渤海湾巨葛庄贝壳堤与下伏泥层有孔虫组合的海面变化意义

根据巨葛庄贝壳堤及下伏泥层的有孔虫研究,讨论了贝壳堤底板和下伏泥层各类沉积环境的海面意义,以此作为海面标志点重建的古海面误差范围为±0.225~±0.625m。结合该贝壳堤底板和下伏泥层顶板的年龄数据,重建了3900~3300cal BP时的海面高度为-2.955~-2.715m。     

安徽省淮北平原地下水环境与工作方向

安徽省淮北平原位于该省北部,平原西部阜阳市地面沉降中心最大沉降量1501mm,采水型地面沉降进一步扩大,推测平原西部地区已发生大范围的地面沉降.淮北平原区饮水型高氟地方病广布,地氟病区占全区总面积的40%.其中轻病村17942个,占病村总数79.5%;中度病村4529个,占20.0%;重病村148个,占病村总数0.65%.病区乡人口总数1344.4万人,占淮北平原总人口的66%.区域地下水水位持续下降,地下水质量不断劣化.本文通过对以上主要水环境问题的论述,提出了平原区今后工作方向的建议.     

中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系

利用中国沿海台站潮位和中国近海及赤道太平洋的卫星测高、海表温度、风及气压资料,分析了中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系。分析结果表明:中国沿海海平面季节变化受ENSO影响明显,在厄尔尼诺事件期间,中国沿海海平面Sa分潮的振幅明显减小,其中年振幅的历史极小值均出现厄尔尼诺年,不同区域历史极小值出现的年份不同;另外,中国沿海Sa分潮的振幅对厄尔尼诺事件的响应与其强弱有关,在强事件中,响应区域和幅度较大,弱事件中,响应区域和幅度偏小。在厄尔尼诺年,中国沿海海平面多低于相邻年份,并且其年际变化存在明显的2~3a、4~7a、准9a、11a和准19a的周期,其中4~7a的周期在冬春季节震荡最显著,其震荡幅度接近2cm。中国近海海平面与赤道东太平洋区域的海表温度年际变化之间存在反相关关系,其相关系数为-0.42;同时与Nio4和Nio3.4指数序列也呈现反相关关系。针对典型的1997/1998年尼诺事件发生前后的风场和气压场分析发现,尼诺发生前的冬半年,冬季风偏强,气压梯度加强,中国沿海海平面偏低;到了厄尔尼诺的盛期,出现较强的南风异常,气压梯度反向,季风转向,过渡到了厄尔尼诺事件的衰减期,为拉尼娜事件做准备,此时海平面偏高。     

SEA LEVEL RISE OF THE ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NEOTECTONICS

A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is significantly attributed to the local tectonic movement of discrepant fault-block. Based on this, four types of relative local sea level changes are classified. According to calculation, half of the fertile land, or 800 km2 of the delta plain will have been submerged by sea water by about 2040. This will yield a significant influence on the economic construction and human activities.     

Urban Economic Cluster Template and Its Dynamics of Beijing,China

Economic clusters have been a central focus of current urban and regional research, policies and practices. However, a meth- odology to identify and analyze policy-relevant economic cluster dynamics is still not well developed. Based on input-output （I-O） data of 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 of Beijing, this article presents an adapted principle component analysis for identifying the evolu- tion of local economic cluster patterns. This research addresses the changes of economic interaction of industries with complementary and common activities over time. The identified clusters provide an insight into the reality of economic development in a diversifying urban economy： the increasing importance of services and the growing interaction between service and manufacturing industries. Our method therefore provides the analysts with a better understanding of the emergence, disappearance and development of economic clus- ters citywide. The results could be used to assist monitoring urban economic development and designing more practical urban economic strategies.     

山东淄博地区奥陶系层序地层划分和层序界面的识别标志

研究区为华北地台东部奥陶系发育最全的地区之一。区内出露下、中奥陶统 (两河口阶至宝塔阶 ,时限 4 95～ 4 4 5Ma)。岩石地层划分为三山子组和马家沟组。通过对野外剖面系统的观测 ,按碳酸盐岩台地层序地层的研究方法 ,识别出区内奥陶系 8个三级层序 (OSq1-OSq8)和 4种层序界面标志。平均每个三级层序延限约 6Ma ,OSq1由三山子组B段 (TST)和A段 (HST)组成。马家沟组含东黄山段、北庵庄段、土峪段、五阳山段、阁庄段、八陡段和新汶段。东黄山段至土峪段含 2个层序 (OSq2和OSq3 )。五阳山段和阁庄段包含 3个层序(OSq4 -OSq7)。八陡段 (TST)和新汶段 (HST)组成最上部一个层序 (OSq8)。通过与河北唐山等地区同期地层的对比 ,提出华北地台下、中奥陶统 (两河口阶至宝塔阶 )可划分为 11个三级层序 ,探讨了华北地台下、中奥陶统层序差异性的可能的控制因素。     

中国环境污染变动的时空特征及其经济驱动因素

基于2003-2013年经济与环境污染数据,运用EKC模型、Moran's I指数、LMDI指数,将污染排放的经济因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、能源消费效应、能源开发效应、技术污染效应,探讨中国环境污染变动的时空特征。结果表明,中国环境污染总量未到达EKC曲线拐点,处于EKC曲线左侧。在时间维度上,规模效应加剧了环境污染恶化,其他效应的变化间接改善了环境状况。在空间维度上,规模效应的高值聚集区是东部地区;结构效应、能源消费效应、技术污染效应的高值聚集区主要是中西部地区,低值聚集区多为东部和东北地区;能源开发效应是全国范围的整体偏低。中国污染重心在113°E~115°E,32°N~34.5°N的区域内移动,以北京—吉林—广东—浙江等省份所构成的区域,受不同经济效应影响,在向东、向西之间“抉择移动”。     

经济全球化下地方生产网络模式演变分析——以中国为例

作为地方生产网络的主体 ,在经济全球化下 ,企业行为是全球化力量和地方化力量共同作用的结果。其中 ,全球化力量促使了企业生产要素可以跨越时间和空间障碍 ,在所有区位自由布局 ;地方化力量则使企业生产活动依然受到地方经济基础和制度文化背景的影响。本文认为经济全球化下地方生产网络是全球性企业和地方性企业战略行为博弈的结果。全球性企业和地方性企业的战略行为不同 ,其对全球生产网络和地方生产网络的影响也不同。本文从企业行为博弈的角度来分析经济全球化下 ,地方性生产企业的行为选择及其导致的地方生产网络变化 ,并以目前我国常见的三种地方生产网络演变模式为例 ,进行实证分析。     

中国东海海平面长期变化与趋势研究

From the analyses of the satellite altimeter Maps of Sea Level Anomaly(MSLA) data, tidal gauge sea level data and historical sea level data, this paper investigates the long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea(ECS).Based on the correlation analysis, we calculate the correlation coefficient between tidal gauge and the closest MSLA grid point, then generate the map of correlation coefficient of the entire ECS. The results show that the satellite altimeter MSLA data is effective to observe coastal sea level variability. An important finding is that from map of correlation coefficient we can identify the Kuroshio. The existence of Kuroshio decreases the correlation between coastal and the Pacific sea level. Kurishio likes a barrier or a wall, which blocks the effect of the Pacific and the global change. Moreover, coastal sea level in the ECS is mainly associated with local systems rather than global change. In order to calculate the long-term sea level variability trend, the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) method is applied to derive the trend on each MSLA grid point in the entire ECS. According to the 2-D distribution of the trend and rising rate, the sea level on the right side of the axis of Kuroshio rise faster than in its left side. This result supports the barrier effect of Kuroshio in the ECS. For the entire ECS, the average sea level rose 45.0 mm between 1993 and 2010, with a rising rate of(2.5±0.4) mm/a which is slower than global average.The relatively slower sea level rising rate further proves that sea level rise in the ECS has less response to global change due to its own local system effect.     

祁连山冰川变化及其脆弱性

Glaciers are a reliable freshwater resource in arid regions of West China and the vulnerability of its changes is closely related to regional ecosystem services and economic sustainable development. Here, we took the Qilian Mountains as an example and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier changes from 1998 to 2018, based on remote sensing images and the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory. We estimated the basic organizational framework and evaluation index system of glacier change vulnerability from exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, which covered the factors of physical geography, population status and socio-economic level. We analyzed the spatial and temporal evolutions of glacier change vulnerability by using the vulnerability evaluation model. Our results suggested that:(1) Glacier area and volume decreased by 71.12±98.98 km² and 5.59±4.41 km³, respectively, over the recent two decades, which mainly occurred at the altitude below 4800 m, with an area shrinking rate of 2.5%. In addition, glaciers in the northern aspect(northwest, north and northeast) had the largest area reduction. Different counties exhibited remarkable discrepancies in glacier area reduction, Tianjuan and Minle presented the maximum and minimum decrease, respectively.(2) Glacier change vulnerability level showed a decreasing trend in space from the central to the northwestern and southeastern regions with remarkable differences. Vulnerability level had increased significantly over time and was mainly concentrated in moderate, high and extreme levels with typical characteristics of phases and regional complexity. Our study can not only help to understand and master the impacts of recent glacier changes on natural and social aspects but also be conducive to evaluate the influences of glacier retreat on socio-economic developments in the future, thus providing references for formulating relevant countermeasures to achieve regional sustainable development.