Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China

In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning.A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability.The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study;the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries,rivers,and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang.Therefore,the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.     

菲律宾海沉积物中石英的来源及其搬运方式

为了识别菲律宾海沉积物中风尘信号和源区,以及沉积物的搬运方式,取菲律宾海沉积物中的石英,系统研究了石英的粒度组成、形貌特征、氧同位素特征和结晶度指数。菲律宾海中远离岛弧和海脊的石英粒度较细,西菲律宾海中石英主要由EM1(众数粒径平均为2.9μm)、EM2(众数粒径平均8.17μm)和EM3(众数粒径平均为21.67μm)三个端元组成,东菲律宾海中主要由EM1和EM2两个端元组成。靠近岛弧和海脊的石英粒度较粗,吕宋岛附近的石英具有众数粒径平均为103μm的EM4端元。EM1端元石英表面有明显的碰撞凹坑, EM2端元石英有溶蚀孔洞, EM3端元石英呈棱角状,表面相对光滑。包含EM1端元的石英的δ18O值和结晶度指数与塔克拉玛干沙漠中相同粒级石英的特征相近,不包含EM1端元的石英的δ18O值和结晶度指数与火山岛弧来源的石英特征相近。综合分析表明,EM1端元的石英为主要来自于塔克拉玛干沙漠的风尘石英,经由盛行西风搬运至太平洋,并由南向或西南向的风搬运,最终在菲律宾海沉积。EM2和EM3端元石英主要来源于太平洋火山岛弧,其中, EM2端元的石英经历了强烈的化学风化,经河流或洋流输送到研究区; EM3端元的石英没有经历长距离运输,可能是附近岩石风化的产物。     

Storm surge simulation along the Meghna estuarine area: an alternative approach

In this study, numerical prediction of surges associated with a storm was made through the method of lines (MOL) in coordination with the newly proposed RKARMS (4, 4) method for the meghna estuarine region, along the coast of Bangladesh. For this purpose, the vertically integrated shallow water equations (SWEs) in Cartesian coordinates were firstly transformed into ordinary differential equations (ODEs) of initial valued, which were then soloved using the new RKARMS (4, 4) method. Nested grid technique was employed for resolving the complexities of the region of interest with minimum cost. Fresh water discharge through the lower Meghna River was taken into account along the north east corner of the innermost child scheme. Numerical experiments were performed with the severe cyclone on April 1991 that crossed the coast over the study area. Simulated results by the study were found to be in good agreement with some reported data and were found to compare well with the results obtained by the MOL in addition with the classical 4th order Runge-Kutta (RK (4, 4)) method and the standard finite difference method (FDM).     

华北盆地南部早二叠世早期聚煤作用的成因机制

华北盆地南部早二叠世早期形成的海陆交替相含煤地层,含有多达30余层煤。这些为数众多的煤层在其形成过程中,受到海水进退和风暴潮2种动力作用的控制。频繁的海水进退,虽然多次为本区的聚煤场所提供了广阔的空间,但未能给滨海沼泽内泥炭物质的持续堆积带来足够的时间。频繁的风暴潮作用对策煤场所既有破坏性又有建设性：风暴上升流可以强烈地侵蚀滨海沼泽的泥炭层,风暴下降流又可将大量的泥炭物质携带到浅海环境再沉积;风暴上升流可以在平缓开阔的潮汐地带上建造成平行海岸线的沙脊,使沙脊靠陆一侧成为新的聚煤场所,下一次较大的风暴上升流又可荡平这些新建立起来的聚煤场所。因此本区的聚煤作用既复杂又特殊。     

A convection-conduction model for analysis of the freeze-thaw conditions in the surrounding rock wall of a tunnel in permafrost regions

The results of simulated tidal current field, wave field and storm-induced current field are employed to interpret the depositional dynamic mechanism of formation and evolution of the radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea door. The anticlockwise rotary tidal wave to the south of Shandong Peninsula meets the following progressive tidal wave from the South Yellow Sea, forming a radial current field outside Jianggang. This current field provides a necessary dynamic condition for the formation and existence of the radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea seafloor. The results of simulated “old current field (holocene)” show that there existed a convergent-divergent tidal zone just outside the palaeo-Yangtze River estuary where a palaeo-underwater accumulation was developed. The calculated results from wave models indicate that the wave impact on the topography, under the condition of high water level and strong winds, is significant. The storm current induced by typhoons landing in the Yangtze River estuary and turning away to the sea can have an obvious influence, too, on the sand ridges. The depmitional dynamic mechanism of formation and evolution of the radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea seafloor is “tidal current-induced formation—storm-induced chang—tidal current-induced recovery”. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49236120).     

河北坝上高原土壤风蚀物垂直分布的初步研究

根据河北坝上高原农田土壤风蚀物的观测与采样分析结果,风蚀物含量随高度的增加,在0~20 cm高度内以指数函数规律递减,反映了以跃移质为主的风沙流结构;在20~100 cm高度内以幂函数规律递减,反映的是悬移质为主的风沙流结构。在风蚀物粒度组成中,随高度增加,砂级颗粒含量减少而粉砂及粘土含量增多;随风速与输沙率的增加,砂级颗粒含量增多而粉砂及粘土含量减少。对风蚀物各粒级含量与高度的相关分析表明:易以迁移形式运动的粒径0.25~0.1 mm土粒百分量以幂函数形式向上递减;沉降速度较低的粒径<0.1 mm土粒百分含量成幂函数形式向上递增。此外,风蚀物平均粒径随高度变细且在50 cm处细于0.1 mm,因此,土壤颗粒成为悬移物质而上升到50 cm以上高度时可能搬运到较远的地区。     

波流耦合作用下渤海及北黄海风暴潮增水及海浪过程的数值模拟

本文基于三维波流耦合FVCOM-SWAVE数值模式,采用Jelesnianski参数化风场与再分析数据集ECMWF风场数据叠加而成的合成风场作为外力驱动力,模拟了1818号"温比亚"台风引起北黄海及渤海海域风暴潮增减水及波浪的生长与消减过程,进而分析该海域在"温比亚"台风作用下波浪对流速垂向分布的影响。研究结果表明:合成风场得到的风速最大值及出现时刻与实测数据符合较好,合成风场较为合理,能够为模拟波流耦合机制下海域水动力变化提供准确的风场条件;几个测站的风暴潮增水模拟结果与实测数据较为吻合,FVCOM-SWAVE耦合系统合理地再现了"温比亚"台风在黄渤海引发的风暴潮增水以及台风浪过程。此外,计算结果显示"温比亚"期间黄渤海海域最大有效波高分布于台风中心外围,且位于台风前进方向上,波浪最大有效波高值与台风强度有关;在台风过境期间,波流相互作用对近岸海域流速的垂向分布具有一定影响,考虑波流相互作用可有效提高台风风暴潮数值模拟精度。研究结果对台风灾害预报、防灾减灾及港口建筑选址具有一定的参考意义。     

磁暴事件简报智能化产品设计

磁暴事件影响日地空间环境,例如：通讯系统、电力系统、输油管道、空间飞行器等均会受到严重影响。磁暴观测是地磁台站的常规业务工作,结合地震行业发展规划,考虑其他行业对磁暴数据指数的需求,基于Datist数据专家程序设计磁暴事件智能化系统,可在磁暴发生后快速、及时、准确地推送详细指数,根据不同用户需求,以专业磁暴简报产品报告形式进行输出,为用户开展事件分析和深入研究提供基础数据。     

基于陆态网络GNSS数据的2013年和2015年磁暴期间中国地区电离层特性研究

2013年3月和2015年3月爆发了2次相似的地磁暴,引起了全球不同地区电离层的变化。本文利用中国大陆构造环境监测网络260余个基准站在中国地区的GNSS电离层TEC观测数据,结合电离层测高仪和电离层甚高频相干散射雷达观测,对2次磁暴期间中国地区的电离层变化特性进行了对比分析。结果显示,2013年3月磁暴期间,中国不同地区电离层变化较弱或不明显,而2015年3月磁暴期间中国地区电离层变化整体表现为大范围的强负相暴,中国地区不同程度的电离层响应主要受到不同的磁暴强度和磁暴期间不同的能量输入影响。2次磁暴期间电离层F层不均匀体的发生受到不同程度的影响,可能由不同种类的暴时电场导致。陆态网络数据空间覆盖范围广、时间分辨率高,在研究中国地区磁暴期间的电离层变化特性方面具有优势。     

利用大地电磁站间阻抗估算磁暴引起的大地电场

由磁暴引起的地下感应电场(geomagnetic induction electric field,GIE)会影响电网的安全稳定运行,GIE的大小取决于磁暴时磁场的变化率和周围地下介质的电性结构.本文利用在地表观测的磁场与电场数据,首先求得频率域实际地下三维大地电磁站间阻抗,再结合磁暴时段的磁场数据,计算GIE的频谱,最后通过傅里叶反变换,得到GIE时间序列.本文以日本地区三个长期观测的电磁电台站为例,讨论了站间阻抗的长期稳定性,并选取一次典型的磁暴事件,对本文方法进行了验证.结果表明,合成的GIE与实测数据基本一致,说明利用大地电磁站间阻抗,结合地磁台站数据,可以高精度合成GIE.本文方法有助于定量评价磁暴发生时产生的GIE对电网可能造成的破坏作用.