浙江省梅汛期洪涝灾情分析和预测

通过所构设的雨涝强度、雨涝影响面积等统计量来估计灾情，有较高的正确率，能估计出极端情况，为灾害评估工作提供了新的思路。     

气汞的第一个同震效应记录

利用杭州超距科技有限公司最近研发的ATG-6138型测汞仪在云南省弥勒井气汞（Hg）观测中记录到尼泊尔8.1级地震的同震效应。这是我国气汞观测的第一个同震效应的纪录。这一事实表明了进一步提升地震地下流体化学量观测仪器的观测精度与采样率,有可能记录到固体潮与同震效应等更多的地壳动力作用信息,从而进一步提升其地震前兆监测能力。     

基于二次场的可控源电磁法三维有限元-无限元数值模拟

本文提出了一种新的混合有限元-无限元三维可控源电磁法(CSEM)问题快速高精度正演模拟算法.首先从电场双旋度方程出发,推导了水平电偶极子源的二次场边值问题,采用无限元代替截断边界条件和有限元离散内部计算区域的新策略,达到减小计算区域的目的,基于并行直接求解技术,实现多源CSEM问题的快速精确求解.其次,通过层状解析模型测试,一方面验证了新算法的正确性,另一方面通过与其他三种已知CSEM问题求解策略进行对比,表明了本文提出的基于二次场有限元-无限元算法具有离散区域小、求解速度快和计算精度高等优点.最后,通过3D模型计算,清晰直观地模拟了场源阴影效应,为野外数据的处理与解释提供指导.     

东北冷涡对海河流域初夏降水异常的影响

东北冷涡是东亚中高纬度地区的重要天气系统,其频繁活动可能导致显著的气候效应,不仅对东北局地,而且对海河流域地区初夏降水产生影响.本文利用海河流域34个地面气象台站逐日降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对东北冷涡与海河流域初夏降水的关系进行研究,结果表明:初夏东北冷涡活动与海河流域降水存在显著的相关关系,对其空间分布亦有重要影响.当东北冷涡活动偏多(少)时,海河流域北部地区(尤其是海河下游)初夏降水可能偏多(少),对应时间系数为正(负)时海河流域初夏降水EOF第二模态北多(少)南少(多)的空间分布.在东北冷涡活动偏多年,东北冷涡引导北方"干冷"空气南下推进至海河流域北部,伴随该地区源自西风带水汽输送和水汽辐合的增强,形成了"上干下湿"的不稳定层结,在上升运动的触发下,导致海河流域北部初夏降水偏多;而东北冷涡活动偏少年情况正好相反.东北冷涡活动为海河流域尤其是海河下游地区初夏降水预测提供了具有参考意义的结果,其活动指数与海河下游初夏降水距平的符号一致率在近30年高达83%.     

场地效应研究的传递台站线性反演法——以芦山地震为例

采用线性反演法研究了地震动的场地效应,并针对线性反演法的局限性,提出了"传递台站"的方法来扩展其应用.通过传递台站,地震事件不再局限于必须被参考台记录到,台站也不再局限于须与参考台站同时获取到地震记录,改进后可大大增加数据样本,使得结果更趋稳定.同时,对于原来难以参与分析的台站,也可得到其场地反应.研究中,还采用了基于遗传算法的非参考台方法,进一步分析了场地反应和验证所提方法的合理性.将所提方法应用于2013年芦山7.0级地震周边区域,分析了这一地区的强震台站的场地反应和地震波衰减因子Q_s值.研究结果显示,当采用一个和二个传递台站进行分析时,所能利用的地震事件和所能求解场地反应的台站数目逐步增加,随着数据样本的增加,分析结果趋于稳定.研究区域的Q_s值拟合结果为Q_s(f)=334.16f~(0.73).遗传算法结果表明,线性反演法中所选取的参考台站有其自身的场地反应.当利用遗传算法获得的参考场的场地反应去校正线性反演法的结果时,对于多数场地,两者的结果符合得很好,说明了遗传算法的结果可以合理地认为是场地较为真实的反应.     

An evaluation of the Arctic clouds and surface radiative fluxes in CMIP6 models

To assess the performances of state-of-the-art global climate models on simulating the Arctic clouds and surface radiation balance, the 2001–2014 Arctic Basin surface radiation budget, clouds, and the cloud radiative effects(CREs) in 22 coupled model intercomparison project 6(CMIP6) models are evaluated against satellite observations. For the results from CMIP6 multi-model mean, cloud fraction(CF) peaks in autumn and is lowest in winter and spring, consistent with that from three satellite observation products(Cloud Sat-CALIPSO, CERESMODIS, and APP-x). Simulated CF also shows consistent spatial patterns with those in observations. However,almost all models overestimate the CF amount throughout the year when compared to CERES-MODIS and APP-x.On average, clouds warm the surface of the Arctic Basin mainly via the longwave(LW) radiation cloud warming effect in winter. Simulated surface energy loss of LW is less than that in CERES-EBAF observation, while the net surface shortwave(SW) flux is underestimated. The biases may result from the stronger cloud LW warming effect and SW cooling effect from the overestimated CF by the models. These two biases compensate each other,yielding similar net surface radiation flux between model output(3.0 W/m~2) and CERES-EBAF observation(6.1 W/m~2). During 2001–2014, significant increasing trend of spring CF is found in the multi-model mean,consistent with previous studies based on surface and satellite observations. Although most of the 22 CMIP6 models show common seasonal cycles of CF and liquid water path/ice water path(LWP/IWP), large inter-model spreads exist in the amounts of CF and LWP/IWP throughout the year, indicating the influences of different cloud parameterization schemes used in different models. Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project(CFMIP)observation simulator package(COSP) is a great tool to accurately assess the performance of climate models on simulating clouds. More intuitive and credible evaluation results can be obtained based on the COSP model output. In the future, with the release of more COSP output of CMIP6 models, it is expected that those inter-model spreads and the model-observation biases can be substantially reduced. Longer term active satellite observations are also necessary to evaluate models' cloud simulations and to further explore the role of clouds in the rapid Arctic climate changes.     

Geomorphic effectiveness: a linear concept in a non‐linear world

Geomorphic effectiveness has been an influential concept in geomorphology since its introduction by Reds Wolman and John Miller in 1960. It provided a much needed framework to assess the significance of an event by comparing event magnitude to the resultant geomorphic effects. Initially, this concept was applied primarily in river channels, under the linear assumption that geomorphic responses to similarly sized flood events will be consistent. Numerous authors have since attempted to quantify a direct, proportional relationship between event magnitude and different forms of geomorphic response in a variety of geomorphic settings. In doing so, these investigations applied an array of metrics that were difficult to compare across different spatiotemporal scales, and physiographic and geomorphic environments. Critically, the emergence of other geomorphic concepts such as sensitivity, connectivity, thresholds, and recovery has shown that relationships between causes (events) and geomorphic effects (responses) are often complex and non‐linear. This paper disentangles the complex historical development of the geomorphic effectiveness concept and reviews the utility of various metrics for quantifying effectiveness. We propose that total energy (joules) is the most appropriate metric to use for quantifying the magnitude of disturbance events (cause) and volumetric sediment flux associated with landform modification is the most appropriate metric for quantifying geomorphic effects. While both metrics are difficult to quantify, they are the only ones which facilitate comparison across a range of spatiotemporal scales (comparability) in a variety of geomorphic environments (flexibility). The geomorphic effectiveness concept can continue to be useful provided that geomorphologists use flexible and comparable metrics. Today, geomorphologists are better prepared to consider the influence of non‐linear processes on determinations of geomorphic effectiveness, allowing investigators to not only determine if a disturbance event was effective but also to explain why or why not. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于CSI效应的直线电机驱动塔系结构风振控制研究

控制系统与结构振动的相互作用(Control Structure Interaction,简称CSI)广泛存在于结构与主动控制系统之间,然而目前在直线电机驱动的塔系结构风振控制研究中往往没有充分考虑CSI效应,使得理论控制效果与实际控制效果存在偏差。为了考察CSI效应对塔系结构风振控制的影响,首先以电磁驱动AMD系统"电-力-运动"相互关系模型为基础,建立考虑CSI效应的塔系结构直线电机驱动AMD风振控制系统模型;其次综合权衡计算效率和控制精度的关系,选取考虑低阶CSI效应模型以及最经典的LQR控制算法。在此基础上,对该塔系结构确定是否考虑CSI效应进行相应的控制分析。结果表明,CSI效应在塔系结构风振控制中起着重要的作用,制定与实际工程结合更佳的直线电机驱动AMD系统风振控制方案中需要考虑CSI效应,为以后在实际工程中推广应用提供一种新思路。     

Enhanced bed load sediment transport by unsteady flows in a degrading channel

Laboratory flume experiments were done to investigate bed load sediment transport by both steady and unsteady flows in a degrading channel. The bed, respectively composed of uniform sand, uniform gravel, or sand-gravel mixtures, always undergoes bulk degradation. It is found that both uniform and non-uniform bed load transport is enhanced greatly by unsteady flows as compared to their volume-equivalent steady flows. This enhancement effect is evaluated by means of an enhancement factor, which is shown to be larger with a coarser bed and lower discharges. Also, the fractional transport rates of gravel and sand in non-uniform sand-gravel mixtures are compared with their uniform counterparts under both steady and unsteady flows. The sand is found to be able to greatly promote the transport of gravel, whilst the gravel considerably hinders the transport of sand. Particularly, the promoting and hindering impacts are more pronounced at lower discharges and tend to be weakened by flow unsteadiness.