Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts,recovery trends and future outlook

Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated; (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state; (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity according to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term.     

Theoretical Model and Dynamic Analysis of Soft Yoke Mooring System

As a popular solution for mooring an FPSO （Floating Production, Storage and Offloading） permanently in shallow water, the soft yoke mooring system has been widely used in ocean oil production activities in the Bohai Bay of China. In order to simulate the interaction mechanism and conduct dynamic analysis of the soft yoke mooring system, a theoretical model with basic dynamic equations is established. A numerical iteration algorithm based on error estimation is developed to solve the equations and calculate the dynanfic response of the mooring system due to FPSO motions. Validation is conducted by wave basin experimentation. It is shown that the numerical simulation takes only a few iteration times and the final errors are small. Furthermore, the calculated results of both the static and dynamic responses agree well with those ones obtained by the model test. It indicates that the efficiency, the precision, the reliability and the validity of the developed numerical algorithm and program are rather good. It is proposed to develop a real-time monitoring system to further monitor the dynamic performance of the FPSO with a soft yoke mooring system under various real sea environments.     

海底双层管单层连接管道结构受力分析

粘性高的海洋石油通常需要通过海底保温管道加温输送.温度变化会引起管道变形,并在管壁内产生较大的温度应力.同时,管道正常运营期间还受到管道内压、外压、管内流体粘滞力和土体摩擦力等环境荷载的作用.复杂的环境可能导致海底管道轴向应力过大发生破坏.为了提高铺管效率,提出了双层管单层连接管道这一特殊管道形式,并从理论上分析温度变化和环境荷载对该管道的影响,计算正常运行时管道不同位置处横截面内最大Von-Mises应力.最后得到了Von-Mises应力沿管道轴线分布情况,发现内管和单层连接管的应力一般比外管大,变径管和内管的焊缝处是Von-Mises应力最大的地方.     

武汉市城乡规划动态监管信息系统的设计与开发

介绍了武汉市城乡动态监管信息系统建设的基本思路和技术构架,分析了系统功能划分、数据库设计、网络与安全体系建设等问题,对遥感技术、GPS技术以及信息资源整合技术在项目建设中的应用进行了讨论。     

Model Test Study on Ice-Induced Vibrations of Compliant Multi-Cone Structures

For the study on the ice-induced vibration of a compliant mono-cone structure,a series of model tests were performed from 2004 to 2006.In these tests,the ice sheet before the compliant conical structure was found to be failed in two-time breaking.Based on this important finding,model tests study of the ice force on a compliant multi-cone structure were performed from 2006 to 2007.in these tests,the ice sheet broke before each single cone non-simultaneously.The exciting energy of the total ice force was found to be in a wide range of frequencies,and the structure can be easily excited with nonlinear resonance.     

Adaptive Predictive Inverse Control of Offshore Jacket Platform Based on Rough Neural Network

The offshore jacket platform is a complex and time-varying nonlinear system,which can be excited of harmful vibration by external loads.It is difficult to obtain an ideal control performance for passive control methods or traditional active control methods based on accurate mathematic model.In this paper,an adaptive inverse control method is proposed on the basis of novel rough neural networks (RNN) to control the harmful vibration of the offshore jacket platform,and the offshore jacket platform model is established by dynamic stiffness matrix (DSM) method.Benefited from the nonlinear processing ability of the neural networks and data interpretation ability of the rough set theory,RNN is utilized to identify the predictive inverse model of the offshore jacket platform system.Then the identified model is used as the adaptive predictive inverse controller to control the harmful vibration caused by wave and wind loads,and to deal with the delay problem caused by signal transmission in the control process.The numerical results show that the constructed novel RNN has advantages such as clear structure,fast training speed and strong error-tolerance ability,and the proposed method based on RNN can effectively control the harmfid vibration of the offshore jacket platform.     

Theoretical Analysis of A Buoyant Jet Interacting with Small Amplitude Waves

A new theoretical solution is presented here for the dynamic characteristics of a buoyant jet due to opposing small amplitude waves.The conservation equations of mass,tangential momentum and vertical momentum are solved by the integral method which encompasses the Gaussian profiles of velocity and density.The action of waves is incorporated into the equations of motion as an external force and a new exact solution is obtained to predict the trajectory,velocity distribution and boundary thickness of the buoyant jet over an arbitrary lateral cross section.It is found that the velocity along the centerline is inversely proportional to the ratio of the momentum of the wave to the buoyant jet.The averaged boundary width varies with the fluctuation of the boundary width,the distance from the orifice and the velocity correction function.Owing to the motion d waves,the fluctuation of the boundary width is proportional to the wave steepness.     

A traversing system to measure bottom boundary layer hydraulic properties

This study describes a new convenient and robust system developed to measure benthic boundary layer properties, with emphasis placed on the determination of bed shear stress and roughness height distribution within estuarine systems by using velocity measurements. This system consisted of a remotely operated motorised traverser that allowed a single ADV to collect data between 0 and 1 m above the bed. As a case study, we applied the proposed traversing system to investigate bottom boundary layer (BBL) hydraulic properties within Coombabah Creek, Queensland, Australia. Four commonly-employed techniques: (1) Log-Profile (LP); (2) Reynolds stress (RS); (3) Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE); and (4) Inertial Dissipation (ID) used to estimate bed shear stresses from velocity measurements were compared. Bed shear stresses estimated with these four methods agreed reasonably well; of these, the LP method was found to be most useful and reliable. Additionally, the LP method permits the calculation of roughness height, which the other three methods do not. An average value of bed shear stress of 0.46 N/m², roughness height of 4.3 mm, and drag coefficient of 0.0054 were observed within Coombabah Creek. Results are consistent with that reported for several other silty bed estuaries.     

Estimation of the wave-related ripple characteristics and induced bed shear stress

A large data set on ripples was collected and examined. A set of new formulas for the prediction of the ripple characteristics is proposed with an emphasis on the disappearance of the ripples. The ripple wavelength was observed to be proportional to the bottom wave excursion but also to be a function of the grain-related Shields parameter and wave period parameter introduced by Mogridge et al. (1994). The ripple steepness was found to be nearly constant for orbital ripples, and with a sharp decrease for suborbital ripples. Two empirical functions are added including the effects of the critical Shields parameters (inception of transport and inception of sheet flow), i.e. giving the boundaries for the ripple existence's domain. The proposed formulas yield better prediction capabilities compared to the previously published formulas, especially when ripples are washed out. The effect of the ripple characteristics on the roughness height and the calculation of the bed shear stress is also discussed. It appeared that the bed shear stress calculation is more sensitive to the empirical coefficient a_r introduced in the estimation of the ripple-induced roughness height or to the limits of existence of the ripples than the ripple characteristics themselves.