1960-2018年中国西南地区旱涝急转的时空变化特征

基于 1960—2018 年的逐日降水观测数据,采用日尺度旱涝急转指数（DWAAI）计算方法,以生态地理区为框架,识别并分析了西南地区旱涝急转事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：西南地区旱涝急转事件的发生次数在 1960—2010年有增加趋势,在 2011—2018 年快速减少;旱转涝事件多发生在春夏季（4~8 月）,涝转旱事件则跨越了春、夏、秋季（5~11 月）;在云南高原常绿阔叶林、松林区（VA5）,西双版纳山地季雨林、雨林区（VIIA3）,闽粤桂低山平原常绿阔叶林、人工植被区（VIA2）,旱涝急转事件主要发生在夏季,而在湘黔高原山地常绿阔叶林区（VA3）和四川盆地常绿阔叶林、人工植被区（VA4）,旱涝急转事件主要发生在春季;旱涝急转事件发生次数的空间分布呈现东北多、西南少的格局;2000 年以来旱涝急转事件在滇中南亚高山谷地常绿阔叶林、松林区（VIA3）和闽粤桂低山平原常绿阔叶林、人工植被区（VIA2）发生次数减少,但有加重趋势,呈现极端化特征。     

新疆洪灾时间序列突变及其气候原因分析

利用统计方法对新疆农田洪灾成灾面积和洪灾次数时间序列进行了非参数突变检验, 发现新疆农田洪灾成灾面积和洪灾次数时间序列在1980年代中后期发生了明显的突变.突变现象在洪灾直接经济损失上也有明显表现, 主要表现为洪灾直接经济损失在1980年代中后期出现了明显的差异, 即1980年代中后期以前损失较低, 之后急剧增大.在分析了洪灾序列和降水序列的相关关系的基础上, 认为1980年代中后期新疆洪灾损失突变的主要原因之一是此时期新疆气候发生了由干到湿的转折.     

新疆喀什地区沙尘暴天气的时空分布特征及防治措施

以喀什地区11个气象观测站1961-2010年的沙尘暴天气资料为研究对象,采用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势统计检验方法、Surfer软件,对喀什地区沙尘暴变化趋势、空间分布和突变变化进行分析。结果表明：喀什地区沙尘暴高发区出现在偏南区域,年平均高于10d的区域自南向北排列;年际变化呈现出波动性减少趋势,减少幅度分别为：喀什市-2.3d·（10a）^-1、岳普湖-2.7d·（10a）^-1、英吉沙-5.0d·（10a）^-1、巴楚-3.9d·（10a）^-1、麦盖提-4.2d·（10a）^-1、叶城-4。7d·（10a）^-1、莎车-3.5d·（10a）^-1、泽普-1.7d·（10a）^-1、伽师-1.8d·（10a）^-1、塔县-0.3d·（10a）^-1,各站点沙尘暴日数年际差异较大;沙尘暴的多发年代在20世纪60和70年代,进入90年代后沙尘暴的发生明显减少;喀什地区沙尘暴一年中主要出现在春季和夏季（3-8月）,秋季和冬季较少;沙尘暴高发期在4-7月,占总日数的79.2%;全年中出现沙尘暴最少的月份是11月、12月、1月,只占总日数的2.54%。20世纪80年代喀什地区沙尘暴普遍出现突变性减少。为了减轻沙尘暴的危害首先要加强环境的保护,控制人口增长,减少环境压力,此外还应增加地表植被覆盖,加强水土资源管理,建立和完善沙尘天气的动态监测、预警系统,做好防灾减灾的科学研究工作。     

辽宁区域性冷空气多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子

使用辽宁省58个气象观测站1961年9月-2015年4月气温资料、国家气候中心气候监测指数和NCEP分析资料,分析了辽宁区域性冷空气的多时间尺度变化特征及影响因子.结果表明：辽宁区域性强冷空气、寒潮年总频次都呈下降趋势,而中等强度冷空气年总频次呈上升趋势,冷空气强度有减弱的趋势.区域性冷空气过程年总频次存在11a、6a和3a的变化周期,并且1964年发生突变.秋季冷空气活动最频繁,冬季冷空气强度最强.区域性冷空气初日多年平均值是9月23日,终日多年平均是4月5日,初、终日都出现提前趋势.北半球极涡面积指数与辽宁寒潮频次呈明显正相关关系,寒潮偏多月份极涡较气候平均位置偏南、50°N附近70°～180°E之间纬向风明显偏大,是辽宁寒潮增多的影响因子.     

基于CI指数和K指数的近40a贵州安顺区域干旱演变特征

利用综合气象干旱指数(CI指数)和K干旱指数, 对贵州安顺地区1971-2011年41 a来气象干旱的时空分布状况、演变特征及突变情况进行了比较分析. 结果表明: 对严重的干旱时段, 两种指数均能表现出来, 对历年干旱过程及灾害的评定结果基本一致;CI指数对干旱的评定更为精细, 但K指数延续性更好;分季节的干旱分析中, 两种指数对于夏季出现干旱概率较小的结论一致, 对各季节平均干旱长度的评判基本一致. 对时间演变的线性变化趋势以及M-K检验结果对比分析表明, 春季和秋季干旱强度增强、夏季干旱强度减弱、年度平均干旱长度及春、秋季干旱长度增加的这几个趋势, 两种方法两种指数结果一致, 结论被认为是可信度较高的. M-K曲线检测表明: 年度干旱长度在2008年后为增加的趋势, 20世纪90年代以来春季干旱强度增强, 20世纪末以来夏季干旱强度趋于减轻, 秋季干旱强度增强, 1970年代中期后春季干旱长度有增加的趋势, 秋季干旱长度在20世纪80年代中期到90年代后增加的趋势可能发生了突变. 年度干旱强度存在12~14 a的长周期和年度干旱长度4~6a的短周期较为可信.     

Laboratory investigation of disintegration characteristics of purple mudstone under different hydrothermal conditions

Disintegration of rock is one of the primary processes of soil formation and geomorphology and is affected considerably by water and heat.This study focused on the disintegration characteristics under laboratory conditions of typical purple mudstone from the Tuodian group of Jurassic red beds(J3t) in Tuodian Town,Shuangbai county,Yunnan Province of southern China.The fresh mudstone was subjected to alternating applications of water,heat and hydrothermal interaction during five treatments:wetting-drying(WD),saturation(ST),refrigeration-heating(RH),a combination of wetting-drying and refrigeration-heating(WDRH),and a combination of saturation and refrigeration-heating(STRH).Each treatment was run in twenty-four cycles.The results showed that there are three types of disintegration:collapsing disintegration,exfoliation disintegration and imperceptible disintegration.The cumulative disintegration rate(percentage of cumulative disintegrated mass to the initiative sample mass passed through a 2 mm sieve) produced a ’S’-shape function when related to treatment cycle time and closely fit a logistic model(R2 > 0.99).The rank order of the cumulative disintegration rate resulting from the five treatments was as the following:WDRH > STRH > ST > WD > RH.Because of alternating periods of moisture and dryness,WD caused the most disintegration,while RH alone resulted in imperceptible disintegration.Additionally,there was a negative correlation between the disintegration rate of each treatment cycle(percentage of disintegrated mass to the treated sample mass) and treatment cycle number.There was a positive correlation between this rate and temperature change under moist conditions,indicating that a change in temperature greatly accelerates the disintegration of parent rock when water was supplied.     

Characteristics of annual runoff variation in major rivers of China

The statistical properties of annual runoff in major rivers of China are studied based on the theory of stochastic process and technology of time series analysis. These properties include the characteristics of intra‐annual and inter‐annual variations of runoff, trends, abrupt changes and periodicities. The new findings from the intensive calculations and appropriate analysis of data in longer period are as follows: (i) compared with the nonuniformity of intra‐annual runoff before 1980, the nonuniformity of intra‐annual runoff in China generally decreased after 1980, except for Huaihe River and Songhua River; (ii) compared with the annual runoff before 1980, the annual runoff in China generally decreased after 1980 except for WangJiaba station in Huaihe River and Ha‐Erbin station in Songhua River; the frequency of continuous low flow and continuous high flow in Haihe River and the downstream of Yellow River is higher than those in other rivers in China; (iii) annual runoff shows a downward trend in major rivers of China especially in Haihe River, Liao River and the midstream and downstream of Yellow River; (iv) there exist certain abrupt changes of annual runoff in major rivers of China; the abrupt change‐points are different among different river basins; and (v) almost periodicities of annual runoff sequences in major rivers of China are generally 20 years below, that is, 3~7 and 12~20 years. The reasons for these changes are mainly caused by climate change and human activities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decadal‐scale gravel beach evolution on a tectonically‐uplifting coast: Wellington,New Zealand

Uplift of the shoreline in tectonically‐active areas can have a profound influence on geomorphology changing the entire process dynamics of the coast as the landforms are removed from the influence of the sea. Over decadal timescales it is possible for the landforms to return to their pre‐earthquake condition and this paper examines the re‐establishment of mixed sand and gravel beaches on the coast of Wellington, New Zealand, subsequent to an uplift event in 1855. Over 60 topographic profiles were surveyed, seven sets of aerial photographs from a 67 year period were mapped and sediment size analyses conducted in order to quantify the nature of beach change following uplift, and associated relative sea level fall. These data were supported by surveys using ground penetrating radar. It is found that uplift raised the gravel beaches out of the swash zone thereby removing them from the littoral zone. Intertidal rocky reefs which occur between each embayment were also uplifted during the same event and completely interrupted the longshore transport system. Continued input of gravel material to the littoral zone allowed beaches to re‐establish sequentially along the coast as each embayment was infilled with sediment. This reconnection of the embayments with the longshore drift system is associated with the beach planform being initially drift dominated during infill but then switching to swash alignment once the embayment becomes infilled. This has resulted in shoreline accretion of over 100 m in some places, at rates of up to 4 m/yr, covering shore protection works built in the past few decades. The ability of the shore to adjust back to its pre‐uplift condition appears to be a function of the accommodation space created during uplift and the rate of sediment supply. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东疆北部全新世气候不稳定性的湖泊沉积记录

对新疆东疆北部巴里坤湖2.5 m深的沉积剖面进行了年代学、沉积物粒度、TOC、磁化率和CaCO₃含量分析,对比研究确定了巴里坤湖的碳库年龄约为750 a,据此建立了研究剖面的年代序列。研究表明,各气候代用指标序列揭示了巴里坤湖地区全新世期间存在多次干湿气候波动,并伴随着一系列突发气候事件,其中有6次事件可以与全新世北大西洋浮冰碎屑事件及GISP2冰芯氧同位素记录进行良好对比,且呈现出显著约1.6 ka的变化周期,表明高纬度北大西洋地区的气候变化可能通过对西风环流的影响与中国西北干旱区的气候变化密切相关。谱分析揭示出研究区气候变化还具有显著的200 a,133 a,108 a和77 a周期,可能与太阳活动周期有关。6300—5200 cal a BP和4300—3500 cal a BP期间巴里坤湖地区气候较为干旱,结合广泛的区域对比认为,中全新世干旱事件具有普遍性。     

华北地区降水多时间尺度演变特征

华北地区的水资源短缺及相关的生态环境恶化是中国亟待解决的问题之一。降水是水资源最重要的因素,根据华北地区25个测站的长期年降水量资料和15个测站历史旱涝资料,利用Mann-Kendall检验、功率谱和小波变换等方法进行的分析研究表明,华北地区的降水存在明显的准2 a振荡和准19 a周期变化特征,降水在1914和1964年发生了两次突变。历史旱涝等级时间序列有明显的4～5 a ENSO模的振荡、准10 a变化、准20 a变化和50～80 a世纪尺度特征。