Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.     

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

兰州市人体舒适度预报系统开发研制

利用兰州市197l-2000年气象资料，统计分析各气象要素的变化规律，并探讨其对人体舒适度的影响。在国内外人体实验和有关研究方法基础上，结合本地特殊的气候状况，建立了与人体舒适度有关的8个指数的计算方法和相应的预报等级，并在预报实践中进行了效果检验和参数订正，可以满足兰州市气象指数预报业务的需要。     

浅析啤酒销售与气象要素的关系及预测

利用1997年1月-2002年6月兰州市某大型啤酒企业啤酒销售资料与同期兰州市气象要素资料，分析气象要素对啤酒销售的影响。分析结果表明，温度是影响啤酒销售量最显著的气象因子。两者具有很好的相关性。采用最小二乘法建立啤酒销售量的月及逐日预报方程。并提出啤酒指数的概念。     

基于资源卫星图像对NDVI进行大气修正的一种简单方法

在遥感应用领域，植被指数己被广泛用来定性和定量表征植被覆盖度及其生长状况。由于大气变化的影响，使植被指数未能真实反映地表植被的真实分布状况，造成其应用的局限性。提出了一种简易方法，仅通过中巴资源卫星(CBERS：China Brazil Environment Resoure Satellite)图像的第3、第4波段中的水体，推算卫星接收到的大气程辐射，消除了大气对归一化植被指数(NDVI：Normalized Differece Vege—tation Index)的影响，减小植被指数所受的大气影响。应用结果表明，该方法能使植被指数较好地反映植被的生长及分布状况。     

广西异常暴雨天气事件之异常指数初探

对广西异常暴雨天气事件之“异常指数”的设置进行了初步探讨，提出暴雨天气事件中过程日最大暴雨范围，过程持续时间，过程强降雨，特强降雨发生范围等四项异常分指数，然后统计同一过程分指数之和，得总指数，在此基础上分别选出了4－10月各月广西异常暴雨天气事件。     

BP神经网络模型在重庆伏旱预测中的应用研究

采用气象要素定义伏旱指数，利用小波分析等方法分析重庆地区伏旱变化特征，最后采用BP神经网络模型对伏旱进行预测试验，结果表明，重庆伏旱变化具有明显的阶段性特征，而基于BP神经网络模型的伏旱预测模型预测效果良好，可以应用于实际预测。     

我国能源消费结构变化与气候特征

文章利用多项式法将气候耗能量从能源消费总量中分离出来，用统计分析的方法探讨了气候耗能量与气候因子之间的关系及其变化。研究表明：从20世纪50年代到80年代初期，旱涝灾害是影响我国气候耗能量的主要气候因子，它们之间存在显著的线性相关关系，随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，旱涝灾害对气候耗能量的影响逐渐减弱，气温对气候耗能量的影响日趋显著，目前正处于过渡时期。     

气象卫星遥感预警福建省森林火灾

应用NOAA卫星遥感资料，研究森林防火期内森林植被的干燥指数的变化，结合分析相应的森林火灾的资料，做出福建省森林火险等级空间分布，应用福建省地理信息系统，根据高火险等级的地理位置，预警该地可能发生森林火灾。     

华北夏季旱涝的环流特征分析

本文运用月降水量、500hPa、100hPa月平均高度场和海平面气压场，在对50a华北夏季旱涝等级重新评定的基础上，分析了与华北夏季旱涝年对应的环流异常特征。结果表明华北旱涝年，对应整个北半球上各层都存在显著的环流异常变化。旱年500hPa环流异常使得极涡偏心，相应乌拉尔山和北美的气候槽偏强；中纬度位于华北的平均槽东移到朝鲜日本一带，而西部脊东移控制华北；低纬西太平洋副高偏东，印度低压槽偏弱。涝年则相反。在海平面气压场上，除了在与高层对应的显著异常区有相应变化外，在我国东部大陆大部及赤道中东太平洋上也有一显著的异常区，证实夏季风和KNSO与华北旱涝存在密切的联系。在100hPa高度场旱涝年环流差异主要表现为南亚高压南北界的位置变化。