中国产业发展与布局的关联法则

产业地理学研究产业空间分布及其动态演化规律。基于地理邻近性的集聚理论揭示了产业地理不平衡分布的内在机制。演化经济地理学借鉴演化经济学的历史视角,从历史角度考察经济活动空间分布的渐进演化机制,认为地理邻近性不是产业地理格局演化的充分必要条件,以认知邻近性为核心的多维邻近性能够提供更好的解释。本文从认知邻近视角系统地分析了中国区域产业发展与布局动态演化规律,总结出中国产业发展与布局的“关联法则”,即一个企业或区域进入（或退出）某项经济活动的概率是该企业或地区拥有的基于相关知识基础的经济活动的函数。本文全面地回顾了关联法则涉及的关键概念,梳理企业和区域尺度的实证研究成果,讨论关联法则在中国的适用性及其补充和拓展。本文指出：① 在认知邻近视角下,基于资源转换和组织学习等理论基础,关联法则研究了企业或区域发展新产业与现有产业之间的关系。② 关联法则不仅适用于中国企业和区域尺度,还会影响区域经济发展、创新和韧性等。③ 外部联系、冲击以及内部制度环境等可能会降低区域产业动态对本地产业基础的依赖性。关联法则指出中国区域需培育内生发展模式,围绕现有区域能力、技术和知识积累发展区域产业和实现区际产业优化布局与分工,逐步建立相关多样化的产业体系,增强区域韧性,支撑国内经济循环。     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

从全球生产网络到全球金融网络：理解全球-地方经济联系的新框架

全球化带来的新国际劳动分工使全球生产网络(Global Production Network, GPN)成为研究全球经济与区域发展的重要框架。与此同时,金融在现代社会经济运行中的地位日益提升,经济金融化在全球不同尺度下深刻影响着经济活动的空间分布和网络。因此,金融已经成为GPN研究不能忽略的重要环节。更重要的是,金融化带来的逻辑也日益深刻地影响到GPN的演化和运行。尽管GPN研究日益重视金融的作用,并开始研究金融业的全球生产网络,但是随着越来越多的企业通过获得国际股权投资或者在境外资本市场上市等方式融入全球资本市场,主要从生产角度理解地方经济融入全球过程的GPN难以对该现象深入分析。全球金融网络(Global Financial Network, GFN)为刻画和分析这个过程提供了新的框架。在这个分析框架中,地方经济体通过高级商业服务业(Advanced Business Service, ABS)企业与世界城市(国际金融中心)和离岸管辖区产生联系,从而融入GFN。论文介绍了GFN的基本结构,探讨了地方经济融入GFN的主要方式及其产生的影响。最后,提出GFN未来在理论和实证方面可继续深入研究的方向。     

土壤微生物结皮对两种一年生植物幼苗存活和生长的影响

在温室实验和野外调查中,分析了两种一年生草本植物小画眉草(Eragrostics poaeoides)和雾冰藜(Bassia dasyphylla)的幼苗在苔藓结皮、藻结皮和流沙上的存活和生长状况。两种植物的幼苗存活率均表现出在苔藓结皮上最高而在流沙基质中最低。两种植物幼苗存活率与土壤表层水分含量呈正相关关系。与小画眉草相比较,雾冰藜的幼苗在萌发后根生长较为迅速,在3种土壤类型中和干湿两种水分处理下,雾冰藜较小画眉草均具有较高的幼苗存活率。在干燥处理下,生长在有结皮土壤中的两种植物的植株干重大约是生长在无结皮土壤中植株的5倍。增加水分能降低植株幼苗的死亡率,促进植株生长;增加水分也能在一定程度上减弱因土壤基质差异对幼苗存活和幼苗生长的影响。因此,在自然状况下年降雨量的多少和分配状况的差异可能会影响这两种植物每年幼苗存活率和生长状况的差异,进而会影响到这两个种群在人工固沙区盖度和分布格局的差异性。     

ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND PAN-PACIFIC COUNTRIES:IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA

1ntroductionSincel978ChinaembarkedonitsmodemiZaionprogramadopingtheopnDoorPOliCy.Sincethen,cooperationbe~nChinaandtheho-forificcountriesews)havebeenintensifiedandextensified.Noonlybilateraltradeactivitieshavebeenburgeoning,therehasalsobeenPhenomenatgrOWthinthedirectinvestmentineachothefseconomy.Besides,therehasbeenemergingsomenewtypesofmultinationalcoopefationtopromOtefullexploitationofmralandhumanresourcesandtoutilizeeachOther'scomParativeadvantags.TwoPedicularareaswhichmaybelookedaspoe…     

Accuracy of forecasting in a Nordic paper mill's supply chain: A case study

The article compares the accuracy of forecasted and actual supply chain cost and price factors in a Nordic paper mill's sales to customers in two large European countries. Empirical longitudinal research data covering the years between 2002 and 2008 were obtained from a large integrated Finnish paper mill, and consisted of sales volumes, paper prices, variable costs, and transport costs. It was expected that the mill would be able to forecast demand, prices and costs accurately, but the empirical findings showed that the forecasts for paper price, demand, and cost varied from one market to another and were not highly accurate. In addition, the forecasting of gross margins seemed to be very inexact. It is concluded that there is a need for more reliable forecasting methods in the paper industry to anticipate economic development as paper demand and costs change.     

Compact,concurrent, and contiguous: smart growth and 50 years of residential planning in the Toronto region

In this article, we use parcel-based land-use data to analyze 50 years of residential development in the Toronto region. We test two hypotheses: (1) Toronto’s form does not conform to conventional definitions of suburban sprawl and (2) Toronto’s suburban development shows high levels of continuity over time with relatively high densities and mixed housing types. Contrary to recent research suggesting a convergence of urban forms among North American metropolitan regions, Ontario’s robust planning system has created a distinctive, highly consistent pattern of residential development that has, for half a century, achieved many of the core goals of smart growth including relatively compact, contiguous, and concurrent development. This form continues to be automobile dependent, however, and is not producing many of the benefits ascribed to smart growth. Rather than continuing to adopt United States-inspired smart growth policies, a more ambitious set of initiatives will be required to address current regional challenges.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

MASCULINISM,POWER, AND DISCOURSES OF EXCLUSION IN BRIAN BERRY’S “SCIENTIFIC” GEOGRAPHY

This paper examines the impact of changes in industry mix, changes in technology, differential plant growth, plant entry and plant exit on metropolitan labor productivity growth between 1963 and 1997. Analysis is based upon unpublished plant-level data from the United States Bureau of the Census. We show that manufacturing productivity varies markedly between metropolitan areas in the United States. The most influential components of productivity growth are technological changes within incumbent plants and changes in industry mix. Significant differences in the relative contributions of these components of productivity change exist across metropolitan areas. Regional differences in rates of plant openings and plant closures also exert considerable impact on metropolitan productivity improvement.     

湖北省棉花产量的变化与棉田布局的战略调整*

本文揭示了湖北省棉花亩产的增长具有北高南低的特点,分析了鄂北地区种植棉花的自然优势和经济效盆大于江汉平原,从而提出湖北省棉花北移的战略调整的设想。