Modified Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Dynamic Data Integration Using Streamline Approach

In this paper, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is used for sampling of the permeability field conditioned on the dynamic data. The novelty of the approach consists of using an approximation of the dynamic data based on streamline computations. The simulations using the streamline approach allows us to obtain analytical approximations in the small neighborhood of the previously computed dynamic data. Using this approximation, we employ a two-stage MCMC approach. In the first stage, the approximation of the dynamic data is used to modify the instrumental proposal distribution. The obtained chain correctly samples from the posterior distribution; the modified Markov chain converges to a steady state corresponding to the posterior distribution. Moreover, this approximation increases the acceptance rate, and reduces the computational time required for MCMC sampling. Numerical results are presented.     

云南省禄劝县开发方向的初步研究

云南省禄劝县隶属昆明市辖区,是一个国家级扶贫开发重点县之一.境内河流众多,水资源丰富,但地表切割强烈,山高谷深,坝地仅占总面积的1.6%,复杂的地貌条件严重制约了县域经济的发展.从禄劝县资源优势出发,变劣势为优势,提出发展生态种植业,生态养殖业和生态林果业的持续农业发展方向,使禄劝县发展成昆明市的菜篮子基地,为农民脱贫致富,增加收入提出了一条切实可行的路子.     

城市生态景观的构建研究

运用景观生态学、旅游规划学、城市规划理论来认识城市生态景观并分析其具有和谐性、整体性、多样性、畅达性、安全性、可持续性等特点，阐述以人为本、尊重地域和历史文化、生态、满足市民休闲与游憩需求等构建原则，认为重点抓好自然廊道和斑块等自然生态景观的建设、重视人工廊道和城市建筑密集区的景观效果、完善城市生态景观的空间结构体系等是构建和谐城市生态景观的重要途径。     

海南岛东南海岸带景观生态规划

对海南岛东南海岸带进行了景观生态规划。根据海南岛东南海岸带的自然资源条件与经济运行特点，将研究区划分为4个生态区：近岸热带海洋旅游区；海水养殖区；海岸平原粮牧生态区；生态林业区。各区的生态与社会经济特征不同，在利用与管理各生态区的过程中应该采取不同的对策措施，即加强宣传教育与宏观管理，以重点项目建设为契机，加快生态经济建设，优化生态经济结构。建立生物多样性管护区。     

Retailing local food in the Scottish-English borders: A supply chain perspective

Local food is championed as one alternative response to industrial systems of food production and supply. While advocacy for local food is high, there is a lack of empirical evidence about the actual shape and scale of such food supply chains, especially from a retail perspective. Using supply chain diagrams, this paper presents a summary of ‘new’ agro-food geographies for five different retail types—farm shops, butchers, caterers, specialist shops, supermarkets/department stores—that all source local food from suppliers in the Scottish-English borders. Presented as five separate ‘shopping trips’, the paper examines where, how and why retailers source local food. Results reveal the complex nature of local food systems, especially in terms of intra-sector competitive dynamics (with a notable tension between direct forms of retail and established (independent) retailers), links and overlaps with ‘normal’ food retail systems and elastic notions of the ‘local’. The paper also draws a key distinction between locally produced and locally supplied food products.     

The Tornquist Zone, a north east inclining lithospheric transition at the south western margin of the Baltic Shield: Revealed through a nonlinear teleseismic tomographic inversion

From July 1996 to August 1997 the TOR project operated 130 seismographs in North Germany, Denmark and South Sweden, with the aim of collecting signals from local, regional and teleseismic earthquakes. This data set is particularly interesting since the seismic antenna crosses the most significant geological boundary in Europe, the Tornquist Zone, which in the northern part is the border between the Baltic Shield and the younger European lithosphere. Previous studies have shown significant physical changes in the crust and upper mantle across this transition zone, including two independent teleseismic tomographic studies of the TOR data set. But these two studies disagree on the orientation of the slope of the transition. Both studies used an iterative linearized inversion method. We will in this work Preprint submitted to Elsevier Science 27 July 2005 present an inversion based on Bayesian statistics, where the solution space is examined in order to study a very large number of tomographic solutions and to examine the solution uniqueness and uncertainty. The method is applied to measurements of 3345 relative teleseismic P-phase travel times from 48 teleseismic earthquakes with good azimuthal coverage with respect to the great circle arc of the TOR array. We find the lithospheric transition to be a north east inclination of around 30° to 45° off vertical.     

新疆和田河水资源利用与绿色走廊生态建设研究

水是和田河绿色走廊形成与演变最重要的因素。虽然和田河径流量年际变化比较平稳．但年内径流量洪枯季节差异十分悬殊，人工调配水资源的难度较大。随着人类开发利用水资源规模扩大．水资源时空分布格局发生变化，中上游人工绿洲面积扩大，下游绿色走廊植被衰竭，土地荒漠化日趋严重，走廊生态环境持续恶化。文章分析了和田河水资源变化对下游绿色走廊兴衰的影响过程，提出了合理利用水资源、保护绿色走廊生态环境的对策建议。     

实施流域生态管理的长江中下游湿地保护探讨

长江中下游地区湿地分布广泛且类型多样,是我国淡水湖泊分布最集中和最具有代表性的地区。为了从根本上解决长江中下游湿地利用面临的问题,实现湿地资源的可持续利用,保护湿地环境,解决区内上、下游用水的供需矛盾,实现水资源的优化配置,调动区域湿地保护的积极性和主动性,有必要遵循湿地流域分布规律,应用流域生态学最新理论与实践成果,进行流域生态管理。一方面,要从流域角度处理好几大江湖关系、蓄泄关系、湖垸关系和山湖(河)关系等;另一方面,在流域内建立统一协调机制,对流域湿地进行保护与合理利用、合理布局和统一规划;同时在保护的前提下,科学合理地利用长江中下游湿地资源,开拓新的生产力。