用树木年轮重建伊犁南天山北坡西部的降水量序列

根据采自伊犁地区南天山北坡11个采点的树木年轮样本,建立了每个采点的3种年表。通过单相关普查发现,标准化树轮年表序列与当年1~5月的降水显著相关。分析表明该时段降水与树木年轮生长呈正相关具有明确的树木生理学意义。利用新源上限(XNAUt)、昭苏上限(ZUt、ZUt 2)和特克斯下限(TLt)4个标准化树轮年表序列可较好地重建该区域在该时段的降水量。经交叉检验,所得重建方程是稳定可靠的,重建的降水序列是可信的。通过分析发现:伊犁地区南天山北坡300年以来1~5月的降水大致经历了6个偏湿阶段和6个偏干阶段;有2.0~2.8年、24.8年、28.3年、33年、99年的变化准周期;在1909年发生由多向少的突变;1740年、1870年发生由少向多的突变,其中又以1870年前后的突变最为明显。     

气温变化对西峰黄土高原地温与梨树发育期的影响

用西北地区140站1961-2000年的气温资料和西峰黄土高原1971-2005年5,10,15,20cm地温和1984-2005年梨树发育期资料,分析了西北地区春季、夏季、秋季、冬季和年气温的变化事实,再用相关计算和典型年份对比,分析了地温的时间变化规律及其对梨树发育期的影响。结果表明,西北地区20世纪60年代冬季增温,其余降温,70年代均降温,80年代冬季增温,其余降温,90年代均增温,冬季的最明显。西峰10cm地温各季节呈持续升高的趋势,春季增温最明显为0.058℃/a,变幅也最大,冬季增温幅度次之为0.039℃/a,再是秋季为0.032℃/a,夏季增温幅度最小为0.029℃/a,上升趋势均通过0.05和0.01的信度检验。冬季、春季地温与梨树的各发育期均为负相关,即地温高,发育期早,地温低,发育期迟。冬季地温与梨树发育期相关最显著的是叶变始期和开花始期,相关系数为-0.41～-0.52,信度为0.05,春季地温与之相关最显著的是开花始期,相关系数为-0.68～-0.69,信度达0.001。春季地温对梨树发育期的影响具有明显的持续性和滞后性,冬季地温对梨树发育期影响有阶段性,春季地温对梨树发育期的影响比冬季的明显。     

1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征

基于1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期降水量、雨日、日照时数、相对湿度等逐日气象资料,应用统计分析和小波分析方法,分析椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征及其大气环流背景.结果表明:1951—2018年衢州椪柑采摘期连阴雨日数、次数和强度呈略微增加趋势、滑动3d无雨次数呈减少趋势;滑动3d无雨次数存在明显的5a、7a和15a...     

1961—2017年北疆初终霜日及霜期时空变化特征

利用1961—2017年北疆37个地面气象站逐日最低气温观测资料,结合常规气象统计方法,分析北疆地区初、终霜日和霜期的时空演变特征.结果表明:(1)北疆平均初霜日以2.2 d·(10a)-1速率推迟;平均终霜日以1.7 d·(10a)-1速率提前;平均霜期以3.9 d·(10a)-1速率缩短;初、终霜日和霜期的主周期均...     

Large-scale dune erosion tests to study the influence of wave periods

Large-scale physical model tests were performed to quantify the effects of the wave period on dune erosion. Attention was focussed on 2D cross-shore effects in a situation with sandy dunes and extreme water levels and wave conditions. Besides profile measurements, detailed measurements in time and space of water pressure, flow velocities and sediment concentrations were performed in the near near-shore area. It was concluded that a longer wave period leads to a larger dune erosion volume and to a larger landward retreat of the dune face. Tests with double-peaked wave spectra showed that the influence of the spectral shape on dune erosion was best represented by the T_m − 1,0 spectral mean wave period, better than the peak wave period, T_p. The effect of the wave period on dune erosion was implemented in a dune erosion prediction method that estimates erosion volumes during normative storm conditions for the Dutch coast. More details of the measurements and additional analyses of physical processes are described in an accompanying paper by Van Thiel de Vries et al. [Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M., van Gent, M.R.A., Reniers, A.J.H.M. and Walstra, D.J.R., submitted for publication. Analysis of dune erosion processes in large scale flume experiments, In this volume of Coastal Engineering.].     

汕尾风暴潮频率与海堤改造初探

通过研究1970-2005年间汕尾港遭受风暴潮袭击的程度,对汕尾港风暴潮增水情况进行分析,用Pearson-Ⅲ分布和Gumbel分布两种概率统计方法分别对汕尾港不同重现期潮位值进行推算,并以此为基础结合走访相关单位和实地踏勘收集汕尾海堤历史和现状资料、风暴潮频率和海平面变化情况等,运用海堤工程设计防潮相关标准探讨汕尾已建海堤存在的问题,并针对性地提出改造建议,为汕尾市海堤的修复加固和管理提供参考.     

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Correspondence Between Astronomical Periods and Sedimentary Cycles

The term of geological cycle was used firstly inHutton's" The Earth Theory" in 1788 (Williams,1980). The geological cycles including tectonic cycles and sedimentary cycles have been describedwidely since than. Some researchers have perceivedthat the geolo…     

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。     

Transition Periods Between Sea Ice Concentration and Sea Surface Air Temperature in the Arctic Revealed by an Abnormal Running Correlation

This study used the synthetic running correlation coefficient calculation method to calculate the running correlation coefficients between the daily sea ice concentration(SIC) and sea surface air temperature(SSAT) in the Beaufort-Chukchi-East Siberian-Laptev Sea(BCEL Sea), Kara Sea and southern Chukchi Sea, with an aim to understand and measure the seasonally occurring changes in the Arctic climate system. The similarities and differences among these three regions were also discussed. There are periods in spring and autumn when the changes in SIC and SSAT are not synchronized, which is a result of the seasonally occurring variation in the climate system. These periods are referred to as transition periods. Spring transition periods can be found in all three regions, and the start and end dates of these periods have advancing trends. The multiyear average duration of the spring transition periods in the BCEL Sea, Kara Sea and southern Chukchi Sea is 74 days, 57 days and 34 days, respectively. In autumn, transition periods exist in only the southern Chukchi Sea, with a multiyear average duration of only 16 days. Moreover, in the Kara Sea, positive correlation events can be found in some years, which are caused by weather time scale processes.