塔里木河流域适应气候变化和人类活动的应对措施

自2001年开始实施塔里木河流域近期综合治理工程,提出了以强化流域水资源统一管理和调度为核心,以源流区节水改造和干流河道治理为重点进行综合治理,积极稳妥地进行经济结构调整,实施退耕封育保护,有效保护好现有天然林草植被.通过向塔里木河下游生态输水,干涸近30a的台特玛湖于2001年11月16日开始有水,使塔里木河下游绿色走廊得到初步复苏等,流域生态环境得到极大的恢复.然而,自2007年以来,塔里木河向下游输水已大为减少,仅能输水到中游,特别是2009年水文干旱,塔里木河干流断流达1 100km多,使下游绿色走廊再度陷入生态危机.为此,需要重新审视塔里木河流域的综合治理,从加强源流治理开始,来巩固干流治理成果.认真总结10a来治理经验与教训,针对人类活动和气候变化对源流与干流造成的影响程度,积极采取应对措施.     

全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为2700个单元,对地质灾害进行现状评价,并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加,编制了全国地质现状等值线图,在现状评价基础上,对地质灾害进行趋势预测,将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素,运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判,编制了1:600万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。     

胶州湾海域营养状况研究

根据2000～2009年胶州湾海水监测资料,选用单项指标分析和富营养化指数法,对胶州湾海域以及主要河口区营养水平进行评价。结果表明,胶州湾水质较差,无机氮严重超标,N/P值为62.7,呈现高N低P状况,整个海域呈中度-重度富营养状态。主要河口海域无机氮(IN)严重超标,富营养化程度高,其中墨水河口为严重富营养,楼山河口为重度富营养。     

桑沟湾农药残留及贝毒对海洋环境质量影响和主要食用贝类健康风险评估

根据2009-04—2010-02隔月6个航次桑沟湾9个调查站位贝类养殖区有机氯(OCPs)、有机磷(OPPs)农药残留和麻痹性贝毒(PSP)的调查资料,分析了它们在该海域海水中、表层沉积物中和主要贝类(栉孔扇贝、太平洋牡蛎和菲律滨蛤仔)体内的含量水平,就农药残留及贝毒污染对海洋环境质量的影响进行综合评价和类别划分,并对主要食用贝类中农药残留和贝毒的暴露水平进行健康风险评估。结果表明,桑沟湾贝类养殖区海水质量、沉积物质量和养殖贝类质量水平范围为1~2级,平均分别为2级、1级和1级,养殖生态环境综合质量水平为2级;总体上,该海域海洋环境综合质量处于良好水平,贝类产区生态环境质量为1类区(清洁区)。即该海域农药残留及贝毒污染对海洋环境质量影响较小或无明显影响。另外,针对食用桑沟湾贝类水产品的消费人群进行了农药残留及贝毒污染的健康风险评估,结果表明调查人群食用贝类中OCPs中的HCHs和DDTs、OPPs中的马拉硫磷和甲基对硫磷、PSP的日摄入量分别为0.75,2.11,0.19,0.09和1.22μg/(人·d),其摄入量低于ADI的推荐限值,因此桑沟湾主要食用贝类中农药残留及贝毒污染的健康风险处于安全范围。     

北戴河近岸海域表层沉积物重金属分布特征及污染评价

分析了北戴河近岸海域表层沉积物重金属含量和空间分布特征,利用修正综合指数法和潜在生态风险指数法对其污染程度进行了评价。结果表明,该区表层沉积物重金属平均含量较低,高值区主要分布在西南角和东北角河口,低值区主要分布在中部;区内重金属污染程度总体上处于较低至中等等级,污染相对明显的为人造河口、石河口和秦皇岛城区近岸海域。相对而言,Hg是主要的致污元素。     

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼,Illex argentinus,巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K,DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间,资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间,其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY,资源处在良好状态,没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。     

Sustainable shellfish aquaculture in Saldanha Bay,South Africa

The carrying capacity for bivalve shellfish culture in Saldanha Bay, South Africa, was analysed through the application of the well-tested EcoWin ecological model, in order to simulate key ecosystem variables. The model was set up using: (i) oceanographic and water-quality data collected from Saldanha Bay, and (ii) culture-practice information provided by local shellfish farmers. EcoWin successfully reproduced key ecological processes, simulating an annual mean phytoplankton biomass of 7.5 µg Chl a l^–1 and an annual harvested shellfish biomass of about 3 000 tonnes (t) y^–1, in good agreement with reported yield. The maximum annual carrying capacity of Small Bay was estimated as 20 000 t live weight (LW) of oysters Crassostrea gigas, or alternatively 5 100 t LW of mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis, and for Big Bay as 100 000 t LW of oysters. Two production scenarios were investigated for Small Bay: a production of 4 000 t LW y^–1 of mussels, and the most profitable scenario for oysters of 19 700 t LW y^–1. The main conclusions of this work are: (i) in 2015–2016, both Small Bay and Big Bay were below their maximum production capacity; (ii) the current production of shellfish potentially removes 85% of the human nitrogen inputs; (iii) a maximum-production scenario in both Big Bay and Small Bay would result in phytoplankton depletion in the farmed area; (iv) increasing the production intensity in Big Bay would probably impact the existing cultures in Small Bay; and (v) the production in Small Bay could be increased, resulting in higher income for farmers.     

Development of fouling communities on vertical structures in the Baltic Sea

The pillars of the bridge connecting the Island of Öland with the Swedish mainland were rebuilt between 1990 and 2000. The renovation produced pristine vertical concrete substrates, which became submerged in known years and seasons. The fouling communities on the pillars were examined in 2001 to determine whether the community structure could be explained in terms of either orderly successional development or of seasonal variation in the settlement of benthic organisms. As well, the communities on the pillars were compared to communities on the vertical surfaces of boulders in the area. The results indicated that an annual species composition is the final stage in the succession on the observed, vertical constructions. The few perennial species add to the variation between pillars as they increase in biomass (Polysiphonia fucoides) or become out-competed (Balanus improvisus). Also, observed seasonal differences in the biomass of these perennial species indicated that the time of year free space becomes available might be an important determinant of the future structure of the community. Comparison between the pillar and boulder communities showed that the artificial structures were not surrogates for the natural hard substrate: pillar communities differed in that they lacked most perennial algal species and had a high biomass of B. improvisus.     

Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model

A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1–3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects.A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.