Simulation of spatial population dynamics based on labor economics and multi-agent systems: a case study on a rapidly developing manufacturing metropolis

Spatial population dynamics affects resource allocation in urban planning. Simulation of population dynamics can provide useful information to urban planning for rapidly developing manufacturing metropolises. In such a metropolis with a concentration of immigrant labor forces, individual employment choices could have a significant effect on their residential decisions. There remains a need for an efficient method, which can simulate spatial population dynamics by considering the interactions between employment and residential choices. This article proposes an agent-based model for simulation of spatial population dynamics by addressing the influence of labor market on individual residential decisions. Labor economics theory is incorporated into a multi-agent system in this model. The long-term equilibrium process of labor market is established to define the interactions between labor supply and labor demand. An agent-based approach is adopted to simulate the economic behaviors and residential decisions of population individuals. The residential decisions of individuals would eventually have consequences on spatial population dynamics. The proposed model has been verified by the spatial dynamics simulation (2007 to 2010) of Dongguan, an emerging and renowned manufacturing metropolis in the Pearl River Delta, China. The results indicate that the simulated population size and spatial distribution of each town in Dongguan are close to those obtained from census data. The proposed model is also applied to predict spatial population dynamics based on two economic planning scenarios in Dongguan from 2010 to2015. The predicted results provide insights into the population dynamics of this fast-growing region.     

乡镇“有为政府”产业政策的逻辑与检验——基于新结构经济学视角

为解决乡村振兴中乡镇政府如何选择正确产业和如何制定合理产业政策2个重要问题,运用新结构经济学“增长甄别与因势利导框架”分析并提出乡镇“有为政府”产业政策演化的逻辑框架：1）选择产业,依据“两步六轨法”选择具备相似资源禀赋、约束条件的产业。2）政策制定,针对筛选出的产业制定合理的政策内容、选择适当的政策工具,以支持产业发展。以该逻辑框架为依据分析了云南省西双版纳州勐罕镇的产业现状、目标乡镇比较优势产业,发现勐罕镇领先型产业为菠萝种植业,应通过引进菠萝深度加工企业,建设营销网络、运输网络,提供市场信息支持产业发展;转进型产业为传统种植业和特色养殖业,应通过建立冷链物流等基础设施、培训农户种养能力,提高农户市场参与度;“弯道超车型”产业为酒类制造和傣药生产等,应通过联合农户开发制造技术体系,协助注册品牌商标,建设生产和成品制造基地等促进产业发展,从而完成了逻辑框架的实践检验。总体上,因势利导逻辑框架既结合实际又着眼未来,为乡镇政府的产业政策决策提供了理论指导和经验借鉴。     

Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law.Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice.What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use.Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher.Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research.     

沙尘暴问题的经济学分析

沙尘暴也是一个经济问题，引发沙尘暴的主要原因是人类不合理的经济活动，而其根本原因在于制度安排的不合理和低效率，该文从人口，博弈论，产品价格三方面进行了分析。     

当前全球矿业形势分析与展望

全球矿业发展与工业化进程密切相关,具有与全球经济发展周期基本一致的显著的周期性特征。在同一个周期内,各种资源需求在时间上具有波次(递进)性,它决定着矿业的持续与繁荣。从2003开始全球矿业进入了第3个周期,其特征包括矿业产业集中度加剧、垄断特征更加显著、矿产品低成本时代终结等。同时,这一时期出现了大量国际金融资本进入矿产品市场的现象,使得矿产品价格体系趋于复杂化。从中长期来看,中国、印度、非洲等新兴经济体工业化、城镇化进程不会停滞,刚性资源需求将推动此轮超级周期继续前行。从中短期来看,欧美债务危机继续升级恶化,中东格局正发生着重大变化,全球经济二次探底风险愈发增大。在全球经济增长不如预期、矿产品需求下降、新增矿山产能释放和矿产品价格进入新一轮调整阶段的情况下,未来一段时期内,全球矿业形势将表现为"需求放缓、价格高位、震荡加剧"。     

Groundwater irrigation and its implications for water policy in semiarid countries: the Spanish experience

Over the last decades, groundwater irrigation has become commonplace in many arid and semiarid regions worldwide, including Spain. This is largely a consequence of the advances in drilling and pumping technologies, and of the development of Hydrogeology. Compared with traditional surface water irrigation systems, groundwater irrigation offers more reliable supplies, lesser vulnerability to droughts, and ready accessibility for individual users. Economic forces influence the groundwater irrigation sector and its development. In Spain's Mediterranean regions, abstraction costs often amount to a very small fraction of the value of crops. In the inner areas, groundwater irrigation supports a more stable flow of farm income than rainfed agriculture. The social (jobs/m³) and economic (€/m³) value of groundwater irrigation generally exceeds that of surface water irrigation systems. However, poor groundwater management and legal controversies are currently at the base of Spain's social disputes over water. A thorough and transparent assessment of the relative socio-economic value of groundwater in relation to surface water irrigation might contribute to mitigate or avoid potential future conflicts. Enforcement of the European Union's Water Framework Directive may deliver better groundwater governance and a more sustainable use.

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Resumen Durante las últimas décadas, la irrigación con agua subterránea se ha vuelto común en muchas regiones áridas y semiáridas alrededor del mundo, incluyendo a España. Ésta es en gran medida una consecuencia de los adelantos en las tecnologías de perforación y bombeo, y del desarrollo de la Hidrogeología. Comparada con los sistemas tradicionales de irrigación con agua superficial, la irrigación con agua subterránea ofrece suministros más fiables, la vulnerabilidad es menor a las sequías, y posee accesibilidad inmediata para los usuarios individuales. Las fuerzas económicas influyen el sector de irrigación con agua subterránea y su desarrollo. En las regiones mediterráneas de España, los costos de extracción suman a menudo una parte muy pequeña del valor de las cosechas. En las áreas internas, la irrigación con agua subterránea constituye un flujo más estable de ingresos para la granja, que la agricultura dependiente del agua lluvia. El valor social (empleos/m³) y económico (€/m³) de la irrigación con agua subterránea, generalmente excede a aquél con sistemas de irrigación de agua superficial. Sin embargo, la gestión pobre del agua subterránea y las controversias legales están actualmente en la base de las disputas sociales en España acerca del agua. Una evaluación completa y transparente del valor socio-económico relativo de agua subterránea respecto a la irrigación con agua superficial, podría contribuir mitigar o evitar los conflictos potenciales del futuro. La entrada en vigor del Marco Reglamentario de Agua de la Unión Europea, puede conllevar a una administración mejor del agua subterránea y a un uso más sostenible.

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Résumé Depuis les dernières décennies, l’irrigation avec l’eau souterraine est devenue commune dans plusieurs régions arides et semi-arides, incluant l’Espagne. Ceci est largement une conséquence due à l’avancement aux technologies de forages et des pompages, et au développement de l’Hydrogéologie. Comparé avec des systèmes traditionnels d’irrigation utilisant l’eau de surface, l’irrigation avec l’eau souterraine offre une technique d’alimentation plus fiable, une vulnérabilité à la sécheresse moins grande, et une accessibilité plus aisée pour chaque utilisateur. Les forces économiques influencent le secteur de l’irrigation par l’eau souterraine et son développement. Dans les régions de l’Espagne Méditerranéenne, les coûts d’exploitation représentent toujours une petite fraction de la valeur des cultures. Dans les régions intérieures, l’irrigation par l’eau souterraine supporte une agriculture plus stable et continue qu’une agriculture reposant sur l’eau de pluie. La valeur sociale (emploi/m³) et économique (€/m³) de l’irrigation avec l’eau souterraine, excède généralement celle des systèmes d’irrigation avec l’eau de surface. Néanmoins, des gestions pauvres de l’eau souterraine et des controverses légales sont couramment à la base de disputes sociales sur l’eau. Un bilan transparent et minutieux des valeurs relatives socio-économiques de l’eau souterraine en relation avec l’eau de surface d’irrigation, devrait contribuer à éviter de potentiels et futurs conflits. Un renforcement de la Directive Cadre de l’Union Européenne devrait apporter une meilleure gouvernance et un usage plus durable.

     

景观经济学:内涵、基本问题和研究方法

对自然和人文景观资源消费与创造行为作为经济学分支或研究方向的必要性及其规律进行探索性、综述性分析,在文献梳理基础上提出景观经济学的内涵、基本问题和研究方法等基本结构框架。景观经济学是研究公众对自然及人文景观偏好形成及演化规律、景观资源消费与创造行为经济规律的社会科学,其基本问题包括景观资源价值评估、景观资源最优利用、景观资源开发与保护政策以及多元景观结构的形成与创造等,其研究方法包括消费者意愿调查法、实验与行为经济学方法、逻辑推理法和个案分析法等。     

Social responsibility in shipping

This paper discusses the effects of competition in shipping, noting recent gains for the consumers of shipping services, a variety of strategies for investors in shipping and some of the effects on seamen. The dangers of monopolistic effects in ports are described and there is a discussion of the externalities involved in maritime safety, including pollution. The current regulatory regime, particularly the involvement of classification societies, is criticised and it is suggested that lessons can be learnt from other industries.     

2004—2013年新疆县域经济空间差异演化

选取2004—2013年人均GDP数据,采用ArcGIS9.3软件,运用空间自相关和标准差椭圆相结合的方法剖析了新疆县域经济空间差异动态演化特征。结果表明:新疆各县域经济发展水平具有显著的空间自相关性;热点区域虽呈现出一定的波动性,但主要分布在奎屯、克拉玛依、乌鲁木齐等北疆地区;2004—2013年,新疆县域经济呈现出东北—西南的空间分布格局;标准差椭圆呈现出逐渐向东疆、南疆地区移动的趋势,总体上以和硕县为核心,范围包括了新疆经济发展的主体地区;经济重心呈现东南—东北—西南方向的变动趋势。最后,对新疆县域经济空间演化机理进行分析。