Ring current influence on auroral electrojet predictions

Geomagnetic storms and substorms develop under strong control of the solar wind. This is demonstrated by the fact that the geomagnetic activity indices Dst and AE can be predicted from the solar wind alone. A consequence of the strong control by a common source is that substorm and storm indices tend to be highly correlated. However, a part of this correlation is likely to be an effect of internal magnetospheric processes, such as a ring-current modulation of the solar wind-AE relation. The present work extends previous studies of nonlinear AE predictions from the solar wind. It is examined whether the AE predictions are modulated by the Dst index.This is accomplished by comparing neural network predictions from Dst and the solar wind, with predictions from the solar wind alone. Two conclusions are reached: (1) with an optimal set of solar-wind data available, the AE predictions are not markedly improved by the Dst input, but (2) the AE predictions are improved by Dst if less than, or other than, the optimum solar-wind data are available to the net. It appears that the solar wind-AE relation described by an optimized neural net is not significantly modified by the magnetosphere’s Dst state. When the solar wind alone is used to predict AE, the correlation between predicted and observed AE is 0.86, while the prediction residual is nearly uncorrelated to Dst. Further, the finding that Dst can partly compensate for missing information on the solar wind, is of potential importance in operational forecasting where gaps in the stream of real time solar-wind data are a common occurrence.     

Revisiting the morphological method in two-dimensions to quantify bed-material transport in braided rivers

Research in the 1990s showed that bed-material transport rates could be estimated at the reach scale in both one-dimension and, over small spatial scales (10s of m), in two-dimensions. The limit on the latter was the spatial scale over which it was possible to obtain distributed data on morphological change. Here, we revisit the morphological method given progress in both topographical data acquisition and hydraulic modelling. The bed-material transport needed to conserve mass is calculated in both one and two dimensions for a 1600 m × 300 m Alpine braided river “laboratory”. High-resolution topographical data were acquired by laser scanning to quantify Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), and morphological changes caused by the flushing of the water intake were derived from repeated surveys. Based on DEMs of differences, 1D bed-material transport rates were calculated using the morphological method. Then, a 2D hydraulic model was combined with a topographic correction to route sediment through the network of braided channels and to obtain a spatially variable estimate of transport in both downstream and cross-stream directions. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to the routing model parameters, allowing identification of the most probable parameter values needed to minimize negative transport. The results show that within-section spatial compensation of erosion and deposition using the 1D treatment leads to substantial local errors in transport rate estimates, to a degree related to braiding intensity. Even though the 2D application showed that a large proportion of the total transport was actually concentrated into one main channel during the studied low flow event, the proportion of transport in secondary anabranches is substantial when the river starts braiding. Investigations of the effects of DEM resolution, competent flow duration and survey frequency related to ‘travelling bedload’ and sequential erosion-deposition emphasized the critical importance of careful data collection in the application of the morphological method. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Low enthalpy geothermal energy resources in Denmark

The deep oil exploration drillings in Denmark have shown that especially the Danish Embayment contains low enthalpy geothermal resources associated with warm aquifers. The most promising reservoirs have been found in highly permeable Upper Triassic sand and sandstone beds, which cover at least 5000 km² at depths of 2000–3000 m and at temperatures of 60–100°C. The porosity of the main reservoir is of 15–25%, and the permeability is presumed to be approximately 1 darcy (10^–12 m²) or higher. A layer thickness of 30–60 m has been observed on a number of localities. Also the Middle Jurassic and the Lower Triassic contain reservoirs of interest. A major geothermal exploration work is planned with seismic investigations, drillings to depths of 2000–4000 m and probably establishment of pilot district heating plants.     

城市活断层地震勘探的最佳组合方法与应用研究

根据近年来在全国开展的大城市活断层地震探测实践,在简要介绍各种地震勘探方法的基本原理和工作方法的基础上,着重分析了不同地震勘探方法的适用范围、获得的主要成果和所解决的主要问题。讨论了现阶段用地震勘探获取地壳结构和对不同深度断层定位的最佳组合方法,即对于有沉积覆盖的隐伏数百米深度至地表的断层,可用浅层地震勘探对其进行追踪,基底(埋深数公里)以上断层可采用高分辨地震折射探测;对于地壳中、深断裂应用反射地震勘探和深地震宽角反射/折射联合探测方法;还可以进一步采用三维深地震测深方法获得城市下方的三维结构和构造信息。采用这样的组合探测方法能够较好地获得断层在不同深度的产状与展布以及由深至浅完整的分布图像,并给出了应用实例     

对数正态分布下边坡稳定性二元指标体系研究

安全系数不能考虑边坡系统中实际存在的不确定性,可靠性理论缺乏丰富的工程实践经验,因此,将工程实践经验丰富的安全系数与先进的可靠性理论相结合,建立传统安全系数与可靠性相耦合的二元评价体系具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.设安全系数服从对数正态分布,取系列的最大可能安全系数（中值安全系数）和变异系数,计算得到最大可能安全系数及在不同变异系数下的破坏概率Pfo从而可由最大可能安全系数和可靠性（R=1-Pf）共同度量边坡的稳定性.将最大可能安全系数与边坡可靠性相乘,对最大可能安全系数进行折减,得到边坡可靠的安全系数.根据折减后安全系数的极限状态,可计算出不同最大可能安全系数的临界变异系数和临界破坏概率.根据不同最大可能安全系数及它的临界破坏概率,绘出边坡稳定性分区图,并建立安全系数和破坏概率相结合的边坡稳定性判别的二元指标体系.文中提供了小样本条件下,利用3倍方差原理估计参数方差的计算方法,并给出了边坡稳定性二元指标体系的研究实例.     

Some foundation stability problems of the railway bridge over the Mala Rijeka

SummarySome Foundation Stability Problems of the Railway Bridge over the Mala Rijeka The authors presented an outlay of problems occurring in estimating the stability of rocky slopes loaded by large vertical forces. General attitudes, kept by the authors during the stability analysis for an actual case — foundation of piers No. 3 and 4 of the railway bridge across the Mala Rijeka, are also presented. The results of calculation as well as the advantages of the approach applied are outlined in the paper. Finally, general conclusions are drawn regarding the method to be kept in solving the stability of slopes loaded by large artificial loading.With 7 Figures     

逐步逼近曲化平方法研究

位场资料的常规处理解释方法是建立在平面数据理论之上的,然而实际的位场数据大多为曲面数据,若把曲面数据当成平面数据进行处理,必然导致很大的误差,因此有必要进行“曲化平”处理. 曲化平目前存在的主要问题是计算精度低、计算量大,因此,研究快速、精度高且适合大数据量处理的曲化平方法具有重要的价值. 本文在已有的泰勒级数曲化平方法基础上提出了逐步逼近技术和平均平面技术,使得曲面位场资料处理的精度得到了很大提高. 最后通过理论模型和实际资料的处理验证了该方法的应用效果.     

东昆仑造山带早古生代—早中生代构造演化的沉积地球化学记录

东昆仑地区发育一套显生宙碎屑岩地层,包括下寒武统沙松乌拉组、中—上奥陶统纳赤台群、上石炭统—下二叠统浩特洛哇组、下三叠统洪水川组、中三叠统希里科特组以及上三叠统八宝山组。研究区砂岩的CIA值反映沙松乌拉组砂岩源区化学风化程度较高,其余各组砂岩源区化学风化程度较低。主量和微量元素研究结果表明各组砂岩源区以长英质岩石为主,包含少量中性成分。La、Ce、Th、U、∑REE含量和La/Sc、Th/Sc、Sc/Cr、La/Y比值指示沙松乌拉组和纳赤台群砂岩沉积环境为大陆岛弧或活动大陆边缘,浩特洛哇组砂岩形成于被动大陆边缘环境,洪水川组砂岩沉积环境为活动大陆边缘,希里科特组砂岩的微量元素含量及其比值接近于活动大陆边缘和被动大陆边缘,八宝山组砂岩沉积环境为活动大陆边缘。综合分析认为沙松乌拉组和纳赤台群砂岩形成于原特提斯洋俯冲阶段,浩特洛哇组砂岩形成于古特提斯洋持续扩张阶段,洪水川组砂岩形成于古特提斯洋俯冲阶段,希里科特组砂岩形成于陆(弧)陆初始碰撞阶段,八宝山组砂岩形成于陆陆全面碰撞—碰撞后阶段。     

国内地质灾害机理与防治技术研究现状

根据2013年4月10～12日在北京召开的第六届全国地质灾害与防治学术会议的特邀报告、主题报告以及论文集所报道的目前国内地质灾害机理与防治技术现状,分别从地质灾害成灾机理与减灾对策、地质灾害监测预警、地质灾害防治技术与应急处置、区域地质灾害风险管理与评价等4个方面进行简要介绍和分析。这些方面的研究成果代表了目前国内地质灾害机理与防治技术研究的现状和发展方向,对促进我国今后的地质灾害机理与防治技术研究有一定的积极作用。     

Reliability analysis of strength of cement treated soils

The design strength of cement treated soils and its variability are influenced by various contributing factors such as inherent variability of the soft ground as well as variations in the quantities of the additives used for improvement. To consider these variations, geotechnical designs use the factor of safety approach. This paper shows that the reliability-based analysis enables a rational choice of a design strength value for the cement-stabilised soft soil, considering the variations in the influencing input parameters in an appropriate manner. An approach for identifying the important variables governing the strength behaviour of improved soft soils is also illustrated.