Quantification of contemporary storm-induced boulder transport on an intertidal shore platform using radio frequency identification technology

Extreme storm events are known to produce, entrain, transport and deposit sizable boulders along rocky coastlines. However, the extent to which these processes occur under moderate, fetch-limited wave conditions is seldom considered. In this study we quantify boulder transport at a relatively sheltered location subject to high-frequency, low-magnitude storm activity. This was achieved by deploying radio frequency identification (RFID) tags within 104 intertidal limestone boulders ranging in size from fine to very coarse (intermediate axis: 0.27–2.85 m). The study was conducted over 3 years (July 2015–July 2018) and encompassed numerous storm events. Tagged boulders were relocated during 17 field surveys and their positions recorded using a differential global positioning navigation satellite system (DGNSS). On completion, we identified boulder displacement in 69% of the tagged array. The accrued boulder transport distance amounted to 233.0 m from 195 incidents of displacement, including the movement of a boulder weighing an estimated 11.9 t. Transport was not confined to autumn and winter storms alone, as displacement was also recorded during summer months (April–September), despite the seasonally reduced wave magnitude. Boulder production by wave quarrying was documented in three tagged clasts, confirming observations that the shore platform is actively eroding. Incidents of overturning during transport were also recorded, including multiple overturning of clasts weighing up to 5 t. We further identify a statistically significant difference (maximum p-value ≤ 0.03) between the transport distances attributed to constrained and unconstrained boulders, suggesting that the pre-transport morphological setting exerts considerable control over boulder transport potential. The findings establish low to moderate storm waves as a key component in the evolution of the study site. More broadly, we claim that high-frequency, low-magnitude storms regularly modify these overlooked rocky coastal locations, suggesting that the hydrodynamic capability at such sites may previously have been underestimated. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dust provenance and its role as a potential fertilizing agent for the Okavango Delta,Botswana

Dust plays a globally important role in supplying biologically essential elements to landscapes underlain by nutrient-poor substrates. Here we show that dust may play a significant role in sustaining productivity in the vast wetlands of the Okavango Delta in southern Africa, one of the world's richest biodiversity hotspots. Dust accumulates preferentially on tree-covered islands in the seasonal swamps of the Delta, creating pockets of fine-grained, nutrient-rich material within the semi-arid landscape of the Kalahari Desert. Strontium and neodymium isotopes reveal that this dust likely originates predominantly from the Makgadikgadi salt pans, located 300 km away, and contributes 10–80% of the fine-grained material present in Okavango island soils. Surface material sourced from the Makgadikgadi Pans contains relatively high amounts of bioavailable phosphorus and iron, potentially influencing Okavango Delta biological productivity. We propose that long-term ecosystem productivity and nutrient availability in the Okavango may be strongly mediated by regional dust inputs. Understanding the influence of dust deposition on nutrient loads and biogeochemical cycling is thus critical for predicting the response of the Okavango Delta to future changes in climate. We suggest that dust inputs may play a significant role in the supply of nutrients to other large, global wetland systems located in dryland environments. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

地电暴事件判别方法及特征分析

本文基于我国2015—2018年间地电暴事件,通过对筛选的数据曲线变化特征归纳分析,总结出以下快速准确判断地电暴事件的依据:(1)地电暴发生时,会压制地电场六道观测数据正常日变形态,且变幅是正常日变幅值2倍以上或更大;(2)地电暴事件具有广域同步性,可通过多台观测数据对比判断;(3)地电暴和地磁暴具有同源性,可通过地磁观测来判断;(4)经过上述初判后,还应排除观测系统、自然环境、人为干扰、场地环境事件影响,才能确认为单一地电暴事件。通过对地电暴波形特征的分析,发现一般情况下地电暴变幅与地磁磁情指数—K指数呈正比关系,但是同一台站地电暴变幅在同一K指数下差异较大。不同台站对同一地电暴事件幅度响应不同,仅从变幅来看纬度效应不明显,有局部区域性特点,可能与台站台址条件\,地电场布极方式方位等因素均有关。     

额济纳旗典型地表沙尘释放潜力及沙尘天气频发成因

额济纳旗位于极端干旱的内陆河下游,绿洲退化严重,沙尘天气频发,已成为内蒙古西部主要沙尘源区。为揭示该区域沙尘频繁成因,对区域4种典型地表(富沙砾戈壁、富沙戈壁、绿洲退化地、绿洲)沉积物组分、风蚀强度、沙尘释放强度、多年平均月沙尘日数及大风日数等进行了综合分析。结果表明:以风沙活动为主要特征的绿洲退化地,粉沙黏土组分含量高,PM10沙尘释放强度大(0.2796 kg·d^-1·m^-2),为研究区强沙尘释放地表;富沙及富沙砾戈壁地表,风蚀强度大,但粉沙黏土组分含量低,PM10沙尘释放强度较大(0.1267kg·d^-1·m^-2,0.0672 kg·d^-1·m^-2);尽管绿洲地表粉沙黏土组分含量高,但由于植被、水分等因素的制约,其PM10沙尘释放强度最小(0.0240 kg·d^-1·m^-2)。额济纳旗绿洲被大面积强沙尘释放源(绿洲退化地和戈壁)包围,局地沙尘内循环过程中粉尘颗粒的富积,为当地高频沙尘天气提供了丰富的尘源,这是额济纳旗沙尘天气频发的主要原因。     

滑窗滤波和电离层二次时间差的周跳探测与修复

针对大磁暴条件对周跳探测的影响,该文联合电离层二次时间差以及基于宽巷组合的前后滑动窗口滤波方法进行周跳探测,采用优化的阈值设计算法,对探测出来的周跳立即修复得到实数解,而后取整得到整数周跳,并借鉴验后单位权中误差精度指标用于周跳修复准确性评价,该指标能够有效确保周跳修复的可靠性。实验结果表明,即使在大磁暴条件下,该算法依然能够实现对模拟周跳有效的探测与修复,并且无不敏感周跳。     

Mooring system reliability in tropical cyclone and North Sea winter storm environments

The characteristics of waves, winds and currents in a tropical cyclone environment differ significantly from those in a winter storm environment, like the North Sea. This can have a significant effect on the reliability of a mooring system that is designed to satisfy 100 yr conditions with specified Factors of Safety in accordance with ISO19901-7 or API RP 2SK. This paper presents reliability analysis of the mooring system of a permanently connected Floating LNG vessel, placed at two locations: (a) a tropical cyclone environment of the North West Shelf of Australia and (b) a winter storm environment of the North Sea. It is demonstrated that as a result of differences in the long term distribution of environmental parameters (waves, winds) between a North Sea environment and a tropical cyclone environment, the long term distribution of the mooring line response differs significantly in these two locations.This paper shows that a mooring system which is designed in accordance with ISO (or API), in these two environments, will achieve very different reliability levels because of the significant differences in environmental characteristics. In order to achieve the same reliability for the mooring system at these two geographical locations, Factors of Safety for use with 100 yr environmental conditions (Ultimate Limit State) were derived to achieve the same target probability of failure of 10⁻⁴/annum. It was found that for the North Sea environment, a factor of 1.5 is required for both the mooring chain and the pile, while for the tropical cyclone environment the required Factor of Safety has to be increased to 2.1. These differences are very significant and design standards need to be revised to reflect these findings.     

罗源湾海域台风风暴潮数值模拟研究

本文以福建罗源湾海域为重点研究区域,结合台风风暴潮数值模式,对不同强度、不同方向台风引起的风暴潮增（减） 水规律进行了数值模拟研究。通过对影响罗源湾海域的历史台风分析,确定了影响该区域的两种典型台风路径,即东南-西北移动 （NW-SE） 和南-北移动 （N-S） 路径。文中结果表明：在两种典型路径台风到达罗源湾海域时,罗源湾内的风暴增水达到极值,在超强台风 （中心气压及最大风速：945 hPa,55 km/h） 作用下,NW-SE 和 N-S 路径下增水极值分别为3.9 m 和 3.67 m。随着两种典型台风路径从湾外向湾内平移,湾内不同岸段的风暴增水表现出不同的规律：北岸和西岸增水逐渐增大且在典型台风路径过湾顶向西平移约 15 km 处达到最大;湾内南岸区域增水逐渐减小且在台风路径过湾口向湾外平移约 15 km 处达到最大;湾口站点增水极值随路径平移无明显变化。对于 N-S 典型路径方向,台风中心过罗源湾后有明显减水现象,且越靠近湾内的站点减水程度越大,超强台风作用下湾内西北角站点减水达 2.80m,而 NW-SE 路径的台风风暴减水现象不明显。     

基于多种神经网络的风暴潮增水预测方法的比较分析

简要介绍了利用BP神经网络、小波神经网络、递归神经网络进行风暴潮增水值预测的原理。选取广东省珠江口以南的阳江站2017年风暴潮增水数据进行测试。结果表明,三种神经网络方法针对阳江地区风暴潮增水的预测均具有可靠性和实用性。以当前增水值为输入量的单因子模型更能反映真实风暴潮增水趋势,而从增水极值预测的准确性来看,以台风风力、气压、风向等相关参数为输入量的多因子模型优于单因子模型。BP神经网络更适用于多因子长时间预测,小波神经网络在单因子短时间预测上准确性更高,递归神经网络预测值与实测值相关性更强。在工程运用中,需根据地域时空特点、数据资料的丰富度与预测值评估指标选择合适的方法。     

浪潮耦合的舟山渔港台风暴潮数值模拟

建立能精确模拟舟山渔港台风暴潮过程的浪潮耦合模型,对渔港防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于Delft3D中的FLOW和WAVE模块,在二重嵌套网格下建立风暴潮和波浪的耦合模型。以9711号台风Winnie为背景,验证耦合模型的可靠性,结果显示,风速、天文潮潮位、风暴潮潮位和有效波高的计算值与实测值吻合良好。利用风暴潮模型与耦合模型分别计算了舟山海域的风暴潮,分析了波浪对风暴潮潮位的抬升影响,定海和镇海站最大波浪增水分别为23 cm和34 cm,耦合模型的模拟精度要高于风暴潮模型。通过模拟9711号台风期间舟山渔港的风暴潮过程,分析了风暴潮的时空分布特征,并给出了浪潮耦合作用对于风暴潮时空分布的影响。     

基于ADCIRC+SWAN耦合模型的风暴潮数值模拟研究——以深圳西部海域为例

本文采用ADCIRC和SWAN模式建立了基于非结构网格的深圳海域高分辨率天文潮-风暴潮-海浪耦合数值模型。基于历史统计资料,以1604号台风"妮妲"作为基础路径、以1319号超强台风"天兔"作为设计强度设计了超强台风,计算了超强台风影响下深圳西部海域的最高潮位,结果显示宝安机场、赤湾和深圳湾顶的最高潮位为5.71 m、4.67 m和5.06 m,分别超过当地红色警戒潮位2.69 m、1.65 m和2.98 m。为验证波浪增水作用设计了敏感性实验,结果显示波浪对风暴潮增水的贡献量值约0.1 m。