乌兰布和沙漠晚第四纪以来环境演化研究进展

乌兰布和沙漠晚第四纪以来环境演化呈现湖泊与沙漠多次反复的更替模式,湖相层与松散风成砂层迭覆出现.湖泊发育时间段为120-90 ka、60-50 ka、40-20 ka和8-5.5 ka;沙漠扩展时间段为150-130 ka、90-60 ka、50-40 ka、20-10 ka和5.5 ka--近现代时期.由于时空尺度差...     

新疆洪旱灾害与大尺度气候强迫因子的联系

通过对新疆洪灾灾害历史资料和太阳黑子、ENSO事件年数据以及北大西洋涛动指数的分析,表明在太阳黑子极低值年或不活跃年,新疆易发生重大洪灾,而在太阳黑子低值年或相对不活跃年,新疆也易发生重大旱灾。近200a来,新疆重大洪旱灾害绝大部分都发生在太阳黑子的低谷时期。ENSO事件对新疆夏季降水的影响效应明显。因而该事件对新疆的洪旱灾害也产生了影响。对近50年来灾害统计资料分析显示,与拉尼娜年相比,在厄尔尼诺年新疆更易发生洪旱灾害。20世纪后半段新疆洪旱灾害指数与北大西洋涛动指数进行对比可以发现．夏季NAO指数与新疆洪水灾害之间存在大致上的反相关系。而冬季NAO指数与新疆干旱灾害之间存在比较明显的反相关系。     

近50年云南区域气候变化特征分析

利用云南气温和降水资料, 分析了云南气候变化特征及强降水极端天气和高温干旱事件对全球气候变暖的响应。以云南香格里拉、西双版纳、昆明地区为代表, 分析了区域气象要素变化趋势。结果表明: 云南近50 年气温变化与全球、北半球、中国变化趋势基本一致, 气温变化幅度略大于全球, 弱于北半球和全国变化。云南20 世纪80 年代中后期以后出现增暖现象, 以90 年代后期增温最明显, 1986 年以来出现13 年暖冬, 大部分地区冬春季降霜日数减少。随气候变暖, 香格里拉地区降雪日数呈下降趋势, 西双版纳地区雾日明显减少, 全省降雨日数逐渐减少, 大雨频率变化不大, 暴雨、大暴雨频率上升, 高温干旱事件频率增加。进入21 世纪以后, 云南降水减少, 高温干旱事件有增强增多趋势, 由2～3 年一遇变为1～2 年一遇。2005 年春夏连旱和2006 年春旱是云南近50 年和20 年来最严重的旱灾。     

Drought characteristics of Henan province in 1961-2013 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study, the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has occurred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has increased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, ~26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966–1968, 1998–2000, and 2011–2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Niño effect.     

政府调控对华北平原农户抗旱行为的影响及效应

气候变化背景下干旱等极端天气事件频发给农业生产带来巨大挑战,明确农户是否采取相关应对措施及政府对其采取措施的影响,是进一步完善相关政策和引导农户增强自身响应能力建设的基础和关键。以华北平原为例,基于农户问卷调查数据,运用计量经济学方法,分析气候变化导致干旱频发背景下微观农户的响应行为,评估政府预警和政策支持是否影响农户响应行为以及其他因素如何影响其响应行为。结果表明：① 农户响应干旱态度积极,随干旱程度加深,农户选择采取响应措施的可能性增大。② 政府调控影响农户响应行为,但仅部分调控手段效果显著。政府提供预警信息能增加农户采取响应措施的可能性,然而只有当灾前及灾中、灾后同时预警时效果才显著;电视是目前最主要的预警媒介,但其并不显著改变农户响应行为,通过两种及以上形式的媒介传播预警信息效果最显著。此外,政府（尤其是乡镇及村级机构）的政策支持对农户旱灾响应行为有一定影响,但其效果在灾害年不如正常年明显;资金补贴的调控手段能明显促进农户采取响应措施的积极性,但绝大多数农户未获得任何机构支持。政府调控的结构及力度均有待提升及完善。③ 不同特质农户的响应行为不同。灌区内的农户,家庭耕地细碎度越小的农户,家庭农业成员越多的农户,更倾向于采取响应措施。本研究可为干旱化背景下制定相关调控政策提供科学参考。     

干旱程度对C3植物红砂和C4植物珍珠光合生理参数的影响

 C3和C4植物混生在草地生态系统中较多,而在荒漠生态系统少见。在中国荒漠地区,C3小灌木红砂和C4半灌木珍珠在特定生境下混生在一起,以独特方式适应高温强光和干旱的极端环境。通过在不同干旱程度下测定它们生长期叶片的光合气体交换参数,探讨它们在混生条件下对极端环境的生理响应特征。结果表明,红砂的净光合速率(Pn)、蒸腾速率(E)、气孔导度(Gs)均要高于珍珠;而珍珠的水分利用效率(WUE)则要高于红砂。这表明珍珠和红砂在水分匮乏的荒漠生境下采取了不同的生存策略。红砂通过维持较高净光合速率和较高蒸腾速率来生存;而珍珠则通过高水分利用效率生存。     

Characterization of drought in the Kerio Valley Basin,Kenya using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1960−2016

The Kerio Valley basin in Kenya has undergone several periods of drought, yet drought patterns in the region are not well understood due to limited climatic data. Drought events in the region have resulted in crop failure and livestock deaths, exacerbating food shortages. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a multi‐scalar drought index was used to examine the onset, duration, severity, intensity, and frequency of agricultural and hydrological drought in the region. The gridded 0.5° × 0.5° climatic datasets from Climatic Research Unit for the period 1960?2016 was used for analysis. Temporal evolutions of SPEI at 6‐ and 12‐month lags were subsequently used to evaluate agricultural and hydrological drought, respectively. Additionally, the Mann‐Kendall trend test was used to test for trends in the time series. Results from the analysis show that: 1) droughts are becoming more frequent in the region, 2) drought intensities in the arid and semi‐arid lands have weakened, 3) regions west of the Kerio River have recently recorded a wetting trend, and 4) the southern and central regions of the basin are drought‐prone. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in the basin can assist in drought preparation and mitigation planning.     

气候变化下极端水文事件的研究进展

气候异常变化导致洪涝灾害、干旱等极端水文事件的发生及其增加的水灾害风险正成为人类生存所面临的重大挑战。近年来,开展气候变化背景下流域极端水文事件的变化趋势、发生机理及其对气候变化的响应与预测研究正逐渐受到国内外众多学者的关注。本文从极端水文事件的定义、研究方法、水文极值分布函数、观测事实及模拟研究等方面分析评述了极端水文事件问题的研究现状和研究成果。在此基础上,讨论了研究现状存在的问题并对该领域未来研究方向进行了展望。     

农谚在河南冬小麦种植及气候适应中的应用

农谚是反映人地关系的地方性知识,研究其在农业生产中的应用及适用性,有助于理解人地关系的变迁及地域特点。收集整理河南冬小麦种植的农谚,归纳总结了冬小麦生育期的农谚时序表。进而利用洛阳、开封、信阳1951—2003年的气象观测数据,分析农谚与气候适应的关系。结果显示,随着气候的变化,农谚中的冬小麦适宜播种期比气象实测的适宜播种期略微早。农谚指出冬小麦越冬期怕冬暖,拔节孕穗期间怕春寒及灌浆需晴暖天气,均与实际观测的气象数据相符合。农谚指出了冬小麦缺水及容易出现旱情的生育阶段,并以此进行旱灾适应。     

Response to climate change of different tree species and NDVI variation since 1923 in the middle arid region of Ningxia, China

The normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） is used extensively to describe vegetation cover and ecological environ- ment change. The purpose of this study was to contrast the response of different tree species growing in the same habitat to climate change and retrieve past NDVI using tree-ring width data from tree cores collected from the transitional zone of Pinus tabulaeformis and Picea crassifolia in the Luoshan Mountains in the middle arid region of Ningxia. Correlation analysis indi- cated that radial growth ofP tabulaeJbrmis is more sensitive to precipitation and temperature change than that ofP crassifolia. Natural factors such as water availability and heat at this elevation are more suited to the growth ofP crassifolia, and are more advantageous to its renewal and succession. P. crassifolia is probably the better of the two species for protecting the forest ecosystem and conserving water in the Luoshan desertification area. Ring width of P. crassifolia correlates significantly with average NDVI for April-May （r =0.641, p 〈0.01）, and both of them are influenced positively by precipitation in April-May. The reconstructed NDVI for 1923-2007 shows the relatively low vegetation cover occurred in the 1920s-1930s, the 1960s-1970s, and the early 21 st century. The reconstructed NDVI better reflected the drought climate in the study area.