Neural dynamic modelling on earthquake magnitude series

Earthquake magnitude prediction is of vital importance for human safety. The earthquake is a very complicated and non-linear dynamic process. It cannot be described adequately by any deterministic models. In this paper a neural dynamic modelling for earthquake magnitude prediction is reported. Historical records of earthquake magnitude series are used to construct the optimal non-linear dynamic model, and the consequent outcome of the earthquake behaviour is then predicted by this model. In turn, the latest recorded data set can be fed back to improve the accuracy of the neural dynamic model. The modelling of experiments of three earthquake magnitude series in China and Japan and their extrapolated predictions are included in this paper. The values predicted by extrapolation are in good agreement with the historical data.     

红赐堡—黄土窑一带孔兹岩系中石榴石的演化史及其地质意义

红赐堡—黄土窑一带早前寒武纪孔兹岩系经历一期麻粒岩相变质作用，并可划分四个变质阶段。各阶段石榴石的分布、形态、矿物组合、化学成分及其成因条件均存在明显差异。通过成因矿物学的系统研究，结合多种地质温压计的估算结果及变质反应实验资料，确定本区孔兹岩系石榴石的结晶生长演化史及变晶变形序列。     

柴达木盆地西部新生代气候与地形演变

从孢粉植物分异及演变，干旱碎屑及膏盐沉积分布等方面，对柴达木盆地西部新生代气候与地形的演变进行了探讨。结果表明，盆地西部新生代两个极端干燥气候期（膏盐发育期）分别出现在始新世至渐新世及上新世至第四纪。前者与老第三纪行星环流控制下的副热带干燥带有关，而后者与青藏高原的隆升有关。早第三纪盆地西部及周围地区的地势不象以前所认为的那么低平。在第三纪，昆仑山比祁连山低。晚新生代盆地向北推移了７－１１个纬距。     

阿尔泰诺尔特地区地层—岩浆—构造轮廓初析

新疆阿尔泰北部诺尔特地区的地质轮廓主要形成于海西期，地层主要由上泥盆统和下石炭统组成，岩石以沉积碎屑岩为主，夹火山碎屑岩和熔岩。沉积厚度较大，并且具粗砂岩、细砂岩和粉砂岩反复出现的韵律特征。诺尔特地区的火山岩为海西早、中期形成，早期形成岩屑、晶屑凝灰岩和英安岩，海西中期形成石英斑岩和凝灰岩，前者以中性为主，后者则偏酸性；在构造分区图上投点表明，前者落在Ａ区，属非造山带火山岩，后者落在Ｂ区，属造山带及岛弧火山岩区；稀土配分型式表明，海西早期火山岩的铕异常明显，海西中期火山岩的铕异常不明显。诺尔特地区花岗岩属海西晚期产物，数量不多，通过ＡＲ─ＳｉＯ２图、Ｋ—Ｎａ─Ｃａ图、ＡＣＦ图等图解的分析表明，它们属碱性岩浆成因的Ｓ型花岗岩，稀土元素配分型式显示花岗岩分界明显，但曲线平缓，分异不彻底。诺尔特地区地质构造演化的基本轮廓：早期是一种类似坳拉谷的环境；中期逐步闭合并抬升；晚期裂谷完全闭合，整个地区露出水面接受剥蚀。     

中国西部地区全新世自然环境演变序列与特征

根据湖泊、山地冰川、黄土与古土壤序列、泥炭及沙漠演变等多种地质记录的综合对比分析，重建和恢复了我国酉部地区全新世以来的自然环境演变序列及特征。全新世期间我国西部地区环境演变存在着以水热配置关系不同为突出特征的两种不同的演变模式：即以新疆北部地区为代表的西风型和以青海湖及青藏高原为代表的季风型模式。其成因同区域性特征及大气环流形势密切相关。并划分出我国西部地区全新世自然环境演变过程中的几个重要时间界线，即距今１２ｋａ或１０ｋａ、９ｋａ、３ｋａ和０．５ｋａ。众多地质记录间良好的对比关系对于深入理解我国西部全新世气候环境的演变过程，预测其变化趋向具有十分重要的意义。     

河北唐山—卢龙地区寒武－奥陶系界线地层的牙形刺及其重要属种的演化

本文对唐山和卢龙地区寒武－奥陶系界线地层中的牙形刺再次进行研究，厘定了过去报道的一些重要属种，并对最具地层意义的Ｃｏｒｄｙｌｏｄｕｓ的几个种的演化进行了分析。指出了该属的两个进化系列，第一支进化系列是Ｅｏｃｏｎｏｄｏｎｔｕｓｎｏｔｃｈｐｅａｋｅｎｓｉｓ－Ｃｏｒｄｙｌｏｄｕｓｐｒｉｍｉｔｉｖｕｓ－Ｃ．ｐｒｏａｖｕｓ－Ｃ．ｃａｂｏｔｉ－Ｃ．ｉｎｔｅｒｍｅｄｉｕｓ－Ｃ．ａｎｇｕｌａｔｕｓ；而另一支则是Ｅｏｃｏｎｏｄｏｎｔｕｓｎｏｔｃｈｐｅａｋｅｎｓｉｓ－Ｃ．ｃａｂｏｔｉ－Ｃ．ｐｒｏｌｉｎｄｓｔｒｏｍｉ－Ｃ．ｌｉｎｄｓｔｒｏｍｉ－Ｃ．ｐｒｉｏｎ。本文对寒武－奥陶系界线的几个划分方案也进行了简单的讨论     

Dynamic stochastic estimation of physical variables

A fundamental problem facing the physical sciences today is analysis of natural variations and mapping of spatiotemporal processes. Detailed maps describing the space/time distribution of groundwater contaminants, atmospheric pollutant deposition processes, rainfall intensity variables, external intermittency functions, etc. are tools whose importance in practical applications cannot be overestimated. Such maps are valuable inputs for numerous applications including, for example, solute transport, storm modeling, turbulent-nonturbulent flow characterization, weather prediction, and human exposure to hazardous substances. The approach considered here uses the spatiotemporal random field theory to study natural space/time variations and derive dynamic stochastic estimates of physical variables. The random field model is constructed in a space/time continuum that explicitly involves both spatial and temporal aspects and provides a rigorous representation of spatiotemporal variabilities and uncertainties. This has considerable advantages as regards analytical investigations of natural processes. The model is used to study natural space/time variations of springwater calcium ion data from the Dyle River catchment area, Belgium. This dataset is characterized by a spatially nonhomogeneous and temporally nonstationary variability that is quantified by random field parameters, such as orders of space/time continuity and random field increments. A rich class of covariance models is determined from the properties of the random field increments. The analysis leads to maps of continuity orders and covariances reflecting space/time calcium ion correlations and trends. Calcium ion estimates and the associated statistical errors are calculated at unmeasured locations/instants over the Dyle region using a space/time kriging algorithm. In practice, the interpretation of the results of the dynamic stochastic analysis should take into consideration the scale effects.     

Comparison of the pseudo-static and dynamic behaviour of gravity retaining walls

Summary Pseudo-static and dynamic non-linear finite element analyses have been performed to assess the dynamic behaviour of gravity retaining walls subjected to horizontal earthquake loading. In the pseudo-static analysis, the peak ground acceleration is converted into a pseudo-static inertia force and applied as a horizontal incremental gravity load. In the dynamic analysis, an actual measured earthquake acceleration time history has been scaled to provide peak ground acceleration values of 0.1 g and 0.3 g. Good agreement is obtained between the pseudo-static analysis and analytical methods for the calculation of the active coefficient of earth pressure. However, the results from the dynamic analysis require careful interpretation. In the pseudo-static analysis, the increase in the point of application of the resultant active force with the horizontal earthquake coefficient k _h from the one-third point to the mid-height of the wall is clearly observed. In the dynamic analysis, the variation in the point of application is shown to be a function of the type of wall deformation. Both finite element analyses indicate the importance of determining the magnitude of the predicted displacements when assessing the behaviour of the wall to seismic loading.     

阿尔泰造山带构造演化研究中的几个关键问题剖析

对阿尔泰山地区的构造格局、构造变质、岩浆岩时代、动力热事件和构造区类型归属等几个地学基础问题进行深入细致研究的基础上，反演了阿尔泰地槽造山带形成和演化的递进历程。