琼州7.5级地震区深部电性异常及地震活动性研究

通过对1605年琼州7.5级大地震震中区及邻近地区大地电磁探测,发现震中区地壳深部存在一低阻体.该低阻体自约13 km以下一直延伸到上地幔,推测其为正在上升的地幔柱,并由此认为地幔柱的存在及其热物质的上涌,使上部地壳产生断裂和粘滑活动,是产生琼州7.5级大地震的重要原因. 这次大地震后断裂活动表现为以蠕滑为主.推测未来再发生同等强度大地震的危险性将大大降低.      

Marine conservation challenges in an era of economic crisis and geopolitical instability: The case of the Mediterranean Sea

In the Mediterranean Sea, socio-economic drivers may accelerate the process of exclusive economic zone (EEZ) declarations. Despite the challenges, the EEZ declarations may provide important opportunities for leveraging change to national policy towards the development of large-scale conservation of marine ecosystems and biodiversity in this zone. Using the Mediterranean Sea as a case study, we aim to highlight a set of best practices that will maximize the potential for the development of large-scale marine conservation initiatives. These include a range of approaches, such as using surrogates to fill the many biodiversity data gaps in the region, further the development of consistent and open access databases, and the utilization of technological developments to improve monitoring, research and surveillance of less accessible and under-explored marine areas. The integration of Mediterranean-wide and local conservation efforts, the facilitation of transboundary collaboration, and the establishment of regional funds for conservation will further enhance opportunities for marine conservation in this region.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

蓖麻生长农业气象条件分析及栽培技术初探

根据对蓖麻发育期的观测，结合当地气象条件，分析了阿克苏种植蓖麻的适应性及栽培中应采取的趋利避害的技术措施。     

从《徐霞客游记》看明末南方的社会经济生活——纪念徐霞客逝世350周年

本文以《徐霞客游记》为依据,对明末南方的社会经济生活状况进行了初步归纳和分析,以揭示徐霞客对我国人文地理学的突出贡献。     

中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

以中国展览业为例,立足于展览业和区域经济发展的空间分布特征,使用Moran’s I和Moran’s I散点图阐释展览业与区域经济之间的空间自相关性,分析纳入空间因素的空间计量经济模型相对于经典回归模型的优越程度,进而揭示展览业发展对区域经济的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示：① 中国展览业发展和区域经济水平在地理空间上分布都不均衡;② 展览业及区域经济皆呈现高高聚集（HH）、低低聚集（LL）两种空间聚集格局;③ 现阶段,中国展馆规模与区域经济之间存在正相关关系;④ SLM优于经典回归模型,展览业发展对区域经济存在显著的空间溢出效应,在展览经济预测研究中充分考虑区域经济增长过程中的空间效应十分必要。     

Early stage of critical clusters growth in phenomenological and molecular dynamics simulation models

The growth of critical clusters is discussed in the paper according to the classical and molecular dynamics (MD) approaches. A new formula for molecule numbers in critical clusters has been derived within the framework of the classical approach. A set of equations controlling the early stage of growth in a neighborhood of a critical size is presented. As far as molecular dynamics simulation is concerned, a computational technique based on the DL_POLY code is described in brief. Computation results are presented concerning cluster formation of H₂O vapor, distribution of clusters versus time, cluster growth and radial density distribution of isolated clusters. A comparison with the classical results is made for a case of dense vapor, where the mechanism of strong condensation is predominant. The Hertz–Knudsen formula seems to be verified by the molecular dynamics results.     

基于GPS信号和Klobuchar电离层模型反演地磁北极

基于地磁对电离层的影响,尝试利用GPS信号和Klobuchar模型估计地磁北极在地理坐标系中的位置,并建立了相应的数学模型。理论分析和数据验证了方法的可行性,如果进行Klobuchar模型的区域化改进和算法的完善,将更有利于地磁北极估计的可靠性和估计精度的提高。     

旅游业对石林县区域经济的影响与对策分析

随着西部大开发战略的深入实施,如何全面认识旅游业对西部经济落后地区经济的影响,成为旅游学界关注的热点问题之一。通过对石林县社会经济统计数据的综合分析以及实地调研,证实了旅游业对促进石林县国民经济总量扩大、推动产业结构高级化和带动相关产业发展等方面具有积极作用。同时,针对当前石林旅游内部结构和发展质量中存在的旅游产品单一、景区发展失衡和社区受益不足等主要问题,提出了以推动区域经济总体发展和带动农村居民脱贫作为旅游发展的两大基本任务和实现旅游产业增长模式从数量型向内涵型增长转变的基本思路,以及相应的对策。