EXPERIMENTS TO TRACK STORMS USING MODERN OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHMS

Storm identification and tracking based on weather radar data are essential to nowcasting and severe weather warning. A new two-dimensional storm identification method simultaneously seeking in two directions is proposed, and identification results are used to discuss storm tracking algorithms. Three modern optimization algorithms (simulated annealing algorithm, genetic algorithm and ant colony algorithm) are tested to match storms in successive time intervals. Preliminary results indicate that the simulated annealing algorithm and ant colony algorithm are effective and have intuitionally adjustable parameters, whereas the genetic algorithm is unsatisfactorily constrained by the mode of genetic operations. Experiments provide not only the feasibility and characteristics of storm tracking with modern optimization algorithms, but also references for studies and applications in relevant fields.     

Three-dimensional variational data assimilation of WindSat ocean surface winds for the genesis and forecasting of tropical storm Henri

With available high-resolution ocean surface wind vectors retrieved from the U.S. Naval Research Laboratorys WindSat on Coriolis, the impact of these data on genesis and forecasting of tropical storm Henri is examined using the non-hydrostatic, fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) of Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research plus its newly released three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system. It is shown that the assimilation of the WindSat-retrieved ocean surface wind vectors in the 3DVAR system improves the model initialization fields by introducing a stronger vortex in the lower troposphere. As a result, the model reproduces the storm formation and track reasonably close to the observations. Compared to the experiment without the WindSat surface winds, the WindSat assimilation reduced an error between the model simulated track and observations of more than 80 km and also improved the storm intensity by nearly 2 hPa. It suggests that these data could provide early detection and prediction of tropical storms or hurricanes.     

Relationship between East Asian Monsoon and Dust Weather Frequency over Beijing

The relationship between dust weather frequency (DWF), which denotes thenumber of days of dust weather events, over Beijing and the East AsianMonsoon (EAM) was studied using DWF data for Beijing during the period1951--2006. Results show that, during this period, the blowing-dust weatherfrequency (BDWF), as well as the indices of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), all decreased considerably, with at-test confidence level of 99%. The correlation coefficients between thechosen EAWM index and BDWF over Beijing in winter and the following springwere 0.34 and 0.33, respectively, with significance levels of 0.01 and 0.02,respectively. For the chosen EASM index and BDWF, these correlationcoefficients were 0.51 and 0.45, respectively, with both at a confidencelevel exceeding 99.9%. With the linear trends removed, the values (in thesame order as above) were 0.14, 0.14, -0.12, and -0.09, all not significantat the 95% confidence level. Clearly, the EAM relates mainly to DWF overlong timescales. To a certain extent, the EAM might have some impact on DWFby affecting the associated surface air temperature and precipitation duringthe corresponding time period in sand-dust source regions at the interannualscale. A stronger (weaker) EAWM might advance (suppress) the occurrence ofDWF, and the opposite for the EASM.     

沙尘暴垂直输运的两相流理论Ⅱ：气柱挟卷模式

为了改进气块法对沙尘沉降问题的研究,文中利用气柱法,考虑沙尘气体与环境的交换作用以及气柱内湍流交换作用.计算结果表明,均匀场中有利于沉降的条件为较大的初始沙尘浓度扰动与较小的初始温度扰动,而且温度扩散系数越大越有利于沙尘沉降,沙尘浓度扩散系数越大越不利于沙尘沉降,湍流过程在均匀场中对沙尘沉降影响不大.考虑剑更真实的环境场,得出在环境的垂直沙尘浓度梯度与温度梯度的参数域中,初始沙尘扰动越大越有利于沙尘沉降,初始温度扰动越大,越小利于沙尘沉降.同时给出4种不利于沙尘沉降的过程:(1)上升浓度变化过程;(2)下沉浓度变化过程;(3)上升温度变化过程;(4)下沉温度变化过程.根据这些过程分析参数对沙尘沉降的影响得到:温度扩散系数越大越有利沙尘沉降;沙尘浓度扩散系数越大不利十沙尘沉降;垂直温度湍流交换系数越大有利于缓降区甚至是非沉降区的上升;垂直沙尘浓度湍流交换系数越大越有利于沙尘沉降.     

河西走廊盛夏一次强沙尘暴天气综合分析

利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP／NCAR月平均再分析资料,对2003年7月20日甘肃河西走廊一次历史上少见的区域性夏季沙尘暴天气进行了分析。研究发现：高空小槽、切变线、热低压是引发夏季沙尘暴的主要天气系统。夏季沙尘暴发生过程中,各测站出现了气压跃升、风速猛增、气温下降、湿度增加等现象,但变化幅度小于春季。夏季沙尘暴云图特征表现为中小尺度云团,TBB≤-35℃的云团在一定程度上能够反映沙尘暴天气的变化。诊断分析表明,沙尘暴爆发前散度场呈低层辐合高层辐散状态,沙尘暴发生在最大垂直速度出现以后,同时水平螺旋度对夏季沙尘暴预报有较好的指示意义,螺旋度正值越大,沙尘暴越强。     

Compositions and source apportionments of atmospheric aerosol during Asian dust storm and local pollution in central Taiwan

A study has been carried out on water soluble ions, trace elements, as well as PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10 elemental and organic carbon samples collected daily from Central Taiwan over a one year period in 2005. A source apportionment study was performed, employing a Gaussian trajectory transfer coefficient model (GTx) to the results from 141 sets of PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10 samples. Two different types of PM₁₀ episodes, local pollution (LOP) and Asian dust storm (ADS) were observed in this study. The results revealed that relative high concentrations of secondary aerosols (NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻ and NH₄⁺) and the elements Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As were observed in PM_2.5 during LOP periods. However, sea salt species (Na⁺ and Cl⁻) and crustal elements (e.g., Al, Fe, Mg, K, Ca and Ti) of PM_2.5–10 showed a sharp increase during ADS periods. Anthropogenic source metals, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb and As, as well as coarse nitrate also increased with ADS episodes. Moreover, reconstruction of aerosol compositions revealed that soil of PM_2.5–10 elevated approximately 12–14% in ADS periods than LOP and Clear periods. A significantly high ratio of non-sea salt sulfate to elemental carbon (NSS-SO₄²⁻/EC) of PM_2.5–10 during ADS periods was associated with higher concentrations of non-sea-salt sulfates from the industrial regions of China. Source apportionment analysis showed that 39% of PM₁₀, 25% of PM_2.5, 50% of PM_2.5–10, 42% of sulfate and 30% of nitrate were attributable to the long range transport during ADS periods, respectively.     

黑河地区大气沙尘对地面辐射能收支的影响

利用１９９１年２月下旬至５月中旬ＨＥＩＦＥ张掖绿洲和沙漠站大气浑浊度观测和地面辐射平衡各个分量观测资料,分析和估算了大气沙尘对地面辐射能收支的影响,晴天大气透过率和达地面的短波辐射与大气浑浊度系数有产好的负相关,大气军浊系数增大时透过率和地面总辐射减少,大气浑浊度系数增大０．１,地面总辐射减少１．３％～１．９％,４月大气浑浊度由０．１增大到０．６,正午时刻地面总辐射减少６７．６～８５．８Ｗ／ｍ＾２     

Storm流式技术在地面气象数据处理中的应用

地面自动站气象数据的量级、观测传输频次日益增长,传输方式从传统的文本方式发展到消息传输,对数据处理时效有了更高的要求。该文提出采用Storm流式技术进行地面自动站气象数据的解码和入库,使用Spout节点连接外部数据源,将数据转化为Tuple,传递给解码Bolt、入库Bolt和DI/EI消息Bolt,分别进行实时的入库和监控,且达到灵活调整系统资源的目的。该应用与传统的简约流程对比,稳定性、处理效率、拓展性都有了显著提高。     

2003年10月风暴潮的形成及数值模拟分析

2003年10月11日发生在河北省中南部地区的特大暴雨是京津冀近50年来同期所罕见的,同时渤海湾还出现了风暴潮过程.对该过程应用非静力MM5的二重网格双向嵌套进行了全物理过程的数值模拟,并应用天津市多普勒雷达资料和常规气象资料进行了分析研究.结果表明：（1）MM5模式能够较好地模拟出风场、气压场、降水量场,在预报业务实践中有很好地参考价值;（2）海面偏东风的长时间维持,使海水堆积、海平面抬高,加上天文大潮的叠加而引发风暴潮;（3）风暴潮期间速度方位风廓线近地面的E-NE风随时间有增厚现象,在增厚的同时使降水减小,风暴潮发生.     

MESOSCALE ANALYSIS OF YUNNAN SUCCESSIVE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AROUSED BY THE STORM OVER THE BAY IN EARLY SUMMER

By using regular meteorological data, physical quantity fields, satellite pictures and Doppler radar echo data, we analyze the mesoscale features and the conditions of 4 successive heavy precipitation processes in Yunnan aroused by the storm over the Bay in the early summer. The results show that the life of the storm over the Bay is usual 2 or 3 days and the cloud top temperature of the storm is always below -65°C. The storm over the Bay affects Yunnan by mesoscale convective cloud clusters, cloud system in peripheral or weaken itself moving to the northeast. The Tibetan Plateau shear lines and vortexes, NE-SW convergence channels and southwest wind convergence supply favorable circulation background and dynamical conditions. There are many common features about Doppler radar echoes, the flocculent echoes with intensity about 35-45 dBZ move to the east to produce successive precipitation in Yunnan, and the mesoscale features of southwest jet and wind veering with altitude not only are favorable to transport warm and moist airflow brought to the north by the storm over the Bay, but also are favorable to convective development.