Incorporating movement in species distribution models: how do simulations of dispersal affect the accuracy and uncertainty of projections?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are one of the most important GIScience research areas in biogeography and are the primary means by which the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions and ranges are investigated. Dispersal is an important ecological process for species responding to changing climates, however, SDMs and their subsequent spatial products rarely reflect accessibility to any future suitable environment. Dispersal-related movement can be confounded by factors that vary across landscapes and climates, as well as within and among species, and it has therefore remained difficult to parametrise in SDMs. Here we compared 20 models that have previously been used (or have the potential to be used) to represent dispersal processes in SDM to predict future range shifts in response to climate change. We assessed the different dispersal models in terms of their accuracy at predicting future distributions, as well as the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Atlas data for 50 bird species from 1988 to 1991 in Great Britain were treated as base distributions (t₁), with the species–environment relationships extrapolated (using three commonly used statistical methods) to 2008–2011 (t₂). Dispersal (in the form of the 20 different models) was simulated from the base distribution (t₁) to 2008–2011 (t₂). The results were then combined and used to identify locations that were both abiotically suitable (obtained from the statistical methods) and accessible (obtained from the dispersal models). The accuracy of these coupled projections was assessed with the 2008–2011 atlas data (the observed t₂ distribution). There was substantial variation in the accuracy of the different dispersal models, and in general, the more restrictive dispersal models (e.g. fixed rate dispersal) resulted in lower accuracy for the metrics which reward correct prediction of presences. Ensemble models of the dispersal methods (generated by combining multiple projection outcomes) were created for each species, and a new Ensemble Agreement Index (EAI), which ranges from 0 (no agreement among models) to 1 (full agreement among models) was developed to quantify uncertainty among the projections. EAI values ranged from 0.634 (some areas of disagreement and therefore medium uncertainty among dispersal models) to 0.999 (large areas of agreement and low uncertainty among dispersal models). The results of this research highlight the importance of incorporating dispersal and also illustrate that the method with which dispersal is simulated greatly impacts the projected future distribution. This has important implications for studies aimed at predicting the effects of changing environmental conditions on species’ distributions.     

Widespread dispersal of Icelandic tephra: how does the Eyjafjöll eruption of 2010 compare to past Icelandic events?

The Eyjafjöll AD 2010 eruption is an extraordinary event in that it led to widespread and unprecedented disruption to air travel over Europe – a region generally considered to be free from the hazards associated with volcanic eruptions. Following the onset of the eruption, satellite imagery demonstrated the rapid transportation of ash by westerly winds over mainland Europe, eventually expanding to large swathes of the North Atlantic Ocean and the eastern seaboard of Canada. This small‐to‐intermediate size eruption and the dispersal pattern observed are not particularly unusual for Icelandic eruptions within a longer‐term perspective. Indeed, the Eyjafjöll eruption is a relatively modest eruption in comparison to some of the 20 most voluminous eruptions that have deposited cryptotephra in sedimentary archives in mainland Europe, such as the mid Younger Dryas Vedde Ash and the mid Holocene Hekla 4 tephra. The 2010 eruption, however, highlights the critical role that weather patterns play in the distribution of a relatively small amount of ash and also highlights the spatially complex dispersal trajectories of tephra in the atmosphere. Whether or not the preservation of the Eyjafjöll 2010 tephra in European proxy archives will correspond to the extensive distributions mapped in the atmosphere remains to be seen. The Eyjafjöll 2010 event highlights our increased vulnerability to natural hazards rather than the unparalleled explosivity of the event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment dispersal and quantitative stratigraphic architecture across an ancient shelf

Two large (200 to 300 km), near‐continuous outcrop transects and extensive well‐log data (ca 2800 wells) allow analysis of sedimentological characteristics and stratigraphic architecture across a large area (ca 60 000 km²) of the latest Santonian to middle Campanian shelf along the western margin of the Western Interior Seaway in eastern Utah and western Colorado, USA. Genetically linked depositional systems are mapped at high chronostratigraphic resolution (ca 0·1 to 0·5 Ma) within their sequence stratigraphic context. In the lower part of the studied interval, sediment was dispersed via wave‐dominated deltaic systems with a ‘compound clinoform’ geomorphology in which an inner, wave‐dominated shoreface clinoform was separated by a muddy subaqueous topset from an outer clinoform containing sand‐poor, gravity‐flow deposits. These strata are characterized by relatively steep, net‐regressive shoreline trajectories (>0·1°) with concave‐landward geometries, narrow nearshore belts of storm‐reworked sandstones (2 to 22 km), wide offshore mudstone belts (>250 km) and relatively high sediment accumulation rates (ca 0·27 mm year^?1). The middle and upper parts of the studied interval also contain wave‐dominated shorefaces, but coeval offshore mudstones enclose abundant ‘isolated’ tide‐influenced sandstones that were transported sub‐parallel to the regional palaeoshoreline by basinal hydrodynamic (tidal?) circulation. These strata are characterized by relatively shallow, net‐regressive shoreline trajectories (<0·1°) with straight to concave‐seaward geometries, wide nearshore belts of storm‐reworked sandstones (19 to 70 km), offshore mudstone belts of variable width (130 to >190 km) and relatively low sediment accumulation rates (ca ≤0·11 mm year^?1). The change in shelfal sediment dispersal and stratigraphic architecture, from: (i) ‘compound clinoform’ deltas characterized by across‐shelf sediment transport; to (ii) wave‐dominated shorelines with ‘isolated’ tide‐influenced sandbodies characterized by along‐shelf sediment transport, is interpreted as reflecting increased interaction with the hydrodynamic regime in the seaway as successive shelfal depositional systems advanced out of a sheltered embayment (‘Utah Bight’). This advance was driven by a decreasing tectonic subsidence rate, which also suppressed autogenic controls on stratigraphic architecture.     

Source and dispersal of suspended sediment in the macro-tidal Gulf of Kachchh

The macro-tidal Gulf of Kachchh, covering nearly 7000 km(2), is located about 150 km south of the Indus River mouth. In spite of semi-arid climate and lack of major rivers flowing into it, the Gulf is highly turbid with suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) during October-November 2002 ranging between 0.5 and 674 mgl(-1). Highly turbid waters are observed towards the northern portion of the mouth of the Gulf, at the head of the Gulf and adjacent to the numerous shoals present within the Gulf. Perennial high SSC in the Gulf is due to resuspension of sediments by strong tidal currents, shallow bathymetry and presence of fine-grained sediments on the sea floor. Numerical model studies show that there is a dynamic barrier in the central Gulf, which prevents the exchange of water and suspended sediments between the outer and inner Gulf. This dynamic barrier associated with strong east-west tidal currents restricts the turbid waters mainly to the northern Gulf, resulting in relatively clear waters (SSC<10 mgl(-1)) in the southern and central portions of the Gulf. Laser particle size distribution, clay mineralogy and geochemistry of the suspended matter show that the main source of sediments to the Gulf of Kachchh is the Indus River. Although the Indus discharge has been severely curtailed in the recent decades due to construction of numerous dams and barrages, the Gulf of Kachchh continues to receive resuspended sediments from the numerous meso and macro-tidal creeks of the Indus delta. The sediments at the head of the Gulf appear to be a mixture of sediments derived from the Indus as well as the numerous seasonal rivers draining the Rann of Kachchh.     

Fish gut microecosystem: a model for detecting spatial pattern of microorganisms

The spatial distribution pattern of organisms is a basic issue in understanding the mechanisms of community assembly. Although the spatial distributions of animals and plants have been well studied, those of microorganisms are still being debated. In this study, we used a fish gut microecosystem to detect the spatial pattern of microbes, because it can provide a relatively unified and stable environment. Results suggest that the turnover of intestinal bacterial assemblages showed a weak but highly significant negative correlation between similarity and distances in the microbial community, in respect of both grass carp intestinal loci distances and the geographical distance between fish sampling sites. Our results also suggest that intestinal bacterial assemblages responded to differences within the external environment and within different parts of the fish themselves. These results show that some, or possibly all, microbes are restricted in their distribution and that environmental factors are also important influences on the structure of intestinal bacterial assemblages. The fish gut microecosystem is useful in promoting study of the spatial distribution patterns of microorganisms.     

Decoding post-orogenic sediment recycling and dispersal using detrital zircon core and rim ages

Detrital zircon (DZ) geochronology has become a popular tool in provenance studies during the past two decades. However, similar zircon crystallization ages from different source regions greatly hamper the interpretation of sediment dispersal and recycling processes. The Alleghenian–Ouachita–Marathon (AOM) foreland and vicinity in North America is a region where some dominant DZ age groups could come from both the southern Appalachians in the eastern United States and the Gondwanan terranes in Mexico. In this study, we present 1045 new DZ U–Pb ages and 81 DZ core–rim age pairs in lower Permian sandstone in the Permian Basin and Miocene sandstone in the eastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). These new data were integrated with published DZ single U–Pb age and core–rim ages from syn- to post-orogenic strata in the Permian Basin, Marathon foldbelt, southern Appalachian foreland basin and eastern GOM to interpret the sediment-dispersal models in the AOM foreland and eastern GOM. Our models show that during the Leonardian Stage, sediments derived from the Appalachians were first delivered to the US midcontinent and then recycled to the Permian Basin; during the Miocene, sediment from the Appalachians fluxed to the eastern GOM, with no longshore mixing from the western GOM. These models based on the integration of single U–Pb and core–rim ages are consistent with published results that used other methods, including zircon single U–Pb age, zircon Hf isotopic data, zircon (U–Th)/He age, sedimentology and stratigraphy. Our results demonstrate that although some limitations exist, zircon core–rim age is a powerful tool, adding an extra constraint on the interpretation of sediment-dispersal systems. This tool is particularly applicable to the post-orogenic stage, during which the sediment pathways are more complicated because of the dominant input from distal sources. Insights gained in this study imply that this novel strategy of using core and rim ages could be integrated with other methods to better understand sediment dispersal.     

Factors Influencing Species Composition in Canopy Gaps: The Importance of Edge Proximity in Hueston Woods,Ohio

In this research, we attempt to quantify the factors structuring woody species composition within forest gaps in the interior of Hueston Woods Nature Preserve, Ohio. Our results indicate that composition is related not only to factors commonly cited in other studies, including disturbance history, topographic position, and environmental factors (e.g., gap age, soil pH, slope, and aspect), but also to the proximity of forest edge communities. Partitioning of species variation to environmental factors, spatial factors, and spatially structured environmental factors reinforces the importance of both environment and edge proximity in explaining gap composition. These findings underscore the need for a more complete understanding of the potential impacts of edge effects in fragmented landscapes.     

Distribution of shipworms (Bivalvia: Teredinidae) in the New Zealand region

Bankia neztalia was found in temperate waters around New Zealand, mainly south of New Plymouth and Tauranga. Bankia australis was found in warm‐temperate waters north of Nelson; it requires water temperatures above 19–20°c for successful breeding and is euryhaline. Lyrodus pedicellatus also occurred in warm‐temperate waters north of Nelson and had a lower water temperature limit for survival of about 10 °c. Lyrodus medilobatus occurred in warm‐temperate waters on the north‐east coast of the North Island north of Tauranga. Nototeredo edax is uncommon and occurred over the same range as B. australis.

The presence of shipworms in wood collected from depths of greater than 50 m around New Zealand is reported. Teredora princesae is recorded from driftwood around New Zealand.     

Significant population genetic structuring of the holoplanktic scyphozoan Pelagia noctiluca in the Atlantic Ocean

Pelagia noctiluca is thought to have a global distribution, yet our understanding of genetic connectivity across the range of this problem animal is poor. Here, we investigate the genetic structure of populations off southern Africa using mitochondrial COI and nuclear ITS1 and ITS2 genes, and compare the results to recent work conducted in the North-East Atlantic. Analyses showed significant differentiation between the southern and northern Atlantic population groups (COI Φ _st = 0.72, ITS2 Φ _st = 0.23, p < 0.001), which suggests historical rather than contemporary gene flow. Southern African samples showed high haplotypic (h = 1) and low nucleotide (π = 0.008) diversity, similar to those from Europe. Phylogenetic analyses suggest South African samples to have diverged earlier than those from the northern Atlantic.