Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.     

基于改进Snake模型的道路网空间冲突处理

在对Snake模型研究分析的基础上,结合地图制图的需求,从3个方面对Snake模型进行改进：首先建立Snake模型中参数与道路曲线形态特征的关系,以更好地保持移位前后道路形态的相似性;其次控制Snake模型中外力的传播范围,以尽量保持要素位置的准确性;最后,通过道路交叉点的权重属性控制,保证移位后各交叉点的连通性以及道路的整体拓扑关系不发生变化。在此基础上,提出道路网移位整体思路,并采用改进的Snake模型对其进行移位,解决空间冲突。     

钻孔灌注桩施工对邻近运营隧道变形影响研究

桩基施工将引起周边地层位移和邻近隧道结构变形,以南京龙津桥改建项目桩基工程为背景,通过现场实测,分析研究钻孔灌注桩施工全过程各工况条件对地层位移场和邻近既有隧道结构变形的影响规律。结果表明:由于钢套管的护壁作用,钻孔灌注桩施工过程中产生的最大地层位移和隧道结构变形较小,说明采用“钢套管边旋压边取土”、“群桩间跳施工”等工艺,对周围土体扰动影响程度较小,建议近隧桩基工程采用全套管灌注桩的施工方法,监测分析结果可为类似工程提供技术参考。     

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.     

基于GM(1,1)优化模型的岩石边坡变形预报

岩石边坡系统是一典型灰色系统，其变形发展过程可以用灰色预测模型完成。尽管传统GM（1，1）模型预测有很多成功的实例，但是也存在一些预测偏差过大的情况，必须对其进行优化。逐步迭代法GM（1，1）模型不仅收敛速度快，而且与原始数据库序列的凹凸性保护一致。利用自编的计算程序对马步坎边坡预测测点G1沉降和开裂进行预测分析，结果表明逐步迭代法GM（1，1）优化模型计算精度较传统GM（1，1）模型和背景构造法GM（1，1）优化模型高，较好地反映了岩石边坡的变形趋势。     

Behaviour of a rupture of the 21 June 2000 earthquake in South Iceland as revealed in an asphalted car park

A major earthquake (M=6.6) occurred on 21 June 2000, in South Iceland. This paper presents an unusual example of left-lateral strike-slip displacement recorded in a newly asphalted car park surface through a mechanically consistent pattern of open fissures and pressure ridges resulting from simple shear and rotation. Measurement of these features allows accurate reconstruction of the local deformation. The behaviour of the asphalt layer resembles that of analogue physical models, especially in terms of rotations induced by shear deformation. It is finally shown that through a wide range of scales some basic patterns associating rotation and opposite senses of strike-slip exist in the South Iceland Seismic Zone.     

Numerical Analysis of Space–Time Finite Element Formulations for Miscible Displacements

A finite element formulation is proposed to approximate a nonlinear system of partial differential equations, composed by an elliptic subsystem for the pressure–velocity and a transport equation (convection–diffusion) for the concentration, which models the incompressible miscible displacement of one fluid by another in a rigid porous media. The pressure is approximated by the classical Galerkin method and the velocity is calculated by a post-processing technique. Then, the concentration is obtained by a Galerkin/least-squares space–time (GLS/ST) finite element method. A numerical analysis is developed for the concentration approximation. Then, stability, convergence and numerical results are presented confirming the a priori error estimates.     

桥梁限位器抗震设计方法研究

本文建立了两跨简支梁桥和五跨多跨刚架桥两结构模型，针对限位器的种类、刚度、强度、安装位置，输入地震动等进行了大量工况下的数值模拟研究。研究表明限位器与柱（框架）的刚度比在0.5-2之间较优。将现有的限位器设计方法应用于两算例结构，对现有限位器设计方法进行了比较研究。     

依据剖面资料求解断层的水平位移

提出依据开挖剖面中的楔形体在受到断层作用时其厚度的变化量求解断层水平位移的方法。分析表明断层水平位移量S与楔形体在断层两侧厚度变化量Δh满足关系式S＝Δh/ρsinβ。式中ρ为楔形体在断层走向上的尖灭系数，β为断层的倾角，该关系式不仅能满足纯走滑运动的断层，而且也满足一般斜滑断层，同时提出了在剖面上判断断层水平运动性质的方法。     

Recent developments in seismically isolated buildings in Japan

The Building Standard Law of Japan and related Enforcement Order and Notifications have been substantially revised since the year 2000 to introduce a performance-based regulatory and deregulation system for building control systems. Up to then, time-history analyses were mandatory for isolated buildings and had to be specially approved by the Minster of the Ministry of Construction (MOC). Simplified design procedures based on the equivalent linear method for seismically isolated buildings have been issued as “Notification 2009 — Structural calculation procedure for buildings with seismic isolation” from MOC, and are now integrated into the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation (MLIT). Along with Notification 2009, “Notification 1446 of year 2000 — Standard for specifications and test methods for seismic isolation devices” was also issued. Buildings with heights equal to or less than 60m and that are designed according to these Notifications, including base isolated buildings, only need approval from local building officials, and no longer require the special approval of the Minister of MLIT. This paper summarizes: 1) some statistics related to buildings with seismic isolation completed up to the end of 2001; 2) simplified design procedures required by Notification 2009 of year 2000; and 3) performance of seismic isolation devices required by Notification 1446 of year 2000.