预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

试论洋山深水港与上海国际航运中心建设

建设国际航运中心是上海城市发展的宏伟目标之一。目前,围绕东北亚国际航运中心的竞争十分激烈,釜山、神户、高雄等港口均提出了明确的发展目标,并纷纷建设一系列深水集装箱泊位。本文以国际竞争态势为背景,着重分析了国际集装箱航运市场的最新动态、洋山深水港对建设上海国际航运中心的重要意义,并详细论证了强化上海国际航运中心功能的政策创新,探讨了优化上海国际航运中心营运水平的关键措施,为推进上海国际航运中心建设献计献策。     

日本自然灾害现状与新态势

日本是一个多灾且严重的国家,依据最新资料,分析了日本自然灾害的现状特征;自然灾害影响社会经济发展,而社会经济变化可能成为新的致灾因素并形成新的灾害形式。本文特别对城市化、过疏化、高龄化和网络化与灾害进行了论述;最后论述了“自助”“共助”和“公助”三位一体的防灾基本对策的内容。这些对正处于高速经济发展和城市化的我国来说,具有重要的借鉴作用。     

Timing effects on the fragmentation of small scale blocks of granodiorite

A series of small scale tests, simulating multi-hole blasts have been performed to establish the effect of delays on blast fragmentation. The blasts were performed in high quality granodiorite blocks, which were cut from stone prepared by dimensional stone quarry operations. The pattern used was equilateral triangular, with a distance of 10.2 cm between boreholes, which had a diameter of 11 mm, were loaded with detonating cord and the coupling medium was water. The delays used were achieved using different lengths of detonating cord for the cases of delays between 0 and 100 μs between holes and a sequential blasting machine firing seismic detonators for larger delays up to 4 ms. All fragments were collected and screened. The experiments showed that the worst fragmentation was achieved with simultaneous initiation of all charges. Fragmentation improved with the delay time between holes up to 1 ms between holes. If the experiments are scaled up, the results show that in granodiorite, fragmentation optimization requires delays of few milliseconds per metre of burden. The findings, agree with previously published work, involving larger scale experiments and other rock types.     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Kaleidoscoping Landscapes,Shifting Perspectives

Landscapes change in complex ways, creating surface patterns reminiscent of forms seen through a kaleidoscope. On the Earth's surface, those forms are linked to, and caused by, processes that originate with bedrock‐soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere interactions. Human‐caused alterations to landscapes are additionally tied to socioeconomic processes. Evaluation of landscape‐level processes can benefit from examining (1) the influence of disturbance regimes in altering landscape patterns, (2) the importance of considering surficial processes, (3) the subtle and cryptic spatial relations that may be present, (4) the reciprocal relationships among local processes and regional consequences, (5) the increased likelihood of some land cover transitions compared to others, and (6) the special case of landscapes with long histories of human use. These are all examples of potential fruitful arenas for interactions and represent a path for expansion of landscape ecology through accommodation of a broad range of content covered by the international GIScience community.     

The place of individuals in the politics of scale

Conceptualizations and re-conceptualizations of scale have been powerful tools for explaining spatial processes that transcend traditionally-bounded territories. Examining the role of individuals within a politics of scale can do even more to explain multi-scalar conflicts. This paper does so by examining struggles over airport expansion in the US, showing how an understanding of the various roles of individuals in the politics of scale – as sites of multiple scales, as actors constituting other scales, and as scales in and of themselves – better explains multi-scalar conflicts and offers more opportunities for resolving them.     

The Earthquake Readiness Scale: The Development of a Valid and Reliable Unifactorial Measure

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.     

Energy transfer among Pb, Ce and Mn in fluorescent calcite from Kuerle, Xinjiang, China

Natural calcite from Kuerle, Xinjiang, China, shows orange-red fluorescence when exposed to short-wave ultraviolet (UV) light (Hg 253.7 nm). Photoluminescence (PL) emission and excitation spectra of the calcite are observed at room temperature in detail. The PL emission spectrum under 208 nm excitation consists of three bands: two UV bands at 325 and 355 nm and an orange-red band at 620 nm. The three bands are ascribed to Pb²⁺, Ce³⁺ and Mn²⁺, respectively, as activators. The Pb²⁺ excitation band is observed at 243 nm, and the Ce³⁺ excitation band at 295 nm. The Pb²⁺ excitation band is also observed by monitoring the Ce³⁺ fluorescence, and the Pb²⁺ and Ce³⁺ excitation bands, in addition to six Mn²⁺ excitation bands, are also observed by monitoring the Mn²⁺ fluorescence. These indicate that four types of the energy transfer can occur in calcite through the following processes: (1) Pb²⁺ → Ce³⁺, (2) Pb²⁺ → Mn²⁺, (3) Ce³⁺ → Mn²⁺ and (4) Pb²⁺ → Ce³⁺ → Mn²⁺.     

The Alcamayo and Cedrobamba catastrophic debris flow (January, March and April 2004) in Machupicchu area—Peru

A debris flow originating from the Alcamayo River on 10th April 2004 destroyed a part of the town of Aguas Calientes, resulting in 11 victims, and with serious affects to the tourist flow to the Machupicchu inka citadel. On the same day, as well as in January and March 2004, other similar phenomena occurred on the Cedrobamba and Leonchayoq Rivers, affecting the railway and an electrical tower, and disrupting the train service.