El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Related Probabilities of Fatalities from Natural Perils in Australia

The interannual variability of flood, bushfire andheatwave fatality data for eastern Australia duringthe period 1876–1991 was analysed with respect to thephase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the associated values of the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI). Heatwaves were found to be the mostserious peril in terms of the total number offatalities, while floods ranked first in the fatalityevent day statistics. None of the three monthly(absolute value) fatality data sets showed significantcorrelations with the corresponding values of the SOI,while the correlation analysis of annual (July toJune) data led to significant correlation coefficientsof 0.5 for floods and -0.3 for bushfires. AdditionalSOI value-related classification of the standardisedfatality event days into several ENSO categoriesconfirmed the correlation trends by showing anincrease (decrease) in the standardised bushfire(flood) fatality event day frequencies with increasingvalues of the SOI. In contrast to that, thestandardised heatwave fatality data showed aninconclusive distribution pattern, which hints at theinfluence of other possible factors (such as airpollution) on heatwave-related fatality numbers.The results of a risk assessment analysis have shownthat the probability of reaching the mean annualnumber of flood-fatality event days is roughly fourtimes higher during La Niña seasons (80%) thanthe corresponding probability associated with ElNiño periods (18%). The correspondingprobabilities associated with the mean bushfire andheatwave fatality event days displayed a reversedpattern, with the probabilities of El Niño-relatedyears being roughly twice as high as those associatedwith La Niña seasons (70% and 30% for bushfires,and 60% and 25% for heatwaves, respectively).Further probability calculations performed on thetotals of fatalities from all three perils identifiedthe La Niña years as potentially the mostdangerous in terms of suffering fatalities from theseperils. Furthermore, they highlighted the significantdifferences between the means of fatality event daynumbers recorded during years of extreme SOI values(9.8 for La Niña, and 9.1 for El Niño seasons)and those marked by near-zero SOI values (6.6). Themajor reason for the increase in risk associated withextreme ENSO phases was the higher variability ofthese perils during the respective seasons.     

“数字福建”及“数字闽东南”的构建与应用

本文介绍“数字福建”建设发展状况及实施目标和任务,结合闽东南地区数字化、网络化、可视化和智能化问题,提出闽东南可持续发展的几点建议。建设“数字闽东南”就是要实现闽东南区域网络平台集成、应用系统集成和信息资源集成的电子化、数字化和智能化。     

TECTONIC TRANSFER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF PAMIR

TECTONIC TRANSFER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF PAMIR     

石家庄东部地区地热资源前景分析

本文根据石家庄地区周围钻孔资料和石家庄凹陷所处构造位置及形态 ,推测石家庄东部地区热储层特征及地温场特征 ,认为本区较有开发潜力的地热储层为第三系和下白垩统上段。     

Geochemistry of Subvolcanic-Type Copper-Silver Deposits in Eastern China

The metallogenesis of subvolcanic deposits is controlled by subvolcanic activities. The copper polymetallic deposits are genetically related to intermediate-acid rocks, and the silver polymetallic deposits are more closely related to acid rocks. The abundance of Cu is relatively high in the intermediate-acid rocks and subvolcanic rocks, whereas the abundances of Pb, An and Ag are high in acid rocks, indicating rich ore-forming elements in original magmas. The study of REEs shows that the magmatic type related to copper deposits is the syntectic type, and that related to silver polymetallic deposits is mainly the re-melting type. The deposits were formed under medium-low temperatures and low salinity. The metallogenic times were the late stage of the early Yanshanian or the late Yanshanian, dating 78-147 Ma.     

Geology, Genetic Types and Metallogeny of Gold Deposits in the Eastern Tianshan, Xinjiang

As a typical Palaeozoic island arc system, the eastern Tianshan area, Xinjiang, is different from eastern China but similar to the Meso-Cenozoic island arc metallogenic provinces along the coast of the Pacific Ocean in metallogenic environment, geology and geochemistry. Three types of gold deposits, ductile shear zone-hosted gold deposits (Kanggur ), magmatic hydrothermal gold deposits (Jinwozi) and volcanic- or subvolcanic-hosted gold deposits (Xitan and Mazhuangshan), have been identified in this area. Regionally, gold deposits are structurally controlled by the Kanggur Tag ductile shear zone, Shaquanzi fault, Hongliuhe fault and Yamansu fault. Generally, gold mineralization occurs in the transition zones from volcanic rocks to sedimentary rocks. The horizon bearing well-developed jasper is an important indicator for gold mineralization. Each of the three types of gold deposits has its distinctive metallogenic background and geological-geochemical characteristics.     

福建南部沿海的江豚

在闽南厦门至漳浦沿海获22只江豚,根据背部棘状小结节的数量与分布,可明显分为两个亚种,即指名亚种(N.P.Phocaenoides,81%)和北方亚种(N.P.Sunameri,19%),表明本海域是几个亚种的混栖地带,分析了这些江豚的外部形态和种群结构,测定了脂肪层及各内脏的重量.     

区域粮食总产量预测的灰色动态模型群

应用灰色系统理论 ,建立了福建省粮食总产量的动态模式 ,分析了粮食总产量的历史变动状况 ,并对1998～ 2 0 0 5年的粮食总产量进行预测。模型采用两种特殊措施 ,极大地提高了预测精度。     

闽南沿海地区不同日观测次数大气稳定度的对比

本文通过地处闽南沿海地区崇武气候站不同日观测次数大气稳定度的对比分析表明 :采用 8个时次和 4个时次观测记录所统计的稳定度频数 ,误差较小(与 2 4个时次比较 ,下同 ) ,对重要结论无大影响 ,能够较准确地描述大气稳定度的状况和特征 ;而采用 3个时次观测资料分析 ,其误差大 ,甚至导致相反的结果 ,实际应用时必须慎重。