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181.
Assessing hydrological model predictive uncertainty using stochastically generated geological models
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In distributed and coupled surface water–groundwater modelling, the uncertainty from the geological structure is unaccounted for if only one deterministic geological model is used. In the present study, the geological structural uncertainty is represented by multiple, stochastically generated geological models, which are used to develop hydrological model ensembles for the Norsminde catchment in Denmark. The geological models have been constructed using two types of field data, airborne geophysical data and borehole well log data. The use of airborne geophysical data in constructing stochastic geological models and followed by the application of such models to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty for both surface water and groundwater have not been previously studied. The results show that the hydrological ensemble based on geophysical data has a lower level of simulation uncertainty, but the ensemble based on borehole data is able to encapsulate more observation points for stream discharge simulation. The groundwater simulations are in general more sensitive to the changes in the geological structure than the stream discharge simulations, and in the deeper groundwater layers, there are larger variations between simulations within an ensemble than in the upper layers. The relationship between hydrological prediction uncertainties measured as the spread within the hydrological ensembles and the spatial aggregation scale of simulation results has been analysed using a representative elementary scale concept. The results show a clear increase of prediction uncertainty as the spatial scale decreases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Although temporal variation in headwater stream chemistry has long been used to document baseline conditions and response to environmental drivers, less attention is paid to fine scale spatial variations that could yield clues to processes controlling stream water sources. We documented spatial and temporal variation in water composition in a headwater catchment (41 ha) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, USA. We sampled every 50 m along an ephemeral to perennial stream network as well as groundwater from seeps and 35 shallow wells across varying flow conditions. Groundwater influences on surface water in this region have not been considered to be important in past studies as relatively coarse soils were assumed to be well drained in steep catchments with flashy runoff response. However, seeps displayed perennial discharge, upslope accumulated areas (UAA) smaller than those for channel initiation sites and higher pH, Ca and Si concentrations than streams, suggesting relatively long groundwater residence time or long subsurface flow paths not bound by topographic divides. Coupled with a large range in groundwater chemistry seen in wells, these results suggest stream chemistry variation reflects the range of connectivity with, and quality of, groundwater controlled by hillslope hydropedological processes. The magnitude of variations of solute concentrations seen in the first order catchment was as broad as that seen at the fifth order Hubbard Brook Valley (3519 ha). Reduction in variation in solute concentrations with increasing UAA suggested a representative elementary area (REA) value of less than 3 ha in the first order catchment, compared with 100 ha for the fifth order basin. Thus, the REA is not necessarily an elementary catchment property. Rather, the partitioning of variation between highly variable upstream sources and relatively homogenous downstream characteristics may have different physical significance depending on the scale and complexity of the catchment under examination. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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珠江口盆地深水扇的发现为中国油气勘探中的重大突破,并以其宏大的规模、典型的结构及巨大的勘探前景引起国内外的关注。在区域地质背景研究基础上,通过白云凹陷X-1气田岩石学特征、地球化学特征和地球物理特征研究,识别出该盆地内深水扇沉积体,将深水扇划分为内扇、中扇和外扇三个亚相和水道颗粒流、碎屑流、水道间、近源和远源浊流等微相。对各微相作了较为详细的描述,结果表明水道砂质碎屑流微相是最有利于优质储集砂体发育的沉积微相。在此基础上提出深水扇理想沉积模式。 相似文献
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新疆柯坪二叠纪层状玄武岩的发育特征及其地质意义 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
通过野外实地测量和遥感影像识别,并对不同剖面的发育状况进行了对比。新疆柯坪地区发育的二叠纪玄武岩共可分为8层,包括库普库兹曼组2层和开派兹雷克组6层。多层玄武岩是多期喷发作用的结果,每次喷发可以来自不同的岩浆房或火山通道,但岩浆源区基本一致。每期喷发作用都具有一定的序列,先是稳定的熔岩流,发育柱状节理,往上则为致密块状玄武岩,在喷发末期发育火山角砾岩或凝灰岩。多期玄武岩浆喷发作用,指示了该区二叠纪玄武岩的岩浆房经历了"积聚—喷发—再积聚—再喷发"的过程,而熔融岩浆的源区则经历了不断"部分熔融"和"岩浆抽提"的过程。 相似文献
187.
Interpretation of the global anisotropy in the radio polarizations of cosmologically distant sources
We present a detailed statistical study of the observed anisotropy in radio polarizations from distant extragalactic objects.
This anisotropy was earlier found by Birch (1982) and reconfirmed by Jain and Ralston (1999) in a larger data set. A very
strong signal was seen after imposing the cut
, whereRM is the rotation measure and
its mean value. In this paper, we show that there are several indications that this anisotropy cannot be attributed to bias
in the data. We also find that a generalized statistic shows a very strong signal in the entire data without imposing theRM dependent cut. Finally we argue that an anisotropic background pseudoscalar field can explain the observations. 相似文献
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