中国城市居民住房来源构成与省际差异——基于“五普”与“六普”数据的分析

2000年到2010年十年间,随着中国城市住房改革的深入和住房市场的快速发展,城市居民住房来源结构也发生了较大变化。本文综合不同视角对当前中国城市居民住房来源体系进行了梳理,选取购买商品房、购买经济适用房、租赁住房和自建住房4种类型,以第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查的数据为基础,分析了中国31个省(市、区)城市居民住房来源的构成、变化和省际差异特征,并通过构建神经网络对省际差异的影响因素进行分析。最后得出结论并对未来城市居民住房结构的变化进行展望。     

The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being -0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m /s over the WNP and 4.6 m /s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii(R15,R16) of the 15.4 m /s winds them and the 25.7 m /s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.     

Detecting the storage and change on topsoil organic carbon in grasslands of Inner Mongolia from 1980s to 2010s

Soil carbon sequestration and potential has been a focal issue in global carbon research. Under the background of global change, the estimation of the size as well as its change of soil organic carbon（SOC） storage is of great importance. Based on soil data from the second national soil survey and field survey during 2011–2012, by using the regression method between sampling soil data and remote sensing data, this paper aimed to investigate spatial distribution and changes of topsoil（0–20 cm） organic carbon storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s. The results showed that：（1） the SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s was estimated to be 2.05 and 2.17 Pg C, with an average density of 3.48 and 3.69 kg C·m–2, respectively. The SOC storage was mainly distributed in the typical steppe and meadow steppe, which accounted for over 98% of the total SOC storage. The spatial distribution showed a decreased trend from the meadow steppe, typical steppe to the desert steppe, corresponding to the temperature and precipitation gradient.（2） SOC changes during 1982–2012 were estimated to be 0.12 Pg C, at 7.00 g C·m–2·yr–1, which didn＇t show a significant change, indicating that SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable over this period. However, topsoil organic carbon showed different trends of carbon source/sink during the past three decades. Meadow steppe and typical steppe had sequestered 0.15 and 0.03 Pg C, respectively, served as a carbon sink; while desert steppe lost 0.06 Pg C, served as a carbon source. It appears that SOC storage in grassland ecosystem may respond differently to climate change, related to vegetation type, regional climate type and grazing intensity. These results might give advice to decision makers on adopting suitable countermeasures for sustainable grassland utilization and protection.     

我国横断山区1960-2008年气温和降水时空变化特征

运用样条函数法、线性回归、最小二乘法和趋势分析等方法,对横断山区27个气象站1960-2008年日平均气温和降水资料分析表明,近50年来横断山区气温呈现统计意义上的变暖趋势,其中60和80年代气温相对较低,其他年代则较高,2000-2008时段年均温比多年均值高0.46^oC。横断山区年均气温、春季气温、夏季气温、秋季气温和冬季气温的倾向率分别为0.15^oC10a^-1、0.589^oC10a^-1、0.153^oC10a^-1、0.167^oC10a^-1和0.347^oC10a^-1,升温幅度表现出随纬度增高而加大的趋势,整个横断山区以沙鲁里山和大雪山南缘区域及梅里雪山地区为中心,春季升温幅度最大,冬季次之。横断山区年降水在60和70年代偏低,80年代以后相对偏高,特别是90年代比多年均值高29.84mm,进入2000年后相较90年代明显下降。横断山区年降水、春季降水、夏季降水、秋季降水和冬季降水倾向率分别为9.09mm10a^-1、8.62mm10a^-1、-1.5mm10a^-1、1.53mm10a^-1和1.47mm10a^-1,只有春季倾向率通过了显著水平检验;除夏季降水外,其他季节降水均表现出由西南向东北和由南向北递减的趋势,这是纵向岭谷对流经该区的东亚季风和南亚季风同时起着东西向阻隔作用和南北向通道作用的体现。横断山区季风期气温和降水的倾向率分别为0.117^oC10a^-1和6.01mm10a^-1,最为明显的是2000年后季风期降水明显降低;横断山区非季风期气温和降水的倾向率分别为0.25^oC10a^-1和7.47mm10a^-1,均高于季风期。     

河北省冷暖变化气候特征分析

利用河北省70个站自建站至2000年近50a的系统气温观测资料,分析了河北省冷暖变化的年际和年代际特征,及其区域差异和季节差别,并估计了河北省未来50a冷暖变化趋势。结果表明：河北省年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温的年际和年代际变化都呈现增温趋势,增温幅度由大到小依次为：年平均最低气温、年平均气温、年平均最高气温;全省年平均、最高、最低气温变化趋势与其五个分区的变化趋势具有整体一致性,都皇现升温趋势,但各区域的增温幅度不一,增幅最大的区域是冀东平原区,最小的区域是河北省北部;各季气温变化呈现春、秋季平均气温变化程度相对比较平缓,冬季增温幅度最大的特点,自80年代末始,暖冬现象明显;在全球和中国气候将继续变暖的背景下,河北省气温估计未来50a升高在1～2℃之间。     

通辽市近50年气候变化分析

利用通辽市7个气象台站1959—2008年平均气温、降水量、日照时数资料,用趋势分析和累积距平、信噪比、F检验等方法,分析通辽市近50年的气候变化特征。结果表明:(1)年平均气温上升趋势显著,近50年增温1.9℃,且通过0.001显著检验,突变发生在1988年,近10年是最温暖时期。其中南部、西部升温较少,北部、东部升温较多。四季均温变化与年均温趋势一致,但略有差异。增温幅度最大为冬季,其次为春季,最小为夏季;突变时间最早为秋季、发生在1987年,最晚为夏季、发生在1994年。(2)年降水量呈减少趋势,近50年约减少71mm,且通过0.10信度检验,南部的库伦和北部的鲁北减少最为显著。四季降水量的变化不同步,夏、秋季减少,冬、春季稍有增加。年降水量呈阶段性变化,目前是降水量最少时期。年日照时数西南部及扎旗北部是增多的,其余地区明显减少。     

1971-2012年青藏高原春季风速的年际变化及对气候变暖的响应

利用青藏高原73个气象台站的观测资料和日本气象厅JRA-55再分析资料,通过引入年际增量和动能收支方程,分析了1971-2012年高原春季风速的年际变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应。结果表明,在气候变暖的背景下高原风速呈减弱的趋势,随着变暖趋缓风速的变化也趋于平稳。春季高原风速与气温的线性趋势是相反的,但在年际尺度上二者表现出同位相的变化,当青藏高原、中南半岛和印度半岛的地面气温偏高,北亚和东亚地区的地面气温偏低时,有利于高原地面风速增大,反之风速减小。20世纪末青藏高原及其周边地区的升温速率表现为北快南缓,高原南、北侧气温差异减小,而东、西向的气温差异增大,风速趋于减弱;21世纪初高原中部及其南侧地区以升温为主,高原东北侧和东亚地区以降温为主,南、北向气温差异较小,高原风速的变化也趋于平缓,东、西向气温差异有减小的趋势,对应高原东部风速有所增大。青藏高原及其邻近地区的热力差异及其变化速率的不均衡改变了对流层大气的斜压性,进而通过两种途径影响青藏高原的风速,一方面是近地面层气压梯度力的直接作用,另一方面是高层动能向低层的输送。此外,还指出JRA-55再分析风速资料比ERA-Interim和NCEP/NCAR资料在青藏高原的适用性更强。      

INTERDECADAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITIES OF AIR AND SEA AND THEIR RELATIONS OVER THE PACIFIC*

Regional differences and relations of the atmospheric and oceanic interdecadal and interannual variability in the Pacific are addressed in terms of period analysis and singular value decomposition(SVD) method.Results show that the interdecadal anomalies are more significant in the North Pacific(NP) than in the tropical Pacific(TP),and the interannual anomalies in the TP than in the NP in the variance of air-sea anomalies:the interdecadally variational character of a surface(shallow) layer sea and air is unanimous in the same season and region,and the transition of a high mode to a low one both occurred at the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s,with an exception for July in the NP,which is related to the stability of the stratification of sub-surface layer sea temperature:the interannual scale air-sea anomalies are associated with ENSO,which is most typical for January,then July in the TP,followed by January in the NP,and there is no visible relationships for July in the NP.     

河北牛驼镇与天津地热田水化学和氢氧同位素特征及其环境指示意义

本文分析了河北牛驼镇和天津两个中低温地热田水化学、氢氧同位素分布特征及其反映的地热水赋存环境。结果表明:两个地热田系统存在明显差异,从浅部第四系地下水到雾迷山组地热水存在各自的混合线。不同层位的浅层地下水、地热水物理混合作用明显。地热田蓟县系雾迷山组和奥陶系高温地热水与碳酸岩含水介质发生的水-岩相互作用,造成了δ18O发生飘移;馆陶组和明化镇组地热水主要是浅部第四系地下水与雾迷山组和奥陶系地热水发生混和作用的结果。牛驼镇地热田雾迷山组和奥陶系地热水中Cl~–和HCO_3~–含量增高的同时,SO_4~(2-)含量随之减小(0.20~1.30 mg/L),明显低于天津地热田雾迷山组及奥陶系地热水中的SO_4~(2-)含量(273~394 mg/L),指示牛驼镇地热田雾迷山组和奥陶系地热水发生了明显的脱硫酸作用。水化学、氢氧同位素分布特征揭示了牛驼镇地热田雾迷山组和奥陶系地热水处在还原环境中,与浅部第四系地下水水力联系弱,主要以侧向径流补给为主,而天津地热田奥陶系和雾迷山组地热水与浅部第四系地下水水力联系较强,同时存在垂向和侧向径流补给。牛驼镇和天津两个地热田均具有巨大的地热资源开发潜力,但在开发过程中要坚持资源环境并重的原则,保障地热资源的持续利用。