Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏-南黄海地区中强震预测

分析讨论了台湾地区7级大震与本区中强震之间相关关系，指出1999年台湾7.6级大震后2－3年内，本区将有5－6级中强震发生。同时应用可公度模型和“带头地震”的异年倍九法联合对本区中强震发震时间进行分析预测。结论表明，该方法可以较好地应用于本区短临地震预报实践。     

Nonlinear earthquake response analysis and energy calculation for seismic slit shear wall structures

Based on the concept of structural passive control, a new type of slit shear wall, with improved seismic performance when compared to an ordinary solid shear wall, was proposed by the authors in 1996. The idea has been verified by a series of pseudo-static and dynamic tests. In this paper a macro numerical model is developed for the wall element and the energy dissipation device. Then, nonlinear time history analysis is carried out for a 10-story slit shear wall model tested on a shaking table. Furthermore, the seismic input energy and the individual energy dissipated by the components are calculated by a method based on Newmark-β assumptions for this shear wall model, and the advantages of this shear wall are further demonstrated by the calculation results from the viewpoint of energy. Finally, according to the seismic damage criterion on the basis of plastic accumulative energy and maximum response, the optimal analysis is carried out to select design parameters for the energy dissipation device.     

DAS24-3B数据采集系统采集控制模块的工作原理

DAS24-3B是中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所研制的宽频带地震数据采集系统。采集控制模块是该系统的重要组成部分。本文阐述了控制模块的工作原理，介绍了DAS24-3B系统的基本组成和采集器工作过程，并给出该系统如何与笔记本端应用程序界面通讯和联络的操作建议，使该系统能够在工作中发挥更大的作用。     

连续小波变换在新疆地震活动周期分析中的应用

利用连续小波变换分析和研究了 1 970年 1月— 2 0 0 1年 1 2月新疆地区 30年来的地震活动情况。结果表明 ,新疆地震活动存在比较稳定的 1 0年左右活动周期 ,并存在 5年和 1 7年左右的不稳定的准活动周期 ,也就是说新疆地区地震活动既存在比较稳定的优势周期 ,也存在一定的时变性。根据 MS≥ 4.7地震时间序列的连续小波变换结果可推测 ,2 0 0 2— 2 0 0 5年新疆地区地震活动相对偏弱 ,中、强地震的发生次数偏少 ,有可能发生 5级或 6级地震 ,而到 2 0 0 6— 2 0 0 7年新疆有可能再次发生 7级左右的大地震。     

位移监测在滑坡时空运动研究中的应用

滑坡时空运动特征是滑坡地质体在内因和外因共同作用下，自一种状态向另一种状态转化的地质过程。滑坡位移监测是研究滑坡变形影响因素、动态规律及预测预报的主要途径，特别是滑坡深部位移监测，又为研究滑坡体的时空运动过程提供了重要信息。本文结合几个滑坡的深部位移监测实践，综合分析位移监测信息，研究滑坡体的时空运动特征及发展趋势，为滑坡时空运动系统研究及稳定性预测提供依据。     

Representation of fish communities by scale sub-fossils in shallow lakes: implications for inferring percid–cyprinid shifts

The palaeoecological potential of fish scales was assessed by comparing contemporary population data with scale remains obtained from littoral (n = 10) and open water (n = 10) surface sediment samples in two English shallow lakes, Selbrigg Pond and Cockshoot Broad. Scales and/or scale fragments were present, in low numbers (<20 per 100 cm³ wet sediment) in 34 of 40 sediment samples. In accordance with fish population data, higher densities of scale remains were found in Selbrigg compared to Cockshoot, and in littoral compared to open water samples. Taxonomic difficulties, exacerbated by scale fragmentation, made it impossible to assign the majority of remains to individual species. Most remains could, however, be placed into one of two groups: (i) percids – represented by both scales and scale fragments; and (ii) cyprinids – largely represented by scale fragments. To allow comparison of fish population and sedimentary scale data, both were converted to percentages of the aggregate percid–cyprinid total. Whole scales recovered were almost exclusively percid (45 of 48), thus bore little resemblance to the contemporary fish data. Nevertheless, percentages of scale fragments (Selbrigg: 34 and 66%; Cockshoot: 13 and 87% percid and cyprinid, respectively) and of whole scales and fragments combined (Selbrigg: 54 and 46%; Cockshoot: 46 and 54% percid and cyprinid, respectively) reflected the presence of the numerically dominant fish groups and the broad inter-site differences in their relative abundance (Selbrigg: 36 and 64%; Cockshoot: 10 and 90% percid and cyprinid, respectively). A running mean of scales per sediment volume indicated that some 400 cm³ of sediment was required to accurately characterise the remains present. This study suggests that, with the appropriate methodological considerations (e.g., collection of large sediment samples), fish scale remains may be used to determine the past presence–absence and relative abundance of percid and cyprinid species. As such, this technique may be a valuable supplementary tool for establishing longer-term changes in the fish communities of shallow lakes.     

中国大陆科学钻探钻探子工程钻进实时记录网页的开发

以中国大陆科学钻探实时记录网页的开发为例，介绍了在开发网络数据库时，利用Excel组件作输入界面，实现查询界面上表格的表头和表尾不动、而中间行可以滚动，实现回次滚动查询和界面实时刷新。     

吉林省土壤中有效锰、铜、钼和锌含量的时空变化

选择吉林省的五个大豆种植区(敦化、桦甸、榆树、农安、白城)、四个水稻种植区(白城、九台、延吉、梅河口)及3个草场分布区(镇赉、洮南、大安)，对其土壤中有效锰、铜、钼和锌的含量在过去20年的变化作了比较和分析。经研究表明：吉林省土壤中有效锰和有效铜含量较20年前有所增高，有效钼含量总体呈降低趋势，中部部分地区和东部地区土壤有效锌含量降低，其余地区含量增高。空间分布东部高于中西部。