进行了阐述。     

一次新型液态CO2播撒效果的数值模拟

利用三维积层混合云人工增雨数值模式对2002年7月11日的一次天气过程进行了由播撒液态CO2引起的微物理量变化及云动力影响的数值模拟。结果表明:播撒后,云中最大上升气流速度增大,由未播撒时的0.37 m/s增大到播撒后的0.54 m/s,播撒使云中出现最大上升速度W的时间比未播撒提前了4 min,表明播撒液态CO2影响了云的动力过程。同时与未播撒相比:云中雨水含量最大值由1.04 g/kg增加到1.40 g/kg;冰粒子含水量的出现提前了88 min,最大值的出现提前了76min;冰粒子浓度的出现提前了72 min,最大值的出现提前了72 min;雪粒子含水量的出现提前了72 min,最大值的出现提前了128 min;云水含量最大值由1.21 g/kg减小到0.87 g/kg。证明了播撒液态CO2后可影响云的微物理过程,从而导致地面降水的增加。     

273.15K下LiCl-Li2B4O7-H2O体系热力学性质的等压研究

用等压法研究了273 15K下LiCl-Li2B4O7-H2O体系中纯盐水溶液(离子强度范围为LiCl0 2046～2 5055mol·kg-1,Li2B4O70 1295～0 3700mol·kg-1)以及混合盐水溶液(离子强度范围为0 0931～2 4911mol·kg-1)渗透系数和水活度;计算了LiCl-Li2B4O7-H2O体系的饱和蒸汽压,获得饱和蒸汽压、渗透系数随离子强度的变化规律。用实验数据以最小二乘法求取了LiCl和Li2B4O7纯盐参数及体系的混合盐参数,拟合的标准偏差分别为0 0077和0 026。用该模型计算的渗透系数值与实验结果取得合理的一致。同时研究结果与273 15K下LiCl-Li2SO4-H2O体系的渗透系数随离子强度变化的规律作了比较。本研究对完善低温下含锂、硼盐湖卤水体系的热力学模型和盐湖资源的综合开发利用具有重要意义。     

Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

Simulation Chamber Studies of the Atmospheric Oxidation of 2-Methyl-3-Buten-2-ol: Reaction with Hydroxyl Radicals and Ozone Under a Variety of Conditions

This article presents a complete study of the diurnal chemical reactivity of the biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC), 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO) in the troposphere. Reactions of MBO with OH and with ozone were studied to analyse the respective parts of both processes in the global budget of MBO atmospheric reactivity. They were investigated under controlled conditions for pressure (atmospheric pressure) and temperature (298 ± 2 K) using three complementary European simulation chambers. Reaction with OH radicals was studied in the presence of and in the absence of NO _x . The kinetic study was carried out by relative rate study using isoprene as a reference. The rate constant found for this reaction was molecule⁻¹ cm³ s⁻¹. FTIR spectroscopy, DNPH- and PFBHA-derivatisation analyses were performed for reactions with both OH radicals and ozone. In both reactions, the hydroxycarbonyl compound, 2-hydroxy-2-methylpropanal (HMPr) was positively identified and quantified, with a yield of in the reaction with OH, and a yield of and 0.84 ± 0.08 in the reaction with ozone under dry (HR < 1%) and humid conditions (HR = 20%–30%). A primary production of two other carbonyl compounds, acetone , and formaldehyde was found in the case of the dry ozonolysis experiments. Under humid conditions, only formaldehyde was co-produced with HMPr as a primary carbonyl compound, with a yield of . For the reaction with OH, three other carbonyl compounds were detected, acetone , formaldehyde and glycolaldehyde . In addition some realistic photo-oxidation experiments were performed to understand in an overall way the transformations of MBO in the atmosphere. The realistic photo-oxidation experiments were conducted in the EUPHORE outdoor simulation chamber. It was found that this compound is a weak secondary aerosol producer (less than 1% of the carbon balance). But it was confirmed that it is a potentially significant source of acetone, Δ[Acetone]/Δ[MBO] = 0.45. With our experimental conditions ([MBO]₀ = 200 ppb, [NO]o = 50 ppb), an ozone yield of Δ[O₃]/Δ[MBO] = 1.05 was found.     

Measurements of stable carbon isotopic composition of ethane and propane over the western North Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean: A useful indicator of atmospheric transport process

Stable carbon isotopic composition of ethane and propane over the western North Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean between 31°N and 26°S was investigated from February through March 2004. The isotopic composition of ethane ranged from −28 to −18‰ and showed a gradual increase from north to south. Conversely, that of propane was between −31 and −24‰; it showed no systematic latitudinal variation. Investigation of the ethane/propane ratio indicates that ethane and propane that originated from northern mid-latitude countries in the eastern part of Eurasia were both transported into the western North Pacific region. However, the results of the isotopic analyses indicate the contribution of oceanic emission to the atmospheric propane during transport, although that contribution can not be discerned for ethane. A ship based stationary observation conducted in the western equatorial North Pacific showed that the isotopic composition of ethane varied from −25 to −19‰ and showed clear systematic diurnal variation: propane ranged between −32 to −26‰ and no such isotopic diurnal signal was observed. The diurnal variation for ethane is explained by entrainment of free tropospheric air, whereas the variation for propane was influenced by oceanic emissions as well as the entrainment. The contribution of oceanic emissions to the atmospheric propane inventory was considered from our isotopic observation. Isotopic composition of dissolved propane is estimated to be less than −38‰, and the contribution up to 79% was calculated when the isotopic composition of dissolved propane is assumed to be −40‰. Our study demonstrates that isotopic analysis can be more useful than ratio-based analysis to improve our present understanding of transport processes, especially for impact of the oceanic emissions on the atmospheric distribution of low level C₂–C₅ non-methane hydrocarbons such as propane in the remote marine atmosphere.     

Influence of leaf water potential on diurnal changes in CO2 and water vapour fluxes

Mass and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and vegetation are driven by meteorological variables, and controlled by plant water status, which may change more markedly diurnally than soil water. We tested the hypothesis that integration of dynamic changes in leaf water potential may improve the simulation of CO₂ and water fluxes over a wheat canopy. Simulation of leaf water potential was integrated into a comprehensive model (the ChinaAgrosys) of heat, water and CO₂ fluxes and crop growth. Photosynthesis from individual leaves was integrated to the canopy by taking into consideration the attenuation of radiation when penetrating the canopy. Transpiration was calculated with the Shuttleworth-Wallace model in which canopy resistance was taken as a link between energy balance and physiological regulation. A revised version of the Ball-Woodrow-Berry stomatal model was applied to produce a new canopy resistance model, which was validated against measured CO₂ and water vapour fluxes over winter wheat fields in Yucheng (36°57′ N, 116°36′ E, 28 m above sea level) in the North China Plain during 1997, 2001 and 2004. Leaf water potential played an important role in causing stomatal conductance to fall at midday, which caused diurnal changes in photosynthesis and transpiration. Changes in soil water potential were less important. Inclusion of the dynamics of leaf water potential can improve the precision of the simulation of CO₂ and water vapour fluxes, especially in the afternoon under water stress conditions.     

华东稻麦轮作农田CH4、N2O和NO排放特征

利用同步自动观测系统对华东稻麦轮作农田的CH4、N2O和NO排放进行了长期连续观测,分析了这3种气体排放的季节特征及决定因素,结果表明,华东稻麦轮作农田的CH4、N2O和NO排放具有完全不同的季节变化形式。CH4的排放发生在水稻生长期,其他阶段排放不明显,土壤水分状况是决定整个轮作周期内CH4排放变化的主要因素。N2O排放具有"冬季无,水田少,旱地多"的季节变化特点,尤其以旱地阶段的排放为主,土壤水分状况和温度共同决定着N2O排放的季节变化形式。NO排放具有"冬季无,水田很少,春季旱地多于秋季旱地"的季节分布特点,轮作周期内97.3%±0.6%的NO排放都发生在除冬季以外的旱地阶段,NO排放的季节变化形式由土壤水分状况和温度共同决定。大多数情况下稻田CH4和N2O排放呈互为消长的关系,但在烤田期间,二者却有时甚至同时出现高排放。在N2O日平均排放通量小于5 mg.m-2.h-1时,稻麦轮作农田的N2O和NO排放呈明显的互为消长关系,但大于5 mg.m-2.h-1时,N2O排放很强,同时NO排放也很强。